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Working Papers - 1989 (#117 - #130)

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Transitions to Democracy and Democratic Consolidation: Theoretical and Comparative Issues

Scott Mainwaring

Working Paper #130 - November 1989


In the 1980s, an extensive literature has emerged on transitions to democracy and democratic processes in Latin America. Latin Americans and Latin Americanists have produced ground breaking works that have enhanced understanding of these subjects. A number of differences of opinion, usually implicit and not articulated, have arisen. Considering the abundance and quality of the literature, a review of some major themes, debates, and disagreements is overdue. In response, this paper analyzes some of the key comparative and theoretical issues in the literature, in several cases challenging influential arguments.


En los años 80', se ha producido una extensa literatura sobre transiciones a la democracia y procesos democráticos en América Latina. Latinoamericanos y latinoamericanistas han producido trabajos pioneros, mejorando el entendimiento de estos temas. Varias diferencias de opinión sobre problemas teóricos, generalmente implícitas y no articuladas, han surgido en esta literatura. Considerando la abundancia y calidad de esta literatura, resulta importante realizar una revisión de los temas, debates y desacuerdos mas relevantes. Este documento analiza algunos aspectos comparativos y teóricos que son claves en la producción literaria reciente, en varios casos examinando criticamente algunos de los argumentos mas influyentes.

Scott Mainwaring is Associate Professor of Government and Senior Fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He is the author of The Catholic Church and Politics in Brazil,1916-1985 (Stanford University Press, 1986), and coeditor of and contributor to The Progressive Church in Latin America (Kellogg Institute/University of Notre Dame Press, 1989). He has published articles on political parties, social movements, and transitions to democracy in Latin America. The author wishes to thank Caroline Domingo, Jonathan Hartlyn, Daniel Levine, Juan Linz, Guillermo O'Donnell, Timothy Power, William C. Smith, and J. Samuel Valenzuela for helpful comments.

Argentine Unions Since 1955: Power and Politicization in a Weak Party System

James W. McGuire

Working Paper #129 - August 1989


This paper argues that a strong causal relationship exists between factional struggles in the Peronist union leadership, the absence of a strong Peronist party, and Argentina's post-1955 problems in consolidating democracy. During Argentina's three most recent civilian governments-those of Illia, Juan and Isabel Perón, and Alfonsín-conflict among Peronist union leaders played a major role in subverting incipient efforts at Peronist party institutionalization. Deprived in part by their own factional struggles of an effective Peronist party organization, the powerful Peronist union leaders have expressed their broad political demands primarily through large-scale strikes and demonstrations. This mode of political expression has created a climate of instability poorly suited for economic development and propitious for military coups. Lacking a strong stake in the party system, moreover, many Peronist union leaders have supported (1966) or resigned themselves to (1976) military intervention.


Este trabajo arguye que existe una fuerte relación causal entre las luchas facciosas de los jefes sindicales peronistas, la ausencia de un partido peronista fuerte, y los problemas que ha tenido la Argentina después de 1955 en consolidar la democracia. Durante los tres gobiernos civiles más recientes en la Argentina-los de Illia, de Juan e Isabel Perón, y de Alfonsín-los conflictos entre los líderes sindicales peronistas subvertieron los esfuerzos incipientes de institucionalizar el partido peronista. Privados en parte por sus propias luchas facciosas de un partido peronista bien organizado, los poderosos líderes de los sindicatos peronistas han expresado sus demandas políticas principalmente a través de huelgas y grandes manifestaciones. Este modo de hacer política ha creado una inestabilidad poco adecuada para el desarrollo económico y propicio para golpes militares. Más aún, ya que su interés en el sistema del partido es mínimo, muchos líderes sindicales peronistas han apoyado (1966) o se han resignado (1976) a la intervención militar.

James W. McGuire is Assistant Professor of Government at Wesleyan University. He was a residential fellow at the Kellogg Institute during the fall semester 1988, and received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of California at Berkeley in May 1989.

On Inertia, Social Conflict, and the Structuralist Analysis of Inflation

Jaime Ros

Working Paper #128 - August 1989


This paper discusses some issues in the interpretation of inflation within recent structuralist models, giving special attention to the different views of the precise role of conflict in inflation that, in turn, can be found among them. The first section of the paper is devoted to a presentation of the common features shared by most recent structuralist views, essentially those that follow from a model of lagged wage indexation, while leaving the precise role of social conflict in inflation unspecified. The author then addresses the role of social conflict and its implications in sections II and III. The discussion there centers mainly on two views of social conflict and inertial elements. We argue that, in their pure versions, these two views can be seen as limiting cases of a whole family of inflation models and that the differences between them-which can have remarkable policy implications-turn out to depend on the presence, and speed, of adaptation processes in the determination of economic agents' targets. A final section sets the previous discussion in a broader context by comparing structuralist views with other inflation theories.


Este trabajo discute algunos aspectos en la interpretación de la inflación según los modelos estructuralistas recientes, dando especial atención a los diferentes enfoques que se encuentran en estos modelos, en torno al papel específico del conflicto en la inflación. La primera sección del trabajo se dedica a la presentación de los aspectos comunes compartidos por la majoría de los enfoques estructuralistas recientes, sobre todo aquellos que siguen el modelo de indexación salarial retardada, sin especificar el papel preciso del conflicto en la inflación. Este aspecto es retomado y sus implicaciones son discutidas en las secciones II y III. Allí la discusión se centra principalmente en dos puntos de vista sobre el papel del conflicto social y los elementos inerciales de la inflación. Se sostiene que en sus versiones puras, estos puntos de vista pueden ser vistos como casos extremos de una familia completa de modelos de inflación y que las diferencias entre ellos-las cuales pueden tener implicaciones políticas importantes-dependen de la presencia y velocidad de los procesos de adaptación en la determinación de las metas de los agentes ecomómicos. Una sección final amplía la discusión anterior al comparar los enfoques estructuralistas con otras teorías de la inflación.

Jaime Ros Bosch is a Mexican economist, senior researcher at ILET (Instituto Latinoamericano de Estudios Transnacionales), and former Director of the Department of Economics, CIDE (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas), Mexico. He is a graduate of the Universidad Autónoma de México and of the University of Cambridge, England. He has done research and published numerous articles on Mexico's economic problems, applied macroeconomics, and industrial economics. He is currently working on inflation and macroeconomic policies in Latin America. In spring 1988 he was a residential fellow at the Kellogg Institute.

This paper is a part of a larger project at the World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER), Helsinki. An earlier version of the paper was written at WIDER, and was subsequently revised and extended during a stay at the Kellogg Institute. The author gratefully acknowledges the support and hospitality from both institutions. He is indebted for comments to Amit Bhaduri, Edward Lorenz, Juan Carlos Moreno, Jim Rakowski and Lance Taylor, as well as to participants in seminars at the Kellogg Institute and ILET, Mexico City. He has also had the benefit of conversations with Edward Amadeo, Tariq Banuri, José Camargo, Alain Lipietz and Stephen Marglin. The remaining errors are entirely his own responsibility.

Popular Groups, Popular Culture, and Popular Religion

Daniel H. Levine

Working Paper #127 - August 1989


Much of the concern about changes in the character and status of popular religious groups in Latin America stems from their potential role in creating a popular subject: a set of confident, articulate and capable men and women from hitherto silent, unorganized, and dispirited populations. In practice, not all groups fit this model. Instead, they range in emphasis from highly pietistic and devotional to socially activist, in structure from authoritarian to democratic, and in status from autonomous to utterly reliant on guidance from external elites and dominant institutions. This paper explores variations in the origins, character, and evolution of CEBs (comunidades eclesiales de base) as a means to understand the conditions under which new forms of participation, associational life, and community solidarity emerge and endure. Comparison of peasant and urban groups in Venezuela and Colombia points up the complex relations among institutional programs, popular needs, and Bible study and changes in popular religiosity-including attitudes to church and clergy, prayer, and pilgrimages, and attitudes to the saints, to Jesus, and to life after death. At issue is not the abandonment of religion for social or political activism, but rather a reunderstanding of religion's content and ordinary practice, and of the ties that bind popular groups to institutions like the churches. Democratization and participation within groups undergirds the changes in popular culture that make for greater personal confidence and sustained capacity for collective action.


Gran parte de la preocupación sobre los cambios en el carácter y la importancia de los grupos religiosos populares en Latinoamérica se deriva de su posible papel en la creación de un actor popular: un grupo de hombres y mujeres seguros de sí, elocuentes y capaces, de entre poblaciones antes desalentadas, desorganizadas y silenciosas. En materia práctica, no todos los grupos encajan en este modelo. Los grupos abarcan en su actitud, desde los altamente pietistas y devotos hasta los socialmente activistas, en su estructura desde los autoritarios hasta los democráticos y en su estatus desde los autónomos hasta los que dependen totalmente para orientarse de élites externas e instituciones dominantes. Este trabajo explora las variaciones en los orígenes, el carácter y la evolución de las comunidades eclesiales de base (CEB) para entender las condiciones bajo las cuales nuevas formas de participación, de acción social, y de solidaridad de comunidad emergen y perduran. Una comparación de grupos urbanos y campesinos en Venezuela y Colombia señala la compleja relación entre los programas institucionales, las necesidades populares, el estudio de la Biblia y los cambios en la religiosidad popular, incluyendo las actitudes hacia los Santos, hacia Jesús y hacia la vida después de la muerte. Lo que se pone a discusión no es el abandono de la religión por el activismo social o político, sino más bien el reentendimiento del contenido y la práctica de la religión y de los lazos que unen a los grupos populares a instituciones como las iglesias. La democratización y la participación dentro de estos grupos fortalece los cambios en la cultura popular que contribuyen a una mayor confianza y seguridad personal y a una capacidad para sostener la acción colectiva.

Daniel H. Levine is Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan. He is author of Conflict and Political Change in Venezuela (Princeton University Press 1973) and Religion and Politics in Latin America: The Catholic Church in Venezuela and Colombia (Princeton University Press, 1981), as well as editor of Churches and Politics in Latin America (SAGE, 1980) and Religion and Political Conflict in Latin America (University of North Carolina Press, 1986). He finished a book entitled Popular Voices in Latin American Catholicism (Princeton University Press: 1992). In spring 1988, he was a Residential Fellow at the Kellogg Institute.

The field research on which this paper is based was supported by grants from the Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studies of the University of Michigan and by the National Endowment for the Humanities Basic Research Grant RO-20172-82. Earlier versions were presented at the Kellogg Institute and at the annual meeting of the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion, November 1988, Chicago. The author wishes to thank Phillip Berryman, Thomas Bruneau, Raymond Grew, Thomas Kselman, Phyllis Levine, Scott Mainwaring, Cecilia Mariz, and Ric Northrup for helpful comments and criticisms.

The Trade Unions in the Uruguayan Transition: Marches and Countermarches of a Process of "Negative Integration"

Juan Rial

Working Paper #126 - July 1989


In 1973 a coup d'état interrupted the institutional continuity of Uruguay. As perceived by many industrialists, the real threat at that juncture was not the urban guerrillas, the tupamaros, but the union movement. For these businessmen the threat posed by the unions was labor indiscipline. For the military it was the Marxist-Leninist ideology that predominated in the union leadership, an ideology that the military were doing their best to suppress. The dictatorship, in fact, caused the union movement to disappear temporarily. It re-emerged during the transition as a result of negotiations between the armed forces and the political opposition. The new union movement, created in 1983, was first a substitute political actor and later a corporate actor. After the restoration of democracy the union leadership elite, mostly communist, gradually adopted a strategy of accommodation, of "negative integration." It maintained a rhetoric of radical change but practiced negotiation to promote the stability of the political regime, thus providing itself with a space in which to act.


En 1973 un golpe de estado interrumpió la continuidad institucional del Uruguay. Para muchos de los empresarios industriales la amenaza real, en el momento, no eran los guerrilleros urbanos, los tupamaros, sino el movimiento sindical. La indisciplina laboral era "su" amenaza. Para los militares lo era la ideología que predominaba en la dirigencia sindical: el marxismo-leninismo, ideología a la que trataron de suprimir. La dictadura, de hecho, provocó la desaparición del movimiento sindical. Su resurgimiento fue el producto de las negociaciones de salida entre las Fuerzas Armadas y la oposición política. El nuevo movimiento sindical creado en 1983 fue, primero, un actor político sustituto y luego un actor corporativo. A partir de la restauración de la democracia la élite dirigente sindical, mayoritariamente comunista, poco a poco, adoptó una estrategia de acomodación, de "integración negativa". Mantuvo una retórica de cambio radical, pero practicó la negociación en busca de la estabilidad del régimen político que le permite un espacio para actuar.

Juan Rial is a political scientist, born in Uruguay in 1943. He is Director of Peitho, Sociedad de Análisis Político, and Professor of Political Science at the University of Montevideo. In 1986-87 he was a Fellow at the Kellogg Institute. His publications include Las Fuerzas Armadas ¿soldados políticos garantes de la democracia (1986) and Los sindicatos y el proceso de redemocratización.

This paper was first presented at the conference "Labor Movements in Transitions to Democracy," sponsored by the Kellogg Institute with support from the National Endowment for the Humanities, Arthur F. O'Neil, and the International Development and Research Centre, and held at the University of Notre Dame, April 26-28, 1988.

"Power" in Literature and Society
The "Double" in Gabriel García Márquez's The Autumn of the Patriarch

José Anadón

Working Paper #125 - August 1989


This study explores some rhetorical and socio-political implications of "power" in The Autumn of the Patriarch by Gabriel García Márquez. These implications are approached through the figure of the "double", which is one of the modalities ascribed to the literature of the fantastic. García Márquez's novel is viewed as an original reflection on the use and abuse of power. Although the author treats these issues comprehensively through the character of the tyrant and his double, he makes surprising allusions to himself, to writing, and to all people. García Márquez's work suggests an alternative view of the concept of power, one not contemplated in the classic theoretical study on this subject by Michel Foucault.


En este estudio se exploran las posibilidades socio-políticas en el Otoño del Patriarca, por Gabriel García Márquez, a través del tema del doble, una modalidad frecuente dentro del género de la literatura fantástica. Se entiende la novela como un examen, desde una perspectiva muy original, sobre los efectos que produce el poder en los individuos. La alusión se amplía sorpresivamente y toca al propio autor, a su fama literaria, y también se aplica de alguna manera a todos los individuos. Estas ideas de García Márquez sobre el concepto del poder no se contemplan en las teorías que sobre el mismo tema ha expuesto Michel Foucault.

José Anadón is Associate Professor in the Department of Romance Languages and Literature at the University of Notre Dame. His research focuses primarily on the Latin American colonial period and also includes some aspects of contemporary literature. The following books are among his publications: Pineda y Bascuñán, defensor del araucano (1977), Prosistas coloniales del siglo XVII (1978), La novela colonial de Barrenechea y Albis (1983), La Suma y Epílogo de Pineda y Bascuñán (1984), Historiografía literaria de América Colonial (1988), and Gabriela Mistral: Historia de una Amistad (1989).

The idea of this paper was suggested to the author by his participation in Notre Dame's CORE program during the 1988-1989 school year. The author extends his thanks to all of those who read this manuscript and offered their valuable comments: to his departmental colleagues, Steven Bell and María Rosa Olivera-Williams, and to Roberto DaMatta, Randolph Klawiter, Al Nieman, James Powell, and Samuel Valenzuela.

Foreign Trade and the Distribution of Income in Thailand

Kwan S. Kim and Pornpen Vorasopontaviporn

Working Paper #124 - July 1989


This paper makes an empirical investigation of the structures of employment and earnings associated with possible alternative trade strategies for Thailand. The authors focus on ascertaining who owns the factors of production that would be rewarded by the changes in trade structure under consideration. Their simulation is based on an extended input-output analysis, using Thailand's recent social accounting matrices and household budget surveys, from which they conclude that the employment and income effects of export promotion are about twice as great as those of import substitution and that an outward-looking strategy, moreover, ensures a better utilization of capital. However, export activities lead to the creation of largely low productivity employment; thus, expanding export activities alone is unlikely to raise the average living standard of the poor.


Este trabajo hace una investigación empírica de las estructuras de empleo e ingresos asociadas con posibles estrategias alternativas de comercio para Tailandia. Los autores enfocan su atención en averiguar quien es dueño de los factores de producción que se recompensarían con los cambios estructurales considerados. La simulación de los autores está basada en un análisis extensivo de insumo-producto, usando recientes encuestas de las matrices de contabilidad sociales y de presupuesto familiar en Tailandia, de las cuales se concluye que el empleo y los bienes de ingreso de la promoción de exportación son el doble de los de substitución de importación y que, más aún, una estrategia con vistas al exterior, asegura una mejor utilización del capital. Sin embargo, las actividades de exportación llevan generalmente a la creación de empleo de baja productividad, de modo que el hecho de expander las actividades de exportación por si solo, no es probable que aumente las condiciones medianas de vida de los pobres.

Kwan S. Kim is Professor of Economics and departmental fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He has served as an economic consultant for governments of developing countries and for international agencies. He has written numerous books and articles on trade and development and planning and industrialization, with special interests in East Asia, East Africa, and Latin America. His publications include Mexico: Development Strategies for the Future (with Denis Goulet) and Política industrial y desarrollo en Corea del Sur, and he is editor of Papers on the Political Economy of Tanzania and Debt and Development in Latin America.

Pornpen Vorasopontaviporn is Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Ramkhamhaeng, Thailand. She wrote her Ph.D. thesis on "Trade Policy for Employment and Income Distribution: The Case of Thailand" (University of Notre Dame, 1984).

An earlier version of this paper was presented at a World Academy of Development and Cooperation seminar, University of Maryland, 1987.

¿Pobreza = Frustracion = Violencia?
Crítica empirica a un mito recurrente

Eugenio Tironi

Working Paper #123 - May 1989


This paper examines the hypothesis that there is a positive association between poverty and the predisposition towards collective violence. The author presents the results of a survey carried out in 1988 among marginal and middle-class sectors in Santiago, Chile, with indices of "orientation towards violence," "frustration," "adaptation/resignation," and "coercion." The survey results tend to contradict the hypothesis. The urban poor of Santiago do not show a greater orientation towards violence than the middle class: on the contrary, they show a marked predisposition towards resignation, with the exception of a small group that shares a particular political socialization. Moreover, the results show that the marginal urban sectors are more affected by state coercion than by socioeconomic frustration, which also contradicts the hypothesis that poverty produces attitudes and demands directed towards purely economic ends. This leads to the conclusion that it is wrong to think of urban marginal sectors as a group with explosive demands, capable of destabilizing the transition to democracy in Chile, since they have a much greater interest in democracy than is often supposed.


El propósito de este paper es someter a prueba la hipótesis según la cual hay una asociación positiva entre la condición de pobreza y la predisposición hacia la violencia colectiva. Para esto se presentan los resultados de un survey efectuado en 1988 en sectores marginales y en sectores medios de Santiago (Chile), con índices de "orientación a la violencía," "frustración," "adaptación/resignación" y "coerción." Esta información contradice la hipótesis mencionada, pues los pobres urbanos de Santiago no muestran una orientación a la violencia superior a la de los grupos medios; en cambio, manifiestan una marcada predisposición a la resignación, a excepción de un pequeño núcleo que comparte una particular socialización politica. Al mismo tiempo la información indica que los marginales urbanos son más sensibles a los efectos de la coerción estatal que a los efectos de la frustración socio-económica, lo que contradice tambien la hipótesis segun la cual la pobreza produciría actitudes y demandas orientadas por fines puramente económicos. Esto lleva a concluir que no hay razones para imaginar a los marginales urbanos como un grupo con demandas explosivas, capaces de desestabilizar la transición a la democracia en Chile, pues estan mucho más interesados en ella de lo que muchas veces se supone.

Eugenio Tironi is Academic Director of SUR Research Center in Santiago, Chile. He conducts campaign polls and was the scriptwriter-editor of the television programs for the "No" campaign. He is currently a residential fellow at the Kellogg Institute, working on a research project on the phenomena of social disintegration. He is the author of Los Silencios de la Revolución. Chile: La otra cara de la modernización, which won a prize as the best essay of the year and was among the Chilean best-sellers of 1988.

This paper is based on the results of a survey carried out by the author and E. Weinstein at the Centro de Estudios Y Educación SUR in Santiago, Chile, with support from the Ford Foundation., The author wishes to thank Roberto DaMatta, Manuel Antonio Garretón, Scott Mainwaring, and J. Samuel Valenzuela for their comments on his presentation of the paper at the Kellogg Institute in February 1989.

Capitalist Development and Democracy in South America

Evelyne Huber Stephens

Working Paper #122 - May 1989


This study analyzes the emergence and decline of democracy in all ten major South American countries over the full course of the period since independence. It uses the comparative historical method and a theoretical framework that integrates structural variables with political institutions, looking at the interaction in their effects rather than assigning primacy to one or the other. It distinguishes between restricted and full democracies, the latter being characterized by fully institutionalized contestation and universal inclusion. The central substantive suggestions are that without structural conditions that allowed the organization of effective mass pressure, full democracy was unlikely to emerge, and without effective institutional protection of elite interests in the context of institutionalized contestation and inclusion of non-elite sectors, democracy did not survive. The variables that shaped the trajectory of democracy are the process of consolidation of state power, the nature of a country's integration into the world market (foreign controlled mineral versus nationally controlled agrarian export sectors), the labor requirements of agriculture, the degree of subsidiary industrialization generated by the export sector, the class alliances to which these economic and social structures give rise, the role of the state in shaping civil society, and the nature of political party systems.


Este trabajo analiza el surgimiento y el declive de la democracia en los diez países principales de Sudamérica desde la época de la Independencia. Se emplea una metodología histórica comparativa y un armazón teórico que integra las variables estructurales y las instituciones políticas, viendo la interacción en sus efectos en vez de asignar primacía a uno u otro. El estudio distingue entre democracias restringidas y democracias en pleno, siendo estas últimas caracterizadas por la contestación totalmente institucionalizada y por la inclusión universal. Las sugerencias centrales de sustancia son que sin las condiciones estructurales que permiten la organización de una presión de masas efectiva, era difícil que surgiera la democracia plena, y que sin la protección institucional efectiva de los intereses de las élites en el contexto de la contestación institucionalizada y la inclusión de sectores no elitistas, la democracia no sobrevivía. Las variables que dieron forma a la trayectoria de la democracia son el proceso de consolidación del poder estatal, la naturaleza de la integración de un país dentro del mercado mundial (exportaciones de minerales por extranjeros versus exportaciones agrícolas nacionales), los requerimientos de mano de obra en la agricultura, el grado de industrialización subsidiaria generada por el sector de exportación, las alianzas de clase producidas por estas estructuras económicas y sociales, el papel del estado en la formación de la sociedad civil, y el carácter de los sistemas de partidos políticos.

Evelyne Huber Stephens, former residential fellow of the Kellogg Institute (fall 1987), is Associate Professor of Political Science at Northwestern University. She is the author of The Politics of Workers' Participation: The Peruvian Approach in Comparative Perspective (Academic Press, 1980) and coauthor of Democratic Socialism in Jamaica: The Political Movement and Social Transformation in Dependent Capitalism. She has published numerous articles on the politics of socioeconomic reform in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The author would like to thank the Kellogg Institute, where much of the work on this paper was done, as well as Peter Evans, Manuel Antonio Garretón, Jane Mansbridge, Guillermo O'Donnell, Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Frank Safford, John D. Stephens, and J. Samuel Valenzuela for comments on earlier drafts.

A revised version was published in Politics and Society, Vol. 17, No. 9, 1989.

Situaciones: Micro-Escenas de la Privitizacion de lo Publico en Sao Paulo

Guillermo O'Donnell
con comentarios de
Roberto DaMatta y de J. Samuel Valenzuela

Working Paper #121 - May 1989


In his micro-scenes, Guillermo O'Donnell recounts several incidents drawn from daily life to show that there is a generalized tendency to appropriate public spaces for private use in Brazil. This obviously leads to a collective loss. In the final analysis, O'Donnell argues that Brazil faces a "gigantic prisoner's dilemma." In his commentary, Roberto DaMatta indicates that the phe-nomenon is reversed according to positions in the social hierarchy. Thus, the private appropriation of public spaces is greater the higher an individual or group's social position, while those situated on the bottom rungs of the hierarchy suffer the appropriation of their private spaces by state officials. Samuel Valenzuela adds that the micro-scenes show the lack of a clear separation between public and private that results from the weakness of individual and collective rights in the Latin American social fabric. O'Donnell thinks that there may be some relationship-although he is not sure how to establish it-between the problems revealed by his micro-scenes and the difficulties of creating and sustaining a democratic regime. DaMatta and Valenzuela agree.


En sus micro-escenas, Guillermo O'Donnell relata incidentes de la vida diaria en Brasil que muestran que existe en ese país una generalizada tendencia a apropiar lo público para usos privados, con lo cual la colectividad obviamente pierde. En el fondo, Brasil enfrenta "un gigantesco dilema del prisionero". En su comentario, Roberto DaMatta acota que el fenómeno se invierte según sea el lugar que se ocupe en la jerarquía social: la apropiación de lo público para fines privados es mayor mientras más alto se esté, en tanto que quienes ocupan los escalafones más bajos sufren la apropiación de su espacio privado por agentes del Estado. Y en el suyo, Samuel Valenzuela señala que las micro-escenas muestran que la falta de una separación clara entre lo público y lo privado deriva de la escasa implantación de la noción de derechos individuales y colectivos en el tejido social latinoamericano. O'Donnell piensa que alguna relación hay-aunque no está seguro de cómo establecerla-entre los problemas revelados por sus micro-escenas y las dificultades en crear y sostener un régimen democrático. DaMatta y Valenzuela concuerdan.

Guillermo O'Donnell, Helen Kellogg Professor of Sociology and Government and International Studies, is Academic Director of the Institute. Roberto DaMatta is an Institute Senior Fellow and holds the Edmund P. Joyce Chair in Notre Dame's Department of Anthropology. Samuel Valenzuela is also an Institute Senior Fellow and a Professor in the Department of Sociology.

Popular Movements in the Context of the Consolidation of Democracy

Ruth Corrêa Leite Cardoso

Working Paper #120 - March 1989


This paper addresses the role of popular movements in the consolidation of democracy in Brazil in the context of traditional clientelism. The author stresses the need to change the political culture and create space for the assertion of full citizenship rights. She examines the process of negotiation among the movements, political parties, and the state apparatus, and the conflicts that arise, with the aim of reaching an understanding of how new sociopolitical identities are forged. In order to survive, community groups must both act pragmatically, making use of their most effective contacts, and at the same time adopt an ideological stance that affirms their autonomy. Moreover, while the groups all emerged from a common experience of exclusion, there is considerable diversity in both their negotiating strategies and their specific objectives. Despite these tensions, the author concludes that when space for participation opens, changes in the balance of power do occur and a degree of popular autonomy becomes possible. Without corresponding institutional changes, however, the changes occur haphazardly and the autonomy gained remains vulnerable and precarious.


Este trabalho discute o papel dos movimentos populares na consolidação da democracia no Brasil, no contexto do clientelismo tradicional. A autora realça a necessidade tanto de mudança da cultura política quanto de criação do espaço para a afirmação de plena cidadania. Ela examina, também, o processo de negociação entre os diversos movimentos populares, os partidos políticos, o aparato estatal, bem como os conflitos que emergem em tal negociação, com o objetivo de alcançar uma compreensão da maneira pela qual as novas identidades sócio-políticas são forjadas. A fim de sobreviverem, grupos comunitários precisam tanto agir pragmaticamente quanto adotar uma postura ideológica capaz de afirmar sua autonomia. Conquanto todos os grupos tenham emergido de uma experiência comum de exclusão, eles apresentam considerável diversidade, tanto nas estratégias de negociação quanto em seus objetivos específicos. A despeito dessas tensões, a autora conclui que quando se abre o espaço para a participação, mudanças ocorrem que alteram o equilíbrio do poder, e torna possível certo grau de autonomia popular. Face à ausência de correspondentes mudanças institucionais, contudo, as mudanças efetuadas pelos movimentos populares somente ocorrem casualmente e a autonomia alcançada permanece vulnerável e precária.

Ruth Cardoso is a senior researcher in anthropology at CEBRAP and Emeritus Associate Professor of Social Sciences at the University of São Paulo. Her research has focused on urban popular movements and democracy in Brazil. Her most recent article, "Os movimentos populares no contexto da consolidação da democracia," was published in A democracia no Brasil: Dilemas e Perspectivas, Guillermo O'Donnell and Fábio Wanderley Reis, editors.

Stronismo, Post Stronismo, and the Prospects for Democratization in Paraguay

Diego Abente

Working Paper #119 - March 1989


This paper examines the possibilities for the emergence of a situation that would favor a transition to democracy in Paraguay. The author analyzes the historical development of relevant factors, both structural-demographic changes, transformations in the social structure, and international realignments-and contingent-redefinition of space for the opposition, the decay of stronismo and the difficulty of reproducing it-and evaluates the implications of these changes. The overall conclusion is that the changes in the socioeconomic and geopolitical matrix tend to favor a democratic outcome, but it is unlikely that these alone could bring about a political transformation. Nevertheless, when contingent factors are also taken into account, particularly the nature of the last phase of stronismo and the beginning of post-stronismo, there are indications that Paraguay is entering a crucial stage that opens up a range of possibilities for liberalization and democratization.


Este estudio examina las posibilidades de surgimiento de una situación susceptible de generar una transición a un sistema competitivo y participativo en el Paraguay. A fin de determinar las posibilidades de surgimiento de tal coyuntura democratizante, el trabajo analiza la evolución de una gama de factores estructurales (cambios demográficos, transformaciones en la estructura social, y realineamientos internacionales) y contingentes (la redefinición del espacio opositor, la descomposición del stronismo, y la dificultad de reproducirlo) y evalua sus implicaciones. La conclusión general es que a pesar de que las transformaciones en la matriz socioeconómica y geopolítica favorecen una salida democrática, es improbable que ellas de por si desencaden un cambio político. No obstante, dichas transformaciones en conjunción con factores contingentes especialmente relacionados con la última fase del stronismo y el inicio del post-stronismo, señalan que el Paraguay comienza a vivir una etapa crucial que abre un abanico de posibilidades para la liberalización y la democratización del país.

Diego Abente is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio. He has written extensively on the politics of Latin America in journals such as the Latin American Research Review and the Journal of Interamerican Studies.

The author would like to thank Roberto DaMatta, Michael Francis, Louis Goodman, Michael Grow, Daniel Levine, Guillermo O'Donnell, Karen Remmer, and Samuel Valenzuela for their helpful comments and suggestions and Caroline Domingo for her excellent editing.

Labor and the Return of Democracy to Spain

Robert Fishman

Working Paper #118 - March 1989


During the late years of the Franco regime, the Spanish labor movement demonstrated an impressive ability to maintain a high level of industrial conflict despite considerable repression. The labor movement hoped for a transition through a ruptura imposed by popular mobilization: instead, the transition period led to the Moncloa pacts; a decline in union membership and a series of failed strikes; an eclipse of union in favor of political party leadership; and a change in union policy from mobilization to restraint. One explanation advanced for this turn of events is that the labor movement was demobilized from above. This paper concedes that the close ties between unions and political parties contributed to greater union restraint, but argues that parties did not play much of a role in limiting labor demands. On the basis of a survey of plant-level labor leaders conducted in 1981, the author rejects the "demobilization-from-above" thesis. He claims that the most significant pressures for restraint came from below given the plant-level leaders' concern for the consolidation of democracy and their acceptance of the legitimacy of the new state, and the unwillingness of most workers to undertake aggressive mobilizations in the context of a growing economic crisis, plant closings and a rapid increase in unemployment. Labor's general organizational weakness is also not a product of a deliberate policy of demobilization. Rather, it is a legacy of the Franco regime-labor entered the democratic transition with a recent history of mobilization but little experience in building stable, strong, and autonomous organizations.

In 1987 there has been a resurgence of labor conflict and worker militancy, which also runs counter to the demobilization-from-above thesis. The author contends that plant-level leaders have retained throughout their capacity for judgments autonomous from both the national confederations and the political parties. Democracy is now perceived to be safely consolidated. The economy has stabilized with a resumption of significant growth. Thus, there is a readiness among rank and file workers and plant-level leaders to reject restraint. The Spanish labor movement remains organizationally weak and the level of formal union membership is still comparatively low, but this does not preclude large-scale worker mobilization.


Durante los últimos años del régimen de Franco, el movimiento laboral español demostró una capacidad notable para sostener un alto nivel de conflicto industrial a pesar de una considerable represión. El movimiento laboral hubiera deseado una transición mediante ruptura impuesta por movilización popular: pero el período de transición condujo a los pactos de Moncloa; al descenso en la afiliación sindical y a una serie de huelgas infructuosas; al eclipse de dirigentes sindicales por los políticos; y a un cambio en la política sindical, de la movilización a la limitación de las reivindicaciones. Se dice que el movimiento laboral fue desmovilizado desde arriba. Sin embargo, aunque los lazos estrechos entre sindicatos y partidos políticos contribuyeron a limitar las demandas sindicales, los partidos no jugaron un papel directo en dicha restricción. Basando su análisis en una encuesta de líderes laborales a nivel de fábrica realizada en 1981, el autor rechaza la tesis de la "desmovilización-desde-arriba". Afirma que las presiones más significativas para la restricción vinieron de abajo, del interés de los líderes a nivel de fábrica por la consolidación de la democracia y su aceptación de la legitimidad del nuevo orden político, y de la renuencia de la mayoría de los trabajadores en movilizarse en torno a nuevas demandas en el contexto de una crisis económica con cierre de fábricas y un rápido aumento del desempleo. La debilidad organizacional de la clase obrera tampoco se debe a una desmovilización impuesta desde arriba, sino al legado del régimen de Franco. A pesar de sus altos niveles de movilización en los años anteriores a la transición, los obreros españoles no tuvieron la posibilidad de construir organizaciones estables, fuertes y autónomas.

En 1987 han resurgido los conflictos laborales y la militancia de los trabajadores, lo cual también contradice la tesis de la desmovilización-desde-arriba. Los líderes a nivel de fábrica han retenido su autonomía de las confederaciones nacionales y de los partidos políticos. La democracia se percibe ahora como algo consolidado. La economía se ha estabilizado con la reanudación de un crecimiento significativo. Por lo tanto, los trabajadores no quieren seguir limitando sus demandas en este nuevo contexto. El movimiento laboral continúa siendo débil organizacionalmente y el nivel de la afiliación sindical formal sigue siendo comparativamente bajo, pero esto no imposibilita niveles altos de movilización.

Robert Fishman received his Ph.D. in Sociology from Yale University, and is currently Associate Professor of Government and Social Studies at Harvard. His book on the relationship between labor and the democratic transition in Spain, Working Class Organization and Political Change: The Labor Movement and the Transition to Democracy in Spain, is forthcoming from Cornell University Press. He developed a research project on the growing distance between intellectuals and working class communities in contemporary Europe. His research also includes an examination of the aftermath of failed revolutions, focusing on Italy, Spain, and Germany during the inter-war years.

This paper was first presented at the conference "Labor Movements in Transitions to Democracy," sponsored by the Kellogg Institute with support from the National Endowment for the Humanities, Arthur F. O'Neil, and the International Development and Research Centre, and held at the University of Notre Dame in April 1988.

Of Victims and Executioners: Argentine State Terror, 1976-1983

David Pion-Berlin and George A. Lopez

Working Paper #117 - April 1989


Scholars have found that governments will often terrorize subdued, even compliant populations. Outside of the literature on genocide, little theorizing or empirical testing has been done as to the motivations behind unprovoked governmental violence. This study argues that governments may attack groups whose characteristics seem incongruent with their own ideological agendas. We delineate two major ideologies that guided the Argentine military to perpetrate state terror and gross violations of human rights as standard policy. In national security ideology, the junta found its rationale for the use of unbridled terror against a broad spectrum of the Argentine population. Guided by the hand of a free market ideology, the regime focused its terror on members of collectivities perceived to be irritably obstructive to the achievement of governmental objectives. Together these ideologies provided a motivation for the use of excessive levels of state violence by the regime and the identification of the victims of such violence. A regression analysis of previously undisclosed data on the social characteristics of the Argentine "desaparecidos," coupled with an examination of sectoral legislation, finds that individuals who were affiliated with large collectivities and certain politically powerful and strategically placed unions suffered a greater probability of victimization.


Estudiosos del campo han encontrado que los gobiernos terrorizarán con frecuencia a las poblaciones sometidas si no sumisas. Aparte de la literatura sobre el genocidio, poca teorización o comprobaciones empíricas se han realizado acerca de los motivos de la violencia gubernamental no provocada. Este estudio arguye que los gobiernos pueden atacar a grupos cuyas características parecen incongruentes con sus propias agendas ideológicas. Nosotros delineamos dos ideologías principales que han guiado al ejército argentino para perpetrar como política normal el terror de estado así como graves violaciones a los derechos humanos. La junta encontró su razonamiento para el uso de terror desenfrenado contra un espectro amplio de la población argentina en la ideología de la seguridad nacional. Guiado por una ideología de mercado libre, el régimen enfocó su terror sobre miembros de colectividades percibidas como irritablemente obstructivas para la realización de los objetivos del gobierno. Juntas, estas ideologías proveyeron la motivación para el uso de niveles excesivos de violencia estatal por el régimen y para la identificación de las víctimas de tal violencia. Un análisis regresivo de información previamente no descubierto sobre las características sociales de los "desaparecidos" de Argentina, emparejado con un exámen de la legislación sectoral, encuentra que los individuos que estaban afiliados con grandes colectividades y en ciertos sindicatos políticamente poderosos y estratégicamente ubicados, sufrieron una mayor probabilidad de victimación.

David Pion-Berlin is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University. His research focuses on governmental violence and repression, and the study of military elites in Latin America, with particular emphasis on military political thought and civil-military relations. His publications include The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru (Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1989). He has made numerous contributions to edited volumes on Latin American politics and has written articles for Comparative Political Studies, Armed Forces and Society, and the Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs.

George A. Lopez is Associate Professor of Government and International Studies and Faculty Fellow at the Institute for International Peace Studies of the University of Notre Dame. His research on gross violations of human rights and government repression has appeared in a number of publications including Chitty's Law Journal and Human Rights Quarterly. In addition he has been coeditor and contributor in such volumes as Government Violence and Repression: An Agenda for Research (Greenwood, 1986) and Testing Theories of Government Violence and Repression (Westview, 1989).

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