Working Papers - 1986 (#56 - #89)

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Macro Policy in a Dollarized Economy: The Experience of Bolivia

Kenneth P. Jameson

Working Paper #89 - December 1986


Currency substitution, or dollarization, has become a concern of macroeconomic policy in Latin America because of its impact on exchange rates and on the money supply. This paper reviews the experience of Bolivia and concludes that efforts to limit financial liberalization and currency substitution in a country with a weak state apparatus are likely to be destabilizing. The author examines the process of dollarization in Bolivia, details the effort to dedollarize the economy in 1982, and then traces the effects of the program on the development of informal exchange markets, on the banking system, and on the foreign exchange market.


La sustitución de la moneda, o dolarización, ha sido una preocupación de la política macroeconómica en Latinoamérica debido a su impacto en las tasas de cambio y en la oferta monetaria. Este ensayo reflexiona sobre la experiencia de Bolivia y concluye que el esfuerzo para limitar la liberalización financiera y la sustitución de la moneda en un país con un aparato estatal débil, es probable que sea desestabilizador. El autor analiza el proceso de dolarización en Bolivia, detalla los esfuerzos para desdolarizar la economía en 1982 y traza los efectos de este esfuerzo sobre los mercados informales de cambio, el sistema bancario y el mercado de divisas.

Kenneth P. Jameson, is a faculty fellow of the Kellogg Institute and a professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Notre Dame. The author would like to acknowledge the Jesse Jones Faculty Research Travel Fund of the University of Notre Dame for partial support of this research.

The Political Economy of Latin American Development: Seven Exercises in Retrospection

Albert O. Hirschman

Working Paper #88 - December 1986

This paper is a collaborative publication with The Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California, San Diego (Working Paper No. CE-03). The author wishes to express his gratitude to the Ford Foundation for the travel grant that supported his field interviewing in Latin America in April-May, 1986, and especially to the Foundation's representatives in Rio de Janeiro and Mexico for their helpfulness. He is also indebted to his Latin American friends and interlocutors for their readiness to share information and ideas.

The Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego, and the Helen Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame are extremely pleased to be making this working paper by Albert O. Hirschman available to the international scholarly and policy-making community.

This paper resulted from the most recent award of the Kalman Silvert Presidents' Prize, which is presented every 18 months by the Latin American Studies Association to a senior member of the profession who has made a distinguished lifetime contribution to the study of Latin America and to the advancement of the Latin American Studies profession generally. Albert Hirschman, Professor of Social Science, Emeritus, at the Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, was selected to receive the 1986 Silvert Award by a committee consisting of past LASA Presidents Wayne Cornelius (Chair), Helen Safa, and Peter Smith, and the current editor of the Latin American Research Review, Gilbert Merkx.

In its original form, this paper was requested by the Silvert Award committee for presentation at the 20th Anniversary International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association in Boston, Massachusetts, October 24, 1986. Professor Hirschman's analysis draws upon interviews which he conducted during a two-month field research trip to Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico in April-May, 1986, supported by a travel grant from the Ford Foundation.

The issues addressed in this paper are timely and controversial. Professor Hirschman's analysis is characteristically fresh and provocative, and merits wide attention as a corrective to much of what passes as the conventional wisdom on Latin America's current economic crisis.

Wayne A. Cornelius
Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies

Issues and Perspectives in Tanzanian Industrial Development-
With Special Reference to the Role of SADCC

Kwan S. Kim

Working Paper #87 - December 1986


This paper is concerned with the evaluation of Tanzania's industrialization strategies since 1967. After a brief review of the origins and evolution of past industrial strategies, it explores their implications for the emerging patterns of industrial development, examining in particular the structural characteristics and the nature of contradictions of Tanzanian industries. The focus of the paper is to trace causes for the industry's inadequate performance and to critically reevaluate past and current industrial policies, at the same time suggesting future options for Tanzania. In this context, the paper identifies the areas of potential contribution the Southern African regional economic cooperation scheme (SADCC) could make for Tanzanian industrial development. Other contextual issues discussed include roles of public vs. private enterprises and of small-scale vs. large-scale firms; choice of technologies; and human and physical infrastructural developments. Although the paper focuses on the longer-term perspectives, the analysis also deals with the short-term adjustment problems in coping with the current debt crisis.


Este ensayo examina las estrategias de industrialización en Tanzania desde 1967. Después de un breve repaso sobre los orígenes y la evolución de las estrategias industriales del pasado, explora sus implicaciones para los padrones emergentes del desarrollo industrial, examinando en particular la estructura característica y la naturaleza de la contradicción de las industrias en Tanzania. Se averigua las causas del desempeño inadecuado de la industria y se hace una revaluación crítica de la política industrial no solo del presente sino también del pasado, y a la vez sugiere diferentes opciones para el futuro de Tanzania. En este contexto, el trabajo identifica los aportes potenciales de la cooperación económica regional Sur Africana (SADCC) para el desarrollo industrial de Tanzania. También se discute el papel de la empresa pública versus la privada y de las firmas de pequeña escala versus las de grande escala; las opciones tecnológicas; y la infrasructura humana y física. Aunque el ensayo focaliza las perspectivas a largo plazo, también trata problemas de ajuste de corto plazo para enfrentar la presente deuda externa.

Kwan S. Kim is Associate Professor of Economics and faculty fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He has served as an economic consultant for governments of developing countries and for international agencies. He has published extensively in the areas of trade and development, and planning and industrialization, with a special interest in East Africa, East Asia and, recently, Mexico. He is editor of Papers on the Political Economy of Tanzania and Debt and Development in Latin America. His recent writings include Política industrial y desarrollo en Corea del Sur (Mexico City: NAFINSA and UNIDO, 1985).

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the conference on "Tanzania after Nyerere," organized by the School of Oriental and African Studies, London University, June 26-27, 1986. The author wishes to acknowledge the valuable comments of Professors Walter Elkan, Ian Livingstone and Peter Walshe. Some of the data and information were collected while the author was on a recent USAID mission in Tanzania, and he wishes to thank S. Tareq and P. Santoso for assisting in research and Dr. Chandra Hardy of the World Bank for providing relevant materials. The views expressed in the paper are solely those of the author.

Humanitarianism and Politics in Central America

Gil Loescher

Working Paper #86 - November 1986


Refugee assistance, in common with other humanitarian work, tends to be perceived as somehow apart from politics. However, as this paper demonstrates, the treatment of refugees and indeed their very existence are intensely political issues. The author concentrates on refugee policy in Central America, examining in detail the situation of refugees in Mexico, Honduras and Costa Rica-the various actors, their interests, and the effects on them of geopolitics, ideology and ethnic politics. He analyzes the attitude of the United States and its impact, the role of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the problems faced by voluntary agencies in their struggle for humanitarian "space," and the efforts of the refugee groups themselves, and concludes that only the return of peace and stability to Central America will ensure the protection of the region's refugees.


La asistencia a refugiados, como otras formas de trabajo humanitario, tiende a ser percibida como algo aparte de la política. Sin embargo como lo demuestra este ensayo, la ayudo a los refugiados y, hasta la existencia de los mismos, son asuntos intensamente políticos. El autor analiza la política de refugiados en América Central, examinando con detalle la situación de refugiados en México, Honduras y Costa Rica-los varios actores, sus intereses y los efectos sobre ellos de la geopolítica, la ideología y la política étnica. Se describe la actitud de los Estados Unidos y su impacto, el rol del Alto Comisionado para Refugiados de las Naciones Unidas, los problemas afrontados por agencias de voluntarios en su lucha por un "espacio humanitario" y los esfuerzos de los grupos de los mismos refugiados. Concluye que solamente el regreso de la paz y la estabilidad en América Central asequrará la protección de los refugiados en esa región.

Gil Loescher is an associate professor in the Department of Government and International Studies and a departmental fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He recently co-authored Calculated Kindness: Refugees and America's Half-Open Door (The Free Press, 1986).

Logics of Union Action in Chile

Guillermo Campero and René Cortázar

Working Paper #85 - October 1986


The acute crisis Chile faces at present has made the subjects of democratic alternatives and reconstruction a source of renewed concern. With regard to the latter, greater emphasis is being placed on perspectives upholding the need for the so-called "concertation" between the different social and political groups, with an aim to ensure adequate conditions of governability fora country that will remain under strong political and social tensions in the future, mainly as a result of the legacy of the authoritarian regime. From this perspective, we shall attempt to analyze the present situation of the trade union movement, its recent historical antecedents and its possible future evolution. Some of the questions that arise are: What were the logics of union action in the past? Will trade unions constitute one of the fundamental hubs of social and political "concertation" in Chile? What course of action will they choose to follow? What type of relations will they establish with the entrepreneurs and the political system? What social orientation will characterize union activity in the future? In the first section, we outline some of the elements that must be taken into account in order to establish a diagnosis of trade unionism, both in its present and pre-1973 situation. In the second section, a prospective analysis of union activity is developed. In both cases the aim is to set forth tentative hypotheses and to provide some possible interpretations of the trade union phenomenon, and on no account to present an air-tight case. Lastly, we should like to point out that this study does not contemplate agricultural or rural unionism. This subject has a specificity and complexity of its own, and will be analyzed in future research.


La aguda crisis por la que atraviesa Chile en la actualidad ha hecho rebrotar con fuerza los temas de las alternativas y la reconstrucción democrática. Dentro de este último, parecen desarrollarse con énfasis aquellas perspectivas que enfatizan la necesidad de la concertación entre los diversos actores sociales y políticos, de modo de asegurar condiciones de gobernabilidad a un país que, principalmente como resultado de las herencias que le deja el régimen autoritario, seguirá sometido en el futuro a fuertes tensiones políticas y sociales. Es en esa perspectiva que intentamos analizar la situación actual del movimiento sindical, sus antecedentes históricos recientes y su posible evolución futura. ¿Cuáles fueron las lógicas de acción sindical del sindicalismo en el pasado? ¿Se constituirá el movimiento sindical en uno de los ejes fundamentales de esa buscada concertación social y política en Chile? ¿Cuáles serán las orientaciones para la acción sindical, el tipo de relación con los empresarios y con el sistema político y la orientación societal que caracterizarán el movimiento sindical en el futuro? En una primera sección, reseñamos algunos elementos para un diagnóstico del sindicalismo, tanto de su situación actual como de aquélla previa a 1973. En la segunda sección se desarrolla un análisis prospectivo del movimiento sindical. En ambos casos se trata de plantear hipóteses tentativas y de sugerir algunas posibles interpretaciones del fenómeno sindical, más que de intentar demostraciones rigurosas. Por último, cabe mencionar que en este trabajo no nos hermos referido al sindicalismo agrícola o campesino, a pesar de su enorme importancia. Dada su especificidad y complejidad optamos por diferir su análisis para futuros estudios.

Guillermo Campero received his Ph.D. in Sociology from the University of Paris. He is Academic Director of ILET, ILO expert in Labor Relations and has been a visiting professor at the Universidad Autónoma de México and the University of Paris. His main research area is the sociology of social movements.

René Cortázar received his Ph.D. in Economics from MIT. He is a researcher at CIEPLAN, and has been a visiting professor at the Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro and a visiting fellow of the Kellogg Institute in 1983, 1984 and again in 1986. His main research areas are labor economics and macroeconomics.

This work forms part of CIEPLAN's research in the area of "Development Strategies and Democracy," and received the support of the Ford Foundation. A previous version was presented at the workshop on "Labor Relations in Contemporary Latin America," organized by the Kellogg Institute of the University of Notre Dame in March 1985; at the "CLACSO Labor Movement Commission Seminar" in May 1985, and at a CIEPLAN seminar. We are grateful for the numerous comments we received from the participants in these events.

Urban Popular Movements, Identity, and Democratization in Brazil

Scott Mainwaring

Working Paper #84 - October 1986


This paper addresses the political impact and limits of grassroots popular movements in Brazil during the past decade. In the second half of the 1970s, as Brazil's military regime promoted a gradual process of political liberalization, grassroots popular movements burgeoned, generating widespread hopes among the forces that opposed the regime. Nearly a decade after this initial wave of optimism, it has become apparent that the earlier expectations have not been born out. The author analyzes why this has been the case. He argues that although a wide amalgam of social movements did oppose the military regime and did work towards democratization, their enormous heterogeneity made unity difficult to attain, except for very short times and for very specific conditions. Despite egregious poverty and inequalities, the popular classes have had difficulty creating a political identity based on common interests. Moreover, the state has intentionally pursued a policy of dividing social movements, and political parties have generally reinforced the fragmentation and isolation of grassroots movements. While underscoring these limits in grassroots movements, the author also argues that they have helped the popular classes conquer a sense of common identity and citizenship, and that they have helped put popular issues on the political agenda to a greater extent than in previous years.


Este ensayo considera el impacto político y las limitaciones políticas de los movimientos populares de base en Brasil durante la década pasada. Durante la segunda mitad de la década de los setenta, cuando el régimen militar de Brasil promovía un proceso gradual de liberalización política, movimientos populares de base se fortalecieron, generando amplias esperanzas entre las fuerzas que se oponían al régimen. Cerca de una década después de esta onda inicial de optimismo, es aparente que las expectativas de antes no se han realizado. El autor analiza el por qué de este caso. Arguye que aunque una amplia amalgama de movimientos sociales se opuso al régimen militar y trabajó a favor de la democratización, su enorme heterogeneidad hizo difícil lograr la unidad, a no ser por períodos de tiempo muy cortos y en condiciones muy específicas. A pesar de la tremenda pobreza y la desigualdad que marcan la sociedad brasileña, para las clases populares les ha sido muy difícil crear una identidad política basada en intereses comunes. Por otra parte, el estado ha seguido intencionadamente una política de división de movimientos sociales, y los partidos políticos generalmente han reforzado la fragmentación y aislación de los movimientos populares. Mientras subraya estas limitaciones en los movimientos populares de base, el autor también arguye que ellos han ayudado a las clases populares a conquistar un sentido de ciudadanía común, y que han ayudado a colocar los asuntos populares en la agenda política en un grado mayor que en años anteriores.

Scott Mainwaring is Assistant Professor of Government and Member of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. His book, The Catholic Church and Politics in Brazil, 1916-1985, was published by Stanford University Press in 1986. He has published numerous articles on transitions to democracy, social movements, and Latin American politics.

Caroline Domingo, Peter Evans, Frances Hagopian, Margaret Keck, Daniel Levine, Guillermo O'Donnell, and Eduardo Viola provided helpful criticisms.

Religion and Popular Protest in Latin America

Daniel H. Levine and Scott Mainwaring

Working Paper #83 - September 1986


For centuries, religion stood as a bulwark for conservatism in Latin America. In recent decades, this has changed, as the Catholic Church in a number of countries has actively supported and legitimated popular protest. However, the nature of ecclesiastical change and the relationship between the Church and popular protest differ sharply from one country to the next. This paper examines the relationship between the Church (especially its ecclesial base communities, or CEBs) and popular protest, focusing on two sharply contrasting cases. In Brazil, Church progressives have played a dominant role, and in Colombia, conservative Church leaders have systematically prevented grassroots Church groups from participating actively in popular protest. The paper begins with some theoretical reflections on the relationship between the institutional and popular components of the Church, and on the relationship between informal protest and institutional politics. The authors then provide an overview of the nature, origins, and religious character of CEBs. Through individual life histories, they then analyze the role of CEBs in empowering popular protest in Brazil, and the tight ecclesiastical control over popular Church groups in Colombia.


Por siglos, la religión ha permanecido como un baluarte de conservadurismo en Latinoamérica. En décadas recientes esto ha cambiado, ya que la Iglesia Católica en varios países ha apoyado y legitimado activamente la protesta popular. Sin embargo, la naturaleza del cambio eclesial y la relación entre la Iglesia y la protesta popular difieren mucho de un país a otro. Este ensayo examina la relación entre la Iglesia (especialmente sus comunidades eclesiales de base, "CEBs") y la protesta popular, enfocando dos casos contrastantes. En Brasil, religiosos progresistas han jugado un papel predominante, mientras que en Colombia, líderes eclesiásticos conservadores han impedido sistemáticamente la participación activa en la protesta popular de las CEBs. El ensayo comienza con algunas reflexiones teóricas sobre la relación entre los componentes institucionales de la Iglesia y lo popular, y sobre la relación entre la protesta informal y la política institucional. Los autores entonces pasan a dar una vista sintética de la naturaleza, los orígenes, y el carácter religioso de las CEBs. A través de historias individuales, ellos analizan el rol de las CEBs en el fortalecimiento de la protesta popular en Brasil y el control eclesiástico ejercido sobre los grupos religiosos populares en Colombia.

Daniel H. Levine is Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan. He is author of Conflict and Political Change in Venezuela (Princeton University Press, 1973) and Religion and Politics in Latin America: The Catholic Church in Venezuela and Colombia (Princeton University Press, 1981), as well as editor of Churches and Politics in Latin America (Sage, 1980) and Religion and Political Conflict in Latin America (University of North Carolina Press, 1986).

Scott Mainwaring is Assistant Professor of Government and Member of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He is author of The Catholic Church and Politics in Brazil, 1916-1985 (Stanford University Press, 1986).

The authors wish to thank Thomas Bruneau, Caroline Domingo, Susan Eckstein, Suzanne Marilley, Peter Walshe, and Alexander Wilde for helpful criticisms.

Mexico: The Debt Crisis And Options For Development Strategy

Kwan S. Kim

Working Paper #82 - September 1986


This paper highlights elements of macroeconomic policy issues facing Mexico in coping with its debt crisis. The author begins with a brief introduction to the origins and evolution of the crisis, and goes on to provide an overview of its socioeconomic impacts in Mexico and an examination of its implications for Mexico's future development. The concluding section of the paper critically evaluates Mexico's options for development strategy. One aspect of the debt crisis which particularly concerns the author is the economic interdependence between Mexico and its neighbor, the United States, and consequently the need for their mutual collaboration if the crisis is to be resolved.


Este ensayo destaca elementos de la política macroeconómica que enfrenta México debido a su deuda externa. Empezando con un sumario de los orígenes y de la evolución de la crisis, nos provee con una vista general de los impactos económicos de la deuda externa en México y examina sus implicaciones para su futuro desarrollo. El trabajo evalua de forma crítica las opciones de México para una estrategia de desarrollo. Un aspecto de la deuda externa que se enfatiza es la interdependencia económica entre México y los Estados Unidos, y por lo tanto, la necesidad de una mutua colaboración en la resolución de esta crisis.

Kwan S. Kim is Associate Professor of Economics and faculty fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He has served as an economic consultant for governments of developing countries and for international agencies. He has published extensively in the areas of trade and development, planning and industrialization, with a special interest in East Africa, East Asia and, recently, Mexico. He is editor of Papers on the Political Economy of Tanzania and Debt and Development in Latin America. His recent writings include Política industrial y desarrollo en Corea del Sur (Mexico City: NAFINSA and UNIDO, 1985).

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the conference on External Debt in Mexico, UNAM, Mexico City, May 18-22, 1986.

The Rise and Fall of Capital Markets in the Southern Cone

Joseph Ramos

Working Paper #81 - September 1986


This paper analyzes the attempts in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay in the 1970s to solve the problem of slow growth by liberalizing the economic system. Neoconservative policymakers in these countries sought to abolish the interventionist paradigm which had prevailed since the Great Depression. They particularly criticized the previous policy of "financial repression" and argued that the capital market, the central mechanism for allocating financial resources, should not be determined by the discretional authority of the government but by the forces of supply and demand. Thus, an important part of their policy from the beginning was to create domestic capital markets and open them up to the outside world. The resulting financial systems were in a state of total collapse by the time the neoconservative experiences came to a close: Real interest rates remained high throughout the period without producing corresponding advantages and despite large capital inflows from abroad. The author agrees that the domestic capital markets were repressed and underdeveloped at the start. However, he argues that financial liberalization should not take place without first (1) stabilizing prices; (2) overcoming segmentation within the domestic capital market and between the domestic and international markets; (3) ensuring the operation of long term capital markets; (4) enforcing banking regulations; and (5) introducing alternative mechanisms to ensure that liberalizing interest rates will in fact increase national savings and investment rather than simply releasing consumption demand.


Este trabajo analiza los esfuerzos en Argentina, Chile y Uruguay en los años setentas por resolver el problema del lento crecimiento mediante la liberalización del sistema económico. Las políticas neoconservadoras de estos países procuraron abolir el paradigma intervencionista que había prevalecido desde la Gran Depresión. Los equipos económicos particularmente criticaron la política anterior de "represión financiera" y argumentaron que el mercado del capital, el mecanismo central para asignar los recursos financieros, no debería ser determinado por la autoridad discrecional del gobierno, sino por las fuerzas de la oferta y la demanda. Así, una parte importante de su política, desde el principio, fue la de crear mercados nacionales de capital y abrirlos al mundo exterior. Cuando las experiencias neoconservadoras llegaron a su conclusión los sistemas financieros se encontraban en un estado de colapso total: las tasas de interés real permanecieron altas durante todo el período sin producir las ventajas correspondientes y a pesar de las grandes afluencias de capital del extranjero. El autor está de acuerdo en que los mercados nacionales de capital se encontraban reprimidos y subdesarrollados al principio. Sin embargo, argumenta que la liberalización financiera no debería tener lugar sin primero (1) estabilizar los precios; (2) superar la segmentación dentro del mercado nacional de capital y entre los mercados nacional e internacional; (3) asegurar la operación de mercados de capital a largo plazo; (4) hacer valer los reglamentos bancarios; (5) introducir mecanismos alternativos para asegurar que la liberalización de las tasas de interés de hecho incremente el ahorro y la inversión nacionales, en vez de simplemente liberar la demanda de consumo.

Joseph Ramos is an economist (Ph.D., Columbia 1968) with 17 years of teaching and consulting experience in Latin America. He is currently with the United Nation's ECLA in Santiago, Chile. His work has generally been in macroeconomics (employment, stabilization and adjustment policies), though he also has a long-standing interest in Catholic social teaching. His latest publication was a book published by ECLA entitled Estabilización y liberalización económica en el Cono Sur (UN, 1984, Santiago).

Notas Historicas Sobre o Conceito de Cultura Popular

Renato Ortiz

Working Paper #80 - September 1986


This paper analyzes the historical origins and evolution of the concept of "popular culture," beginning with late seventeenth century usages. The author traces the development of the concept during the romantic period, and goes on to discuss the first attempts at "scientific" investigations of popular culture in the late nineteenth century. He then analyzes the folklorists' view of methodology and science in the treatment of popular culture, and the early relationship between folklore and anthropology.


Este ensayo analiza los orígenes históricos y la evolución del concepto de "cultura popular," a partir de los usos de finales del siglo diecisiete. El autor traza el desarrollo del concepto durante el período romántico y pasa a discutir los primeros intentos de investigación "científica" de la cultura popular a fines del siglo diecinueve. Luego se analiza la perspectiva del folklorista acerca de la ciencia y la metodología en el tratamiento de la cultura popular, y la relación inicial entre folklor y antropología.

Renato Ortiz is a professor of anthropology at the Pontifícia Universidade Católica in São Paulo, Brazil. He is the author of A Consciência Fragmentada, A Morte Branca do Feiticeiro Negro, and Cultura Brasileira e Identidade Nacional, among other works. He was a fellow of the Kellogg Institute during the fall 1984 semester.

Carnaval as a Cultural Problem: Towards a Theory of Formal Events and Their Magic

Roberto DaMatta

Working Paper #79 - September 1986


This paper is a study of the Brazilian Carnaval from the perspective of social anthropology. The author contends that Carnaval, while clearly a major social phenomenon, is difficult to analyze because it does not express seriousness, a sense of religious mystery or a well-defined purpose but rather laughter, grotesquerie and sensuality, which seems to pose the question of whether it can be considered a real ritual. In the course of answering this question he examines a number of cultural oppositions-for example "above the waist"/"below the waist," acceptable/taboo, rational/emotional, static/relational, formal/spontaneous, social/individual-and points out that the theories of some social anthropologists tend to reinforce the belief that such oppositions amount to mutual exclusion. He argues on the contrary that it is necessary to recognize the paradox of social situations whose essence is to mix these categories in order to reach an understanding of "rituals of reversal," and also that social occasions should be studied both in terms of the behavior that they prescribe as appropriate and the behavior that they exclude. Against this background the paper presents a detailed analysis of Carnaval, and in particular the Carnaval Ball, and its function in relation to Brazilian life as a whole. The concluding section discusses the logic and human significance created by rituals and their magic.


Este ensayo es un estudio del Carnaval Brasileño según la perspectiva de la antropología social. El autor sostiene que el Carnaval, aunque es claramente un fenómeno social importante, es difícil de analizar porque no expresa seriedad, ni un sentido de misterio religioso ni un propósito bien definido, sino más bien la risa, lo grotesco, y la sensualidad, lo cual parece poner en duda si debe considerarse un verdadero ritual. Al contestar esta pregunta el autor examina varias oposiciones culturales-por ejemplo "arriba de la cintura/debajo de la cintura," aceptable/tabú, racional/ emocional, estático/correlativo, formal/espontáneo, social/individual-y señala que las teorías de algunos antropólogos sociales tienden a reforzar la creencia de que tales oposiciones implican exclusión mutua. El autor argumenta por el contrario que es necesario reconocer la paradoja de situaciones sociales cuya característica básica es la de mezclar estas categorías para alcanzar una mejor comprensión de "rituales de inversión," y también que las ocasiones sociales deben ser estudiadas en términos del comportamiento que ellas ordenan como apropiados y del comportamiento que ellas excluyen. En este contexto el ensayo presenta un análisis detallado del Carnaval, y en particular del Baile de Carnaval, y su función en relación a la vida brasileña en conjunto. La sección final discute la lógica y el significado humano creados por los rituales y su magia.

Roberto DaMatta teaches Social Anthropology at the National Museum in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. He has been working on symbolic structures and ideologies of Indian tribes and has written extensively on the Apinayé and Gaviões Indians of Central Brazil. He is also studying the cultures of Brazil and the United States. Among his recent publications are O que faz o brasil, Brasil? (Fiat/Salamandra); Carnavais, Malandros e Heróis (Rio: Zahar); Relativizando (Petrópolis: Vozes); A Casa e a Rua (São Paulo: Brasiliense), and Explorações (Rio: Rocco). He recently wrote the scripts for two series of television programs on Brazil, The Brazilians (TV Manchete) and Our Amazon (TV Bandeirantes). From January to May 1986 he was a faculty fellow of the Kellogg Institute. He would like to thank Carl O'Nell, Margaret Keck and Caroline Domingo for their helpful comments on this paper. An earlier version was presented at the symposium on Text, Play and Story at the American Ethnological Society's 105th Annual Meeting in Baton Rouge, Louisiana in February, 1983.

A Simple Macro Model for a Semi-Industrialized Economy Facing a Binding External Constraint

Patricio Meller and Andrés Solimano

Working Paper #78 - August 1986


This work uses a macroeconomic (Keynesian) model for a small open economy to describe the short run functioning of the economy when it faces a dominant external restriction. The main conclusions are the following: (1) In the model, a devaluation can be counterproductive considering that (i) in an economy without complete wage indexation, a devaluation produces a reduction of real wages, a contraction of consumption and a decline in aggregate demand, and (ii) a devaluation can produce a deterioration in the commercial balance in the short run if the price elasticity of the commercial balance is low enough. (2) When the economy enters a situation of external disequilibrium, to overcome this disequilibrium, the combination of exchange and fiscal policy which minimizes the decline in income depends on the magnitude of the devaluation. (3) In an economy in which the export industries use imported goods for their production, the potential impact of a uniform increase in tariffs on income is ambiguous. The income effect of the tariff increase will be positive if (i) the cost of production of the domestic goods which are (imperfect) substitutions of the goods exchanged through the market is relatively labor intensive; (ii) the imports are relatively more price elastic than the exports, and (iii) the positive income effect increases as the initial commercial deficit does. (4) When a small open economy encounters a limited external restriction, there is a tradeoff between increases in real wages and increases in the level of employment.


En este trabajo se utiliza un modelo macroeconómico (keynesiano) para una pequeña economía abierta, que describe el funcionamiento de la parte real de la economía en el corto plazo, cuando ésta enfrenta una restricción externa dominante. Las principales conclusiones de este trabajo son las siguientes: (1) En el modelo, una devaluación puede ser contraccionaria en el corto plazo, al considerar los siguientes dos efectos: (i) En una economía sin indexación completa de salarios, una devaluación produce una reducción de salarios reales, una contracción del consumo y una caída de la demanda agregada. (ii) Una devaluación puede producir un deterioro de la balanza comercial en pesos en el corto plazo si las elasticidades precio de la balanza comercial son suficientemente pequeña. (2) Cuando la economía presenta una situación de desequilibrio externo, para eliminar éste, la combinación de política cambiaria y fiscal que minimiza la caída del producto depende de la magnitud de la devaluación. (3) En una economía en que las industrias exportadoras utilizan insumos importados en su producción, el efecto potencial de un aumento uniforme de aranceles sobre el producto es ambiguo. El efecto del aumento de aranceles sobre el producto será positivo si: (i) El costo de producción de los bienes domésticos que son sustitutos (imperfectos) de los bienes transables en los mercados es relativamente intensivo en trabajo. (ii) Las importaciones son relativamente más elásticas a precios que las exportaciones. (iii) Mientras mayor sea el déficit inicial de la balanza comercial. (4) Cuando una pequeña economía abierta enfrenta una restricción externa limitante, hay un "tradeoff" entre aumentos del salario real e incrementos del nivel de empleo.

Patricio Meller is a senior research economist at CIEPLAN, Santiago, Chile. During 1980-81 he was a Visiting Associate Professor at CLADS and the Department of Economics at Boston University, and during 1975-76 he was a Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research (New York). He is doing research on employment problems and macroeconomic models for Latin American economies. In April-May 1985 he was a faculty fellow at the Kellogg Institute.

Andrés Solimano is a Research Associate at PREALC-ILO, Santiago, Chile and an Associate Professor of the Institute of Economics at the Catholic University of Santiago. During 1982-83 and in 1985, he was a Research Fellow at CIEPLAN, Santiago, Chile. He does research in the areas of macroeconomic models for Latin American economies, labor markets, and econometrics.

This work forms part of CIEPLAN's area of research in macroeconomics, employment and international economy and received the support of the International Development Research Centre. Preliminary versions were presented at CLADS (Boston University), the Department of Economics at the University of Notre Dame and at CIEPLAN. The authors thank René Cortázar, John Harris, Joseph Ramos, Daniel Schydlowsky and CIEPLAN colleagues for their comments. Of course, the authors are solely responsible for the paper's content.

The Mexican Charrazo of 1948: Latin American Labor from World War to Cold War

Ian Roxborough

Working Paper #77 - August 1986


This paper discusses labor history in Mexico in the years before, during and immediately following the Second World War. The author argues that the intervention by the Secretaría del Trabajo y Provisión Social in the Sindicato Ferrocarrilero in 1948 marks a major turning point in the trajectory of Mexican labor. He suggests the possibility that a number of other countries experienced similar, dramatic upheavals in labor relations at around the same time, and explores the implications of this possibility for theories of comparative labor movements. The paper begins with descriptions of the left-right splits in the Mexican labor movement at the end of the Cárdenas period, and the effects of the War on Mexican labor. The author goes on to discuss the restructuring of the Mexican state and economy during this time and in the immediate post-War period, and describes in detail the cluster of events in Mexican unionism around the Charrazo. The paper concludes with a section on possible similarities in other countries and with some speculative remarks raised by the comparative questions.


Este trabajo discute la historia laboral en México en los años anteriores, durante e inmediatamente después de la Segunda Guerra Mundial. El autor argumenta que la intervención por parte de la Secretaría del Trabajo y Previsión Social en el Sindicato Ferrocarrilero en 1948 marca un cambio crucial en la historia de las relaciones laborales en México. El autor sugiere la posibilidad de que otros países experimentaron un trastorno dramático similar en sus relaciones laborales por la misma época, y explora las implicaciones de esta posibilidad para teorías comparativas de movimientos obreros. El trabajo comienza con descripciónes de las divisiones entre izquierda y derecha en el movimiento obrero Mexicano al final del período de Cárdenas, y de los efectos de la guerra sobre las relaciones laborales en México. El autor pasa después a la discusión de la reestructuración del Estado y la economía mexicanos durante este período y durante el período inmediatamente posterior a la Guerra, y analiza el impacto del Charrazo en el sindicalismo mexicano. Se concluye con una sección sobre posibles similitudes en otros países y con algunos comentarios expeculativos suscitados por las cuestiones comparativas.

Ian Roxborough teaches at the London School of Economics and Political Science, England. From January to May 1985 he was a fellow of the Kellogg Institute.

Private Goods, Public Goods and the Common Good: Another Look at Economics and Ethics in Catholic Social Teaching

Ernest Bartell, CSC

Working Paper #76 - August 1986


There has been an evolution in the methodology of Catholic social thought over the past century that needs to be taken into account when the ethical concept of the common good in Catholic social teaching is applied to contemporary economic, social and political issues. While the early papal social documents relied primarily upon deductive analysis within a scholastic natural law tradition, recent documents, including those emanating from regional conferences of bishops in the United States and Latin America, attempt to incorporate both biblical theology and positive analysis from the social sciences into moral and ethical discourse. During the same period some positive analysis within the social sciences has moved more closely into ethical discourse, especially with the extension of the normative criteria of market economics into theories of rational choice as applied to concepts of social justice and welfare in political science and social analysis. It is tempting then to perceive a convergence in the two approaches to ethical discourse. A closer look, however, suggests that they may still be separated by basic differences in value premises about the relation of the individual person to society.


Ha habido una evolución en la metodología del pensamiento social católico en el último siglo que necesita ser tomado en cuenta cuando se aplica el concepto ético del bien común en la enseñanza social católica a cuestiones económicas, sociales y políticas contemporáneas. Mientras que los primeros documentos sociales papales se basaban principalmente en análisis deductivos dentro de una tradición escolástica de derecho natural, recientes documentos, incluyendo aquellos surgidos en conferencias regionales de obispos en los Estados Unidos y Latinoamérica, intentan incorporar tanto la teología bíblica como el análisis positivo de las ciencias sociales, en el discurso moral y ético. Durante el mismo período algunos análisis positivos dentro de las ciencias sociales se han acercado más al discurso ético, especialmente con la extensión del criterio normativo de economías de mercado a teorías de selección racional tal como se aplica a conceptos de la justicia social y el bienestar en las ciencias políticas y el análisis social. Es tentador entonces percibir una convergencia en los dos acercamientos al discurso ético. Una evaluación cuidadosa sin embargo, indica que los dos pueden estar separados todavía por diferencias básicas en sus premisas valorativas acerca de la relación entre el individuo y la sociedad.

Father Ernest Bartell is the Executive Director of the Kellogg Institute and Professor of Economics at the University of Notre Dame. He has published numerous articles on Catholic social teaching.

This paper was first presented at a symposium on "Catholic Social Teaching and the Common Good," held at Notre Dame in April 1986 under the auspices of the Center for Ethics and Religious Values in Business. The proceedings of the symposium, including this paper, will be published later this year in a book edited by John Houck and Oliver Williams (University Press of America, forthcoming).

Indexing as an Instrument for Stabilization Policy: A Survey of Theoretical Developments and International Experience During the Past Decade

Paul D. McNelis

Working Paper #75 - August 1986


This paper surveys the literature on indexing as an instrument for stabilization policy during the past decade. The first part of the paper concentrates on the effects of wage indexing on macroeconomic stability and the comparative advantages of indexing and exchange rate policy. The second part presents a survey of recent international experience with indexing. The theoretical literature states that indexing is a macroeconomic policy instrument, and its effectiveness and advisability depend on an integrated view of a country's stabilization goals, sensitivity to fluctuations in financial markets, and linkages with foreign economies. Recent international experience shows that the relationship between indexing policy and inflationary dynamics varies among different countries. While disinflation may be enhanced by a reduced degree of indexing for wages or assets, there is need to spell-out the timing and sequencing of disindexation in the design of a stabilization program.


Este trabajo revisa la literatura sobre la indexación como instrumento para las políticas de estabilización durante la última década. La primera parte del trabajo focaliza los efectos de la indexación salarial sobre la estabilidad macroeconómica y las ventajas comparativas de la indexación de la política cambial. La segunda parte presenta una revisión de las experiencias internacionales recientes con la indexación. La literatura teórica afirma que la indexación es un instrumento de la política macroeconómica y que su eficacia depende de una visión integrada de las metas estabalizadoras del país, de la sensibilidad a las fluctuaciones en los mercados financieros y de las vinculaciones con las economías de otros países. La experiencia internacional reciente demuestra que la relación entre la política de indexación y la dinámica inflacionaria varía entre las diversos países. La desinflación puede ser acentuada por un grado reducido de la indexación de los salarios o los activos, pero se precisa explicitar la secuencia de la desindexación en la formulación del programa de estabilización.

Paul McNelis is Associate Professor of Economics at Georgetown University. In the spring of 1985 he was a guest scholar at the Kellogg Institute.

Research for this paper was supported by a Fulbright Senior Fellowship on Latin American Inflation and Stabilization Policy. David Bigman, Paul DeGrauwe, Alan Gelb, Jurg Niehans, and Marius Schwartz made helpful suggestions on earlier versions of this manuscript. I am also grateful to Joshua Aizenman, Jacob Frenkel, Ephraim Kleiman, and Zalman Shiffer for helpful conversations. This paper was revised during a visit to the Department of Economics and the Kellogg Institute of the University of Notre Dame.

De la Crisis de Malvinas a la Subordinacion Condicionada: Conflictos Intramilitares y Transicion Politica en Argentina

Andrés Fontana

Working Paper #74 - August 1986


This paper analyzes the political transition in Argentina (1982-1983), concentrating particularly on three aspects: (a) the overthrow of the authoritarian regime as a result of the post-Malvinas crisis within the military; (b) the internal logic of the military leadership's decisions with respect to the transition; (c) the centrality of the human rights question and the hermetic and homogeneous nature of discourse about human rights within the armed forces. The conclusion indicates the consequences of these three aspects of the transition process for the new democratic regime.


El trabajo analiza la transición política en Argentina (1982-1983), prestando particular atención a tres aspectos: (a) el "derrumbe" del régimen autoritario como resultado de la crisis intramilitar pos-Malvinas; (b) la lógica interna de las decisiones de los mandos militares con respecto a la transición; (c) la centralidad de la cuestión derechos humanos y el carácter hermético y homogéneo que tiene el discurso sobre ese tema en el seno de la corporación militar. Las conclusiones del trabajo señalan las consecuencias de esos tres aspectos del proceso de transición con respecto al nuevo escenario político que se estructura con la instauración del régimen democrático.

Andrés Fontana is Assistant Researcher at CEDES (Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad) and a professor at the University of Buenos Aires. His principal research interests are the armed forces and politics. From February to December 1983 he was a fellow of the Kellogg Institute.

An earlier draft of this paper was presented at an international seminar on "Military Autonomy and Democracy in Latin America" held in Santiago, Chile, May 22-25, 1985.

The Consolidation of Democracy in Latin America
-A Rapporteur's Report-

Scott Mainwaring

Working Paper #73 - July 1986


In recent years, many Latin American countries have undergone transitions to democracy. One of the outstanding questions about these new democracies is whether they will be consolidated or, as has often happened in the past, be short-lived, only to give rise to a new round of authoritarianism. To discuss this issue and a number of related questions, Guillermo O'Donnell and José Nun have coordinated a working group on "Opportunities and Dilemmas in the Consolidation of Democracy in Latin America." This paper is a rapporteur's report based on the first meeting of this working group, held in São Paulo, December 16-17, 1985. The paper synthesizes the main discussions and debates of that meeting.


En los últimos años, varios países latinoamericanos han experimentado transiciones a regímenes democráticos. En este contexto, se plantea la pregunta si las nuevas democracias se van a consolidar o si, tal como ha acontecido muchas veces en el pasado, van a durar poco, para después sufrir otra experiencia autoritaria. Para discutir este asunto y varios problemas afines, Guillermo O'Donnell y José Nun están coordinando un grupo de trabajo sobre "Oportunidades y Dilemas en la Consolidación Democrática en América Latina." El presente trabajo es un informe que se basa en la primera reunión de este grupo de trabajo, realizada en São Paulo, el 16 y 17 de diciembre de 1985. El trabajo sintetiza las principales discusiones y debates de dicha reunión.

Scott Mainwaring is the author of The Catholic Church and Politics in Brazil, 1916-1985 (Stanford University Press, 1986), as well as numerous articles on transitions to democracy, social movements, and the Catholic Church. He is Assistant Professor of Government and Member of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He wishes to thank Caroline Domingo, Rosario Espinal, Albert Hirschman, Guillermo O'Donnell, Luis Pásara, Philippe Schmitter, and Laurence Whitehead for their comments.

The External Debt Problem from a Latin American Viewpoint

Alejandro Foxley

Working Paper #72 - July 1986


The starting point for this paper is Latin America's present economic situation of poor growth prospects combined with a severe and continuing external debt crisis. The author evaluates the strategy implemented so far and examines alternative theories about its failure to resolve the crisis. He puts the arguments in the context of economic and political changes affecting individual countries and the region as a whole. He discusses the phenomenon of "adjustment fatigue," the effects of the dual conditionality imposed by the international banks and the IMF, and the probable effects of the conditions attached to recent proposals; and concludes with some practical suggestions for future policy.


El punto de partida de esta ensayo es la situación económica actual en América Latina de pobres prospectos de crecimiento, combinados con una severa y continua crisis de deuda externa. El autor evalua la estrategia implementada hasta ahora, y examina teorías alternativas por el cual fracasó en resolver la crisis. Situa los argumentos en el contexto de cambios económicos y políticos que afectan países individuales y la región en su totalidad. Discute el fenómeno de "fatiga de ajuste," los efectos de la doble condicionalidad impuesta por los bancos internacionales y el FMI, y los probables efectos de las condiciones adjuntas a recientes proposiciones; y concluye con algunas sugerencias prácticas para la política del futuro venidero.

Alejandro Foxley holds the Helen Kellogg Institute Chair in International Development and is a Professor of Economics at the University of Notre Dame. He is also President of CIEPLAN (Corporación de Investigaciones Económicas para Latinoamérica).

This paper was prepared for the Inter-American Dialogue and written at the Kellogg Institute. The author would like to thank José Pablo Arellano, Colin Bradford, René Cortázar, José María Dagnino-Pastore, Robert Devlin, Richard Feinberg, Ricardo Ffrench-Davis, Peter Hakim, C. Ossa and Konrad Stenzel for their comments and suggestions. The author alone, however, is responsible for the contents.

Rural Women and Migration in Latin America: Research Review and Agenda

María de los Angeles Crummett

Working Paper #71 - June 1986


This essay examines the role of Latin American rural women in migration, with particular emphasis on rural-urban migration. It poses two questions: 1) What are the determinants of female migration and do they differ from those affecting men? 2) What is the impact of migration on women's roles and status in the community of origin? It addresses these questions through an overview of the literature and concludes that gender has not been a category of analysis in most migration studies. This lack of attention to gender has led to the erroneous assumption that the differences between male and female migration are insignificant. A concluding section outlines several research areas that require further analysis in order to better understand women's roles in migration.


El presente trabajo examina el rol de la mujer en la migración rural-urbana en América Latina. Se trata de determinar y analizar dos facetas de la migración rural-urbana: 1) los factores que afectan la migración femenina y 2) el impacto de la migración sobre el rol de la mujer en la comunidad de origen. Estos temas son primeramente enfocados mediante una revisión de la literatura y se concluye que existe un vacío en ésta en cuanto no se ha considerado la categoría de género en los estudios de migración. Esta omisión ha implicado, equivocadamente, que no existen diferencias entre la migración femenina y la migración masculina. La última sección del ensayo esboza varios temas que requieren una mayor investigación para llegar a comprender mejor el tema de la mujer y la migración.

María de los Angeles Crummett teaches in the Department of Economics at the Graduate Faculty, New School for Social Research in New York. During 1984-85 she was a faculty fellow of the Kellogg Institute and coordinated the conference "Feminist Theory, State Policy and Rural Women in Latin America," held at the Kellogg Institute in February 1985. This paper was first presented at the 45 Congreso Internacional de Americanistas in Bogotá, Colombia, July 1-7, 1985. The author would like to extend special thanks to Frances Hagopian for her many useful comments on the paper.

The Soul of Chile

Raúl Cardinal Silva Henriquez


The Imperative of Solidarity

Monsignor Cristián Precht Banados

Working Paper #70 - May 1986

The content of this Kellogg Working Paper is not typical. Rather than presenting a piece of research or scholarship, this document offers public addresses by two leaders of the Catholic Church in Chile. Raúl Cardinal Silva is archbishop emeritus of the Archdiocese of Santiago, having served in that office both during and after the last democratically elected government in Chile. Monsignor Cristián Precht is currently vicar of the Archdiocese of Santiago, having served previously as head of the Vicariate for Solidarity, the human rights arm of the Archdiocese.

These addresses were delivered in March, 1986 at St. George's College in Santiago, Chile. They were offered as part of a seminar on the Bases of Democracy for invited Chilean university student leaders, co-sponsored by the Kellogg Institute, CIEPLAN and St. George's College. The addresses have been translated by Timothy Scully, C.S.C., of the Political Science Department of the University of California at Berkeley and are also available in Spanish from CIEPLAN in Santiago.

Colombia y Los Estados Unidos en la Guerra de Corea

Carlos Horacio Urán

Working Paper #69 - May 1986


This paper analyzes Colombia's role in the Korean War, seen as a response to United States pressures. The author first examines why the U.S. pushed Latin American countries in general to participate in the war and discusses the extent to which they did, in fact, participate. He then turns to the specific case of Colombia and considers the internal repercussions of this country's participation.


Este trabajo analiza el papel que desempeñó Colombia en la Guerra de Corea. El autor examina la razón por la cual los EE.UU. empujar los países latinoamericanos a participar en la guerra, como también la magnitud de esta participación. Luego se concentra en el caso colombiano y considera las repercusiones internas que tuvo la participación de este país en la guerra.

Carlos Horacio Urán worked as a Legal Adviser to Colombia's Council of State and wrote extensively about Colombian history and about social justice in the context of the contemporary political situation. In Spring 1985 he was a guest scholar of the Kellogg Institute. He was killed in the army-guerrilla violence at the Palace of Justice in Bogotá in November 1985.

Escenarios, Sujetos, Desenlaces (Reflexiones Sobre la Crisis Centroamericana)

Edelberto Torres-Rivas

Working Paper #68 - March 1986


This paper analyzes the current political crisis in Central America. The paper begins with an examination of the roots of the crisis, seen as stemming not from the contradictions of a liberal state, but rather from the nature of the social formation. The author argues that modernization in Central America did not lead to politically open states; on the contrary, modernization did not change the fundamental character of political domination, leading to a serious crisis of hegemony by the 1960s. The next part of the paper analyzes the new social actors of the 1970s, focusing on the popular organizations and revolutionary movements. The author concludes with a discussion of the way different political forces are addressing the crisis.


El campo de fuerza donde la crisis política se constituye en Centroamérica, está precedido por reiteradas luchas contra el estilo oligárquico y la cultura política autoritaria que ese estilo supone. Este trabajo propone la interpretación de que el escenario de la crisis es un escenario de luchas democraticas frustradas, de pequeños y grandes conflictos para lograr la participación/representación popular. El ensayo plantea en su parte central el tema de la movilización popular-revolucionaria y las interpelaciones que finalmente constituyen al sujeto de la acción política. En la parte final se discute el sentido de futuro que esta acción adquiere en el seno de una abierta ofensiva thermidoriana; el desenlace está planteado ya no solo como una lucha entre fuerzas sociales internas sino también entre actores externos partidarios de una solución violenta y no del diálogo o la negociación.

Edelberto Torres-Rivas is perhaps Central America's most renowned social scientist. He is a native of Guatemala, a member of the Instituto de Investigación Social (ICADIS) in Costa Rica, director of the Review Polémica, and the author of numerous works on Central America. He was a Fellow of the Kellogg Institute during the Spring 1984 semester.

Industrialization in Mexico: Issues and Strategies

Kwan S. Kim

Working Paper #67 - March 1986


This study evaluates from a historical perspective the consequences of various industrialization strategies adopted by the Mexican governments, identifying with each strategy major issues and constraints on industrial development. In the discussion, special attention is given to the roles of trade and industrial policy in affecting the development of industry. Such issues as protection versus liberalization, export-promotion versus import-substitution, and private sector versus public sector are carefully examined in the context of the Mexican economy. The paper concludes with a critical review of the current administration's industrial policy, and some suggestions for future directions of development for Mexico.


Este estudio evalúa desde una perspectiva histórica las consecuencias de varias estrategias de industrialización adoptada por los gobiernos mexicanos, identificando en cada una de ellas los asuntos más relevantes y las restricciones en el desarrollo industrial. Se da especial importancia a los papeles de la política comercial e industrial con respecto a su efecto en el desarrollo industrial. Problemas como protección versus liberalización, promoción de exportaciones versus la substitución de importaciones y sector privado versus sector público son cuidadosamente examinados en el contexto de la economía mexicana. Este ensayo concluye con una revisión crítica de la política industrial de la actual administración, y apunta algunas sugerencias para las orientaciones futuras de desarrollo para México.

Kwan S. Kim is Associate Professor of Economics and Faculty Fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He has occasionally served as an economic consultant for governments of developing countries and for international agencies. He has published extensively in the areas of trade and development, planning and industrialization, with a special interest in East Africa, East Asia and, recently, Mexico. He is editor of Papers on the Political Economy of Tanzania and Debt and Development in Latin America. His recent work includes Industrial Policy and Development in South Korea.

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1985 ASSA meeting in New York. The research was supported by a seed-money grant from the Kellogg Institute, and later by a grant from NAFINSA/ONUDI, Mexico. The author wishes to thank Dr. Ingolf E. Otto and Professors Denis Goulet, Suleiman S. Wasty and William Glade for helpful comments, without implicating them in the final product. He is also indebted to Caroline Domingo of the Kellogg Institute for carefully reading the manuscript.

The Transition to Democracy in Brazil

Scott Mainwaring

Working Paper #66 - March 1986


This paper analyzes the transition to democracy in Brazil, focusing primarily on the period between 1983 and 1985. The first section argues that political liberalization initially resulted from a decision by leaders of the military regime, rather than from grass roots or opposition pressures; it then explains the logic of that decision. The author briefly examines the dialectic between the regime and the opposition during the 1974-83 period. He goes on to argue that the period beginning October 1983 marked some decisive changes in the political process; the military's support, cohesion, and ability to control the political process declined. The following section argues that this erosion of the military regime between 1983 and 1985 resulted from a combination of legitimation problems, which were long term and virtually inevitable, and choices that it made. The concluding section argues that the elitist nature of the transition has influenced the early period of democratic rule. There are many signs of continuity with the old regime, and only limited challenges to Brazil's lengthy tradition of political elitism and socio-economic inequalities.


Este trabajo analiza la transición a la democracia en Brasil, centrándose principalmente en el período entre 1983 y 1985. En la primera sección se sostiene que la apertura política inicialmente resultó no de las presiones populares o oposicionistas, sino de una decisión de los líderes del régimen militar; luego explica la lógica de esta decisión. El autor resume brevemente la dialéctica entre el régimen y la oposición durante el período de 1974-83. En seguida plantea que el período que comienza en octubre de 1983 registra algunos cambios decisivos en el proceso político; el apoyo para el régimen, la cohesión interna y la abilidad de los militares para controlar el proceso político disminuyeron. Luego se afirma que esta erosión del régimen militar entre 1983 y 1985 resultó de una combinación de problemas de legitimación, los cuales fueron de largo plazo y virtualmente inevitables, y de opciones que no resultaron las mejores. La última parte sostiene que el carácter elitista de la transición ha influenciado el período inicial del régimen democrático. Hay muchas indicaciones de continuidad del viejo régimen, y los desafíos a la larga tradición de elitismo político y desigualdades socio-económicas de Brasil son limitados.

Scott Mainwaring is Assistant Professor of Government and Member of the Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame. He wrote The Catholic Church and Politics in Brazil, 1916-1985 (Stanford University Press) and has also written extensively on social movements and on transitions to democracy. He wishes to thank Caroline Domingo, Frances Hagopian, Margaret Keck, and Eduardo Viola for helpful comments.

Dictaduras y el Artista en el Exilio

Mempo Giardinelli

Working Paper #65 - February 1986


This work discusses the political, intellectual, and moral dilemmas which confront the Latin American artist in exile. The author analyzes the contribution which the artist makes to the democratic and cultural renewal of his/her country-in this case, Argentina. Exile is seen as a paradoxical phenomenon in which there is a constant conflict between beneficial and negative aspects. It is an experience conducive to self-marginalization and self-pity. However, it is also an experience which allows the committed artist to widen her/his horizons, gaining a broader perspective on the immense social, political, economic and cultural problems facing Latin America towards which the artist has a moral responsibility. The artist who returns to Argentina (together with other compatriots) does so with a more tolerant, cautious, and integrating vision. At the same time, the artist encounters a rich literature which is capable of challenging and changing the society. Finally, the author emphasizes the rise of a generation of young writers who are making a fundamental contribution to Latin American literature within the context of a fight for democratic and cultural restoration.


Este trabajo discute los dilemas políticos intelectuales y morales que enfrenta el artista latinoamericano en el exilio y analiza el aporte que el artista presta a la recuperación democrática y cultural de su país-en este caso, la Argentina. Se plantea que el exilio es un fenómeno paradojal en el cual hay un constante conflicto entre aspectos beneficiosos y negativos. Es un campo propicio para la automarginación y la automisericordia. Pero, por otro lado, es una experiencia que permite que el artista comprometido amplie sus horizontes en términos de un mayor entendimiento de los inmensos problemas sociales, políticos, económicos y culturales de América Latina, ante los cuales éste tiene una responsabilidad moral. Se señala que el artísta que vuelve a la Argentina (junto a otros compatriotas) lo hace con una visión más tolerante, cautelosa e integradora. A la vez, éste encuentra una literatura rica, capaz de cuestionar la sociedad y mejorarla. Finalmente, se resalta el surgimiento de una generación de escritores jóvenes que están haciendo un aporte fundamental a la literatura latinoamericana dentro del contexto de lucha por la recuperación demócratica y cultural.

Mempo Giardinelli, Argentine novelist and poet, has been living in exile in Mexico for the past seven years. His Luna Caliente won him the prestigious Premio Nacional de Novela in 1983. Among his best known novels are Toño tuerto rey de ciegos; El cielo con las manos; La revolución en bicicleta and ¿Por qué prohibieron el circo? He is also the author of a book of poems, Invasión, and a collection of short stories, Vidas ejemplares. This paper was given as part of a presentation to the Kellogg Institute during the author's visit in 1985.

Capital Immobility and the Distribution of Income

Joseph Ramos

Working Paper #64 - February 1985


This paper analyzes the distributional effects of alterations in the allocation of resources, using a rigorous microeconomic methodology. The author develops models to examine the distribution of losses in overall income resulting from varying degrees of immobility in the capital market, and explores the relation between these losses and the original distribution of factor ownership.


En este trabajo se analiza los efectos distribucionales de los cambios en la distribución de recursos, utilizando una rigurosa metodología micro-económica. El autor usa modelos matemáticos para examinar la distribución de las pérdidas en el ingreso total que resultan de varios grados de inmovilidad en el mercado de capitales, además explora la relación entre estas pérdidas y la distribución original de la propiedad de los factores.

Joseph Ramos is an economist (Ph.D. Columbia 1968) with 17 years of teaching and consulting experience in Latin America. He is currently with the United Nation's ECLA in Santiago, Chile. His work has generally been in macroeconomics (employment, stabilization and adjustment policies) and he also has a long-standing interest in Catholic social teaching. His latest publication was a book published by ECLA entitled Estabilización y liberalizaçión económica en el Cono Sur (UN, 1984, Santiago). During the Spring semester, 1985, Dr. Ramos was a Faculty Fellow of the Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame.

This is a corrected and modified version of a paper first published in Spanish in Cuadernos de Economía (Universidad Católica de Chile. Dec., 1978).

State Capitalism and Politics in Brazil

Frances Hagopian

Working Paper #63 - February 1986


This paper examines the patterns of political organization and class dominance engendered by state capitalism. Drawing from the developmental experience of the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, this study suggests that state capitalism empowers State elites, politicizes the economy and the implementation of public policy, and establishes state clientelism as the dominant form of political representation. In Minas Gerais, such a system of economic organization privileged territorially-based traditional political elites who presided over the distributional arm of the State. These elites secured their positions in the State by their ability to translate the distribution of State resources to state clients into political support for the authoritarian regime.


Este trabalho examina os padrões de organização política e dominação de classe decorrentes do Capitalismo de Estado. O estudo, baseado na experiência de desenvolvimento do estado brasileiro de Minas Gerais, demonstra que o Capitalismo de Estado confere poder às elites estatais e estabelece o clientelismo como forma dominante de representação política, enquanto a economia e a realização de políticas governamentais são politicizadas. Em Minas Gerais, êste sistema de organização econômica favoreceu as elites políticas tradicionais que presidiram sobre a alocação de recursos do Estado. Estas elites consolidaram suas posições no Estado através de sua capacidade de traduzir a distribuição de recursos públicos para clientes do Estado em apoio político para o regime autoritário.

Frances Hagopian is a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a Faculty Fellow of the Kellogg Institute, and an Assistant Faculty Fellow in the Department of Government and International Studies at the University of Notre Dame. Research for this paper was supported by grants from the Social Science Research Council, the Fulbright-Hays Commission, and the Kellogg Institute Seed Money Fund. The author wishes to thank Alexander Wilde for his comments on an earlier version, and Caroline Domingo for her editorial assistance.

The Debt Crisis and Stabilization Policy in Latin America: New Insights from Recent Research

Benedict J. Clements

Working Paper #62 - February 1986


This report synthesizes the papers and presentations made at the Kellogg Institute conference on "Debt Adjustment in Latin America: Is the Crisis Over?" on April 16, 1985. The paper argues that 1) the debt crisis is far from over as long run solutions to the crisis have not been enacted, and 2) IMF-style stabilization efforts made in response to the crisis have largely failed, suggesting some flaws in the IMF approach.


Este trabajo sintetiza los ensayos y presentaciones de la conferencia del Kellogg Institute sobre "Ajuste de la Deuda en América Latina: ¿Está Terminada la Crisis?" llevada a cabo el 16 de abril de 1985. El trabajo sostiene que 1) la crisis de la deuda está lejos de ser superada ya que no se ha encontrado soluciones de largo plazo; y 2) los esfuerzos de estabilización al estilo FMI han fracasado, lo cual sugiere algunas fallas en el enfoque del FMI.

Benedict J. Clements is currently an Instructor of Economics at Providence College, Providence, Rhode Island. He received his Ph.D. in Economics in 1985 from the University of Notre Dame. Among his research interests are stabilization policy in Latin America and the impact of trade and development strategies on poverty and income distribution. His dissertation fieldwork was done in Brazil.

Labor in Contemporary Latin America: An Agenda for Research
-A Rapporteur's Report-

James McGuire

Working Paper #61 - February 1986


This rapporteur's report summarizes the major themes and issues raised at a workshop on "Labor in Contemporary Latin America: An Agenda for Research," held at the Kellogg Institute between February 28 and March 2, 1985. Most of the discussion focused on the labor movements of Argentina, Brazil, and Chile since 1970, but additional comparative and historical perspectives were provided by the opening presentation and by frequent references to other countries and earlier time periods. The central empirical themes of the conference were (1) the challenges that these labor movements currently face as social actors, and (2) the ways in which they may be able to contribute to the construction or consolidation of political democracy. The major debate was whether the investigation of these themes is best undertaken from the standpoint of the experiences of workers at the shop-floor level, or from the relationship between workers' organizations and other social and political actors.


Este informe resume los temas y asuntos principales del taller sobre "El Movimiento Obrero en América Latina Contemporánea: Una agenda para la investigación," realizado en el Kellogg Institute entre el 28 de febrero y el 2 de marzo de 1985. La discusión se centró en los movimientos obreros de Argentina, Brasil y Chile desde 1970, aunque también se discutió otros períodos y otros países. Los temas empíricos centrales de la conferencia fueron (1) los desafíos que esos movimientos enfrentas como actores sociales, y (2) las maneras en las cuales ellos prodrían contribuir a la construcción y consolidación de la democracia política. El debate principal fue si la investigación de esos temas se realiza mejor desde el punto de vista de las experiencias de los trabajadores en las fábricas, o desde la relación entre los sindicatos y otros actores sociales y políticos.

James McGuire is a graduate student in the Department of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He is writing a doctoral dissertation comparing patterns of interaction between the Peronist trade union movement and six non-Peronist Argentine governments since 1955.

La Visible Eva Peron y el Invisible Rol: Politico Femenino en el Peronismo: 1946-1952

Julia Silva Guivant

Working Paper #60 - January 1986


This article analyzes the ideology about women's political roles that motivated the political mobilization of women from the lower classes in the first Peronist government. The study draws on the ideas, beliefs, images, and metaphors which Eva Perón expressed in her speeches and publications directed toward women. It was Eva Perón who assumed the leadership of the women's movement, following the global directives of Perón. The work links these ideas with the dynamic and evolution of the regime. In the first part the period from 1946-1947 is analyzed, with particular attention devoted to women's suffrage. The purpose is to consider the Peronist initiative in relation to past suffragist battles; the significance it had as a first step in the formation of a feminine political identity. The second part analyzes the period from 1949-1952, with a focus on the organization of the Partido Peronista Femenino. The author discusses both aspects of women's political involvement: as sympathizers-politicizing the private sphere; and as militants-privatizing the public sphere. The paper emphasizes the importance of Eva Perón as the ideal of the projection of feminine values in politics; the implications of women's issues in the regime's attempts to gain stability; and, finally, the limits of the role established by the tension between participation and control.


Este artículo analiza la ideología sobre el rol político femenino que orientó la mobilización de las mujeres de las clases subalternas en el primer gobierno peronista. Para esto toma como materia prima las ideas, creencias, imágenes, y metáforas que Eva Perón expresaba en sus discursos y publicaciones dirigidos a las mujeres. Fue ella quien asumió especialmente su liderazgo, siguiendo las directrices globales de Perón. El trabajo vincula estas ideas con la dinámica y evolución del régimen. En la primera parte, se analiza el período 1946-1947, con eje en el sufragio femenino. El propósito es considerar la iniciativa peronista en relación a las luchas sufragistas pasadas, el significado que tuvo en tanto primer paso en la formación de una identidad política femenina. En la segunda parte, se analiza el período 1949-1952, con eje en la organización del Partido Peronista Femenino. Se considera los dos aspectos del rol político femenino: en tanto simpatizantes, politizando la esfera privada, como militantes, privatizando la esfera pública. Se destaca la importancia de Eva Perón como ideal de la proyección de los valores femeninos a la política, las implicaciones del rol femenino en la lógica de establización del régimen, y finalmente los límites del rol establecidos por la tensión entre participación y control.

Julia Guivant is Assistant Professor of the Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil. An Argentine native, she was a Guest Scholar at the Kellogg Institute during the 1983-1984 academic year. She wishes to thank Eduardo Viola, Anne Pérotin-Dumon and Scott Mainwaring for suggestions and comments.

Environment Under Pressure: The Impact of PVO Projects on a Zairian Village

Mutombo Mpanya

Working Paper #59 - January 1986


During this time of acute food crisis in Africa, there is a growing recognition of ecological conservation as a vital issue. According to one view, traditional African land management techniques are the major cause of environmental deterioration while foreign development efforts, particularly those sponsored by Christian churches, are totally beneficial. This paper presents a detailed study of the case of the Bakwa Mulumba village and the Kalonda Mission Station in the Tshikapa area of central Zaire. The findings are, on the whole, in contradiction with the above view and suggest a rather different general evaluation of the relative environmental effects of traditional local techniques and church sponsored innovations.


Durante este tiempo de aguda crisis de alimentos en Africa, hay un creciente reconocimiento de la conservación ecológica como un asunto vital. De acuerdo a un punto de vista, la administración tradicional de técnicas en las tierras africanas son la mayor causa de la deterioración ambiental mientras que esfuerzos de desarrollo extranjeros, particularmente aquellos patrocinados por las iglesias cristianas, son totalmente beneficiosos. Este trabajo presenta un detallado estudio del caso de la villa Bakwa Mulumba y la Estación Misionera Kalonda en la área de Tshikapa de Zaire central. Las conclusiones, en general, contradicen el punto de vista señalado anteriormente. Se sugiere una evaluación global distinta de los efectos ambientales de las técnicas tradicionales locales y de las innovaciones patrocinadas por la iglesia.

Mutombo Mpanya is a native of Zaire. He received his Ph.D. in Planning from the School of Natural Resources at the University of Michigan. During the last twelve years he has been working with a number of international organizations, conducting research and evaluation studies of businesses, development projects and community-level programs in various African countries. He has taught in several North American universities, including the Universities of Michigan and Notre Dame and Stanford University. Currently Dr. Mpanya is a Fellow of the Kellogg Institute.

On the Fruitful Convergences of Hirschman's Exit, Voice, and Loyalty, and Shifting Involvements. Reflections from the Recent Argentine Experience.

Guillermo O'Donnell

Working Paper #58 - February 1986


Based on concepts formulated by Albert O. Hirschman in Exit, Voice, and Loyalty and in Shifting Involvements, this text proposes the notion of "horizontal voice" as a useful complement to Hirschman's explanations of kinds of action, the formation of collective identities, and cycles of politization and depolitization. "Horizontal voice" is shown as a necessary condition for the exercise of diverse models of voice originally proposed by Hirschman. The arguments presented in this paper are based on research and the daily life experiences of the author during the most repressive years of the last military regime in Argentina.


Basado en conceptos formulados por Albert O. Hirschman, especialmente en Exit, Voice, and Loyalty y en Shifting Involvements, el presente texto propone la idea de "voz horizontal" como un útil complemento de aquéllos, sobre todo en lo que respecta a modalidades de acción y de formación de identidades colectivas, y a ciclos de politización y despolitización. La "voz horizontal" aparece en este sentido como condición necesaria para el ejercicio de diversas modalidades de voz originariamente propuestas por Hirschman. El argumento del presente texto es ilustrado mediante los resultados de una investigación y las propias condiciones de vida cotidiana del autor durante los años mas represivos del último régimen militar en la Argentina.

Guillermo O'Donnell, the Academic Director of the Kellogg Institute, holds the Helen Kellogg Chair in International Studies and is a professor in the Departments of Government and Sociology. Among his recent scholarly works are Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Latin America and Southern Europe, coedited with Philippe Schmitter and Laurence Whitehead (Johns Hopkins University Press, forthcoming); and The Bureaucratic Authoritarian State (University of California Press, forthcoming). Together with José Nun (of CLADE and the University of Toronto), he is currently organizing a multi-year research project on "Dilemmas and Opportunities in the Consolidation of Democracy."

This paper was published in Development, Democracy and the Art of Trespassing: Essays in Honor of Albert O. Hirschman, Alejandro Foxley, Michael McPherson and Guillermo O'Donnell, eds. (University of Notre Dame Press, 1986).

Transicion Hacia la Democracia en Chile e Influencia Externa: Dilemas y Perspectivas

Manuel Antonio Garretón

Working Paper #57 - January 1986


This paper discusses the role of external influence in processes of democratization, concentrating on the case of Chile. The analysis starts off with the internal situation and dynamics, in order to point out possible scenarios of transition and the participating actors. Then the author discusses the limits and dilemmas of external influences on internal processes. The paper indicates the potential areas of external influence, distinguishing between the area of human rights and the processes of transition as such. This work emphasizes the principle that foreign influence is only legitimate if it respects certain parameters and fosters consensual internal processes.


Este trabajo discute el papel de la influencia externa en procesos de democratización, concentrándose en el caso chileno. El esquema de análisis parte de la situación y dinámicas internas con el fin de resaltar los escenarios posibles de transición y los actores en juego, luego se indican los límites y dilemas que enfrenta la influencia externa en procesos internos y se señalan los campos de aplicación de esa influencia, distinguiendo entre el plano de los derechos humanos y los procesos de transición propiamente tal. El trabajo enfatiza el principio que la influencia externa sólo es legítima si respeta ciertos parámetros y favorece dinámicas internas consensuales.

Manuel Antonio Garretón is a sociologist, Professor and Researcher at the Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO), Santiago, Chile. He has been a Visiting Fellow at Oxford University and the Wilson Center, Washington DC, and a Visiting Professor at the University of Chicago. In 1983-84 he was awarded a Guggenheim Fellowship. He was a member of the Latin American Joint Committee of the SSRC and is currently a member of the Council of the Asociación Latinoamericana de Sociología. Among his books are El proceso político chileno (FLACSO, Santiago, 1983); La Unidad Popular y el conflicto político en Chile (Ed. Minga 1983, co-authored with Tomas Moulian), and Dictaduras y democratización (FLACSO, Santiago, 1984). He is a contributor to the volume, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, edited by O'Donnell, Schmitter and Whitehead. From September to November 1985 he was a Fellow at the Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame.

This is a revised version of a paper prepared for the Inter-American Dialogue while the author was staying at the Kellogg Institute.

Chile: In Search of Lost Democracy

Manuel Antonio Garretón

Working Paper #56 - January 1986


The question of the restoration or construction of democracy in Chile is approached in this paper from a triple perspective. The author analyzes the conditions that made Chilean democracy possible in this century; he discusses the qualities of that democracy, focusing particularly on the relationship between the state and civil society. He then examines the causes of the fall of democracy in Chile. The next section of the paper discusses sociopolitical transformations generated under the military regime and outlines a possible scenario for a transition. The conclusion sums up the principle arguments and indicates the perspectives for a future democracy.


La problemática de la recuperación o construcción democrática en Chile se aborda en este trabajo desde una triple perspectiva. Por un lado, se analiza qué condiciones hicieron posible la democracia chilena en este siglo y qué rasgos la tipificaron, haciendo referencia epecialmente al tipo de articulación que se estableció entre Estado y sociedad civil. Por otro lado, se exponen las causas de su derrumbe. Finalmente, se consideran las transformaciones sociopolíticas suscitadas bajo el régimen militar y el posible escenario de una transición. Las tres primeras partes se consagran a cada uno de estos aspectos respectivamente y la última, a modo de conclusión, resume las principales argumentaciones e indica las perspectivas de una democracia futura.

Manuel Antonio Garretón is a sociologist, Professor and Researcher at the Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO), Santiago, Chile. He has been a Visiting Fellow at Oxford University and the Wilson Center, Washington DC, and a Visiting Professor at the University of Chicago. In 1983-84 he was awarded a Guggenheim Fellowship. He was a member of the Latin American Joint Committee of the SSRC and is currently a member of the Council of the Asociación Latinoamericana de Sociología. Among his books are El proceso político chileno (FLACSO, Santiago, 1983); La Unidad Popular y el conflicto político en Chile (Ed. Minga 1983, co-authored with Tomas Moulian), and Dictaduras y democratización (FLACSO, Santiago, 1984). He is a contributor to the volume Transitions from Authoritarian Rule edited by O'Donnell, Schmitter and Whitehead. From September to November 1985 he was a Fellow at the Kellogg Institute.

This paper was published in Jonathan Harlyn & Samuel A. Morley, eds., Latin American Political Economy: Financial Crisis and Political Change (Westview Press, 1986) and is published here with the editors' permission.