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Working Papers - 1991 (#151 - #168)

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Strategic Choice Models of Political Change in Latin America

David Collier and Deborah L. Norden

Working Paper #168 - December 1991

Abstract

This article assesses the use of strategic choice models in the study of Latin American politics. These models explore how given actors pursue goals by shaping the context in which other actors make choices. The discussion centers on Hirsch-man's analysis of "reform-mongering," Przeworski's "threshold" model of transitions to democracy, and O'Donnell's model of democratic consoli-dation.

Basic components of the models are examined, including the defi-ni-tion of actors, preference distributions, coalitional thresholds, perceptions of the likelihood of given outcomes, and efforts to change actual and perceived costs of these outcomes. The relationship between such models and more familiar perspec-tives in the Latin American field is then explored. The models have a distinctive emphasis on uncertainty and the creative use of uncertainty by political leaders; yet they also have much in common with other research tradi-tions. The article advocates eclecticism in employing these alternative analytic approaches.

Resumen

Este trabajo evalúa la utilización de modelos de elección estratégica para el estudio de la política latinoamericana. Estos modelos analizan como determinados actores persiguen ciertas metas modificando el contexto en el que otros actores toman decisiones. La discusión gira en torno al análisis del "afán reformista" de Hirschman, al modelo de "las condiciones mínimas necesarias" para la transición hacia la democracia de Przeworski, y al modelo de la consolidación democrática de O'Donnell.

En el trabajo se analizan los componentes básicos de estos modelos, incluyendo la definición de los actores, la distribución de preferencias, las condiciones mínimas necesarias para las coaliciones, las percepciones sobre la probabilidad de determinados sucesos, así como los esfuerzos para modificar tanto los costos reales como los percibidos de dichos sucesos. Es así como se examina la relación entre dichos modelos y otros enfoques más comunes en el ámbito latinoamericano. Un rasgo distintivo de los modelos es el énfasis que ponen en la incertidumbre y en el uso creativo de ésta por parte de los líderes políticos; sin embargo, tienen también mucho en común con otras tradiciones de investigación. Este trabajo aboga por el eclecticismo en el uso de enfoques analíticos alternativos.


David Collier is Professor and Department Chair in Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He has recently published Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, The Labor Movement, and Regime Dynamics in Latin America; and The Comparative Method: Two Decades of Change.

Deborah L. Norden completed her Ph.D. in Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. She writes on military politics and democratization in Latin America, with a focus on Argentina.


Labor Movements and Political Systems: A Conceptual and Typological Analysis*

J. Samuel Valenzuela

Working Paper #167 - December 1991

Abstract

This paper examines variations in the imbrication of labor movements are inserted into national political systems in capitalist countries of the Americas and Europe. The author shows how the differences in these modes of insertion depend on four dimensions: first, the historical process through which the labor unions reached their organizational consolidation; second, the unity or fractionalization of the labor movement; third, the nature of the links between unions and parties; and fourth, the kind of political regime in which labor must act. On the basis of this conceptual groundwork, the paper discusses five types of insertion of labor movements into national political processes-three under democratic regimes and two under authoritarian regimes. More such types can be developed by drawing finer distinctions.

Resumen

Este ensayo examina las variaciones que presentan los modos de inserción de los movimentos obreros en los sistemas políticos de los países capitalistas de América y Europa. Estas dependen de cuatro dimensiones: primero, el proceso histórico a través del cual los movimientos sindicales alcanzaron su consolidación organizacional; segundo, la unidad o el fraccionamiento del movimiento obrero; tercero, la naturaleza de los vínculos entre sindicatos y partidos; y cuarto, las peculiaridades del régimen político en el cual deben actuar los movimientos obreros. Dadas las diferencias en estas cuatro dimensiones, el autor discute cinco tipos de inserción de los movimientos obreros en los sistemas políticos de estos países, tres de los cuales son bajo regímenes democráticos y dos bajo regímenes autoritarios. Se podrían desarrollar más tipos si se hacen distinciones mas finas.


J. Samuel Valenzuela is a Senior Fellow of the Kellogg Institute and Professor and Chair of Sociology at the University of Notre Dame. He is the author of Democratización vía reforma: La expansión del sufragio en Chile; coeditor of Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective of Military Rule in Chile: Dictatorships and Oppositions, and of Chile: Politics and Society; and editor of Labor Movements in Transitions to Democracy (University of Notre Dame Press, 1988). His articles on comparative labor, development theory, and political change have appeared in English, Spanish, Italian, and French publications.

* This is a much revised and translated version of a paper first written for a session chaired by Elizabeth Jelin at the World Congress of Sociology in Mexico City in 1982. It subsequently appeared unchanged in Desarrollo Económico, vol. 23, no. 91 (October-December 1983). I thank Robert Fishman, Jorge Domínguez, and Francisco Zapata for their comments on the early drafts of this paper. My gratitude as well to Alessandro Pizzorno, Marino Regini, and Peter Lange, who contributed to my understanding of labor movements. Raimundo Valenzuela assisted with the translation of the original text; his help is also greatly appreciated.

This paper appeared in Marino Regini, ed., The Future of Labor Movements (Sage Publications: 1994).


The Korean Miracle (1962-1980) Revisited: Myths and Realities in Strategy and Development

Kwan S. Kim

Working Paper #166 - November 1991

Abstract

Among all the newly industrializing countries, South Korea's development strategies, as implemented during the period of export-driven industrialization (1962-80), stand out as a model case in which rapid industrialization has been achieved by means of articulate trade and industrial policies. This paper, taking the historical perspective, critically examines the country's industrial policies and their consequences in development. The analysis focuses on the framework of strategies, the methods and policy instruments, and the implementation aspects of policies formulated. The discussions relate to sector-targeted policy measures as well as macroeconomic policies in the fields of foreign trade, foreign investment, financing and credit, public and private sectors, and technological development. The paper concludes with an overall evaluation of the efficacy and limitations of Korea's industrialization strategies; in particular it addresses the issue of replicability to other countries by placing their lessons in a proper historical, sociocultural perspective.

Resumen

Las estrategias de desarrollo de Corea del Sur, llevadas a cabo durante el período de industrialización orientada hacia la exportación (1962-80), sobresalen, entre los países de industrialización reciente, como un caso modelo en el cual se alcanzó una rápida industrialización mediante una combinación consistente de políticas industriales y de comercio exterior. Este trabajo adopta una perspectiva histórica para analizar críticamente las políticas industriales de dicho país y las consecuencias que tuvieron en su proceso de desarrollo. El trabajo está enfocado a examinar el marco de las estrategias, los métodos y los instrumentos de política, y aspectos relacionados con la implementación de las políticas formuladas. La discusión gira en torno a las medidas de política sectoriales y de política macroeconómica en los ámbitos del comercio exterior, la inversión extranjera, el crédito y el financiamiento, los sectores público y privado, y el desarrollo tecnológico. El trabajo concluye con una evaluación general sobre la eficacia y las limitaciones de las estrategias de industrialización de Corea; y dirige su atención en particular al tema de su aplicabilidad en otros países, situando sus enseñanzas en una perspectiva histórica y sociocultural adecuada.


Kwan S. Kim is Professor of Economics and Departmental Fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He is a development economist, occasionally serving as an economic consultant for governments of developing countries and for international agencies. His career includes four years as a Rockefeller Foundation scholar in East Africa, two years as a senior economist with the Agency for International Development, and short stints as an economic advisor or consultant at such institutions as the Hudson Institute, UNIDO, and the National Financiera in Mexico. He has published extensively in over fifty professional journals and edited volumes in the areas of development studies, international trade, econometrics, development planning, and industrialization, with a special interest in East Africa, East Asia, and Mexico, and edited Papers on the Political Economy of Tanzania and Debt and Development in Latin America. He is author of Industrial Policy and Development in South Korea, and coauthor of Development Strategies for the Future of Mexico and Korean Agricultural Research: The Integration of Research and Extension.


Working-Class Protest in Socialist Spain

Lynne Wozniak

Working Paper #165 - October 1991

Abstract

In this paper, I examine the Spanish labor movement's response to the Socialist Government's 1983 industrial modernization program for the steel and shipbuilding sectors. Spanish workers in these two sectors were able to exact from the government the most generous recompensation package of all European workers affected by industrial modernization. I argue that it was not the unions but the factory councils that led a successful revolt against the government's plans. My analysis is a synthesis of two strands of social movement research: the political process model and resource mobilization theory. I find that changes in the "political opportunity structure" wrought by the Socialist Party's ascent to power rendered the trade unions ineffective, while resources available to workers inside the plant empowered the factory councils.

Resumen

En este trabajo analizo la respuesta del movimiento laboral español al programa de modernización industrial propuesto por el gobierno socialista en 1983 para los sectores siderúrgico y de construcción naval. Los trabajadores españoles de estos dos sectores fueron capaces de obtener del gobierno el paquete más amplio de medidas compensatorias que hayan obtenido trabajadores europeos afectados por la modernización industrial. Argumento que no fueron los sindicatos sino los comites de empresa los que dirigieron la revuelta exitosa contra los planes del gobierno. Mi análisis constituye una síntesis de dos corrientes de investigación de los movimientos sociales: el modelo del proceso político y la teoría de la movilización de recursos. Encuentro que los cambios en la "estructura de oportunidad política" forjados por el ascenso al poder del partido socialista volvieron inefectivos a los sindicatos, mientras que los recursos de que disponían los trabajadores en las plantas fortalecieron el poder de los comites de empresa.


Lynne Wozniak, Assistant Professor in Notre Dame's Department of Government and International Studies and Departmental Fellow of the Kellogg Institute, obtained her Ph.D. from Cornell University. Her current research focuses on the impact of social movements, especially labor movements, on democratic consolidation, and the problems of economic restructuring in newly democratized regimes. She has been Visiting Fellow at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, and at the Fundación de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociológicas (FIES) in Madrid, Spain.

Field research for this paper was funded by the Social Science Research Council, the National Science Foundation, and Fulbright-Hays.


From National Corporatism to Transitional Pluralism: European Interest Politics and the Single Market

Wolfgang Streeck

Working Paper #164 - August 1991

Abstract

The paper explores the emerging role of organized interests, especially of labor unions, in the polity of the post-1992 European Community. It begins by reviewing the causes of the Community's failure in the 1960s and 1970s to develop a neocorporatist system of interest representation. It then analyzes the decline of national-level neocorporatism in the years after the second "oil shock," and relates the "Internal Market" project to that development. In particular, the paper argues that the relaunching of European integration in the mid-1980s is inextricably linked to a domestic European "deregulation" project, which in turn responds to the diminished "effective sovereignty" of nation-states over their highly interdependent national economies. It also points out that the newly forming state-like structures at the European level lack the capacity to effectively promote neocorporatist, tripartite concertation. Examining the regional, national, and supranational level of policy-making in the Internal Market, the paper concludes that European interest politics is likely to be more pluralist than corporatist, and will share important characteristics with the political system of the United States.

Resumen

Este artículo examina el papel emergente de los grupos de interés, especialmente de los sindicatos, en la política de la Comunidad Europea posterior a 1992. Empieza haciendo una revisión de las causas del fracaso de la Comunidad, en los años sesenta y setenta, para desarrollar un sistema neocorporativista de representación de intereses. Posteriormente analiza la decadencia del neocorporativismo a nivel nacional durante el período que siguió al segundo "choque petrolero", y relaciona el proyecto del "Mercado Interno" a dicho desarrollo. En particular, el artículo sostiene que el renovado interés por la integración europea a mediados de la década de los ochentas se encuentra inextricablemente vinculado a un proyecto europeo de "desregulación interna, el cual obedece, a su vez, a la decreciente "soberanía efectiva" de los estados-nación sobre sus economías nacionales altamente interdependientes. También señala que las estructuras de tipo estatal recientemente formadas a nivel europeo, carecen de la capacidad para promover efectivamente la concertación tripartita, neocorporativista. Al examinar la política a nivel regional, nacional y supranacional, el artículo concluye que la política de los grupos de interés en Europa tiende a ser más pluralista que corporativista, y compartirá características importantes con el sistema político de los Estados Unidos.


Wolfgang Streeck is Professor of Sociology and Industrial Relations at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He has held positions as Senior Research Fellow at the Wissenschaftszentrum, Berlin (1988); Visiting Professor at the European University Institute, Florence (1983-84); Leverhulme Visiting Professor in European Industrial Relations at the University of Warwick (1985); Visiting Professor at the Center for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences, Madrid (1988); and Fellow of the Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences, Palo Alto, California. He has published extensively on trade unions, business associations, industrial relations, and politics in West Germany and advanced industrial societies.


The Institution of a Stockmarket in a Socialist Economy: Notes on the Chinese Economic Reform Program

Ajit Singh

Working Paper #163 - August 1991

Abstract

This paper is concerned with three questions: (a) how would a stockmarket help economic and industrial development in a country like China; (b) will a stockmarket be system-compatible; and (c) if a full-fledged stockmarket is indeed introduced in a socialist economy, can its "negative influences" (speculation, booms and crashes) be minimized? These issues are examined analytically with the help of empirical evidence of stockmarket behavior in advanced and newly industrializing economies. Although the paper considers the specific case of China, the argument is more general and has application to other developing as well as centrally planned economies.

Resumen

Este artículo plantea tres preguntas: (a) cómo podría contribuir un mercado de valores al desarrollo económico e industrial de un país como China; (b) sería compatible con el sistema un mercado de valores; y (c) si se introduce un mercado de valores completamente desarrollado en una economía socialista, ¿pueden reducirse sus "influencias negativas" (especulación, auges y crisis)? Se examina estas cuestiones de manera analítica con base en la evidencia empírica sobre el comportamiento del mercado de valores en las economías avanzadas y las de industrialización reciente. Aunque este artículo analiza el caso específico de China, el argumento es de carácter más general y podría aplicarse a otras clases de economías en desarrollo tanto si como a aquellas con planificación centralizada.


Ajit Singh, an Indian economist who graduated from Punjab University and obtained his Ph.D. at the University of California, Berkeley, is currently Fellow and Director of Studies in Economics at Queens' College, University of Cambridge. He is a Visiting Departmental Fellow of the Kellogg Institute and holds the Dr. William M. Scholl Visiting Chair in the Department of Economics at Notre Dame. He has been a senior economic advisor to the governments of Mexico and Tanzania and a consultant to the ILO, FAO, UNCTAD, and UNIDO. He is the author of Takeovers: Their Relevance to the Stockmarket and the Theory of the Firm and coauthor of Growth, Profitability and Valuation, both published by Cambridge University Press. His research has been concerned with North-South interactions and problems of the long-term growth of the world economy.


America Astray

Francisco C. Weffort

Working Paper #162 - July 1991

Abstract

This paper discusses the relations between the socioeconomic crisis and the democratization process in Latin America during the '80s. The author proposes that this crisis manifests itself in situations of anomie and social fragmentation, in certain cases close to a social apartheid scenario, that evoke doubts about the national feasibility of those countries. Thus the paper argues that the consolidation of political democracy depends on the resumption of economic development and regional integration, which could prepare these countries for a new insertion into the international economic system.

Resumen

Este ensaio trata das relações entre a crise socio-económica e o processo de democratização na America Latina, nos anos 80. Considera que a crise se manifesta através de situações de anomia e de fragmentação social que, em alguns casos, se aproximam de um cenário de apartheid social que coloca em questão a própria viabilidade nacional. Este trabalho considera que, assim, a consolidação da democracia depende da capacidade desses paises retomarem o desenvolvimento económico e de definirem uma perspectiva de integraçåo regional que os capacite para a sua reinserção no sistema económico internacional.


Francisco C. Weffort is Professor of Political Science at the University of São Paulo (Brazil) and Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary Culture (CEDEC). During the 1990-91 academic year he was Hewlett Residential Fellow of the Kellogg Institute and Visiting Professor of the University of Notre Dame's Department of Sociology.

This paper is a modified and enlarged version of the author's contribution to the collective book in honor of the 25th anniversary of the Institute for Peruvian Studies (IEP).


Peruvian Economic Policy in the 1980s: From Orthodoxy to Heterodoxy and Back

Manuel Pastor, Jr. and Carol Wise

Working Paper #161 - May 1991

Abstract

This paper examines the dramatic fluctuations in Peruvian macroeconomic policy in the 1980s. We trace the failure of "orthodox" or neoliberal policy in the first half of the decade to external shocks, economic inconsistencies, and the erosion of the state's institutional and administrative capacities. These difficulties paved the way for the triumph of the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA) party in 1985 and the subsequent adoption of a "heterodox" economic program. This program "worked" briefly, then collapsed owing to inattention to the external sector, a flawed approach to inflation control, rising class conflict, and the state's continuing inability to implement its decisions. We close by reviewing the legacy of the decade: deepening social cleavages, highly volatile politics, international isolation, a severely weakened state, and a populace wary of new policy shifts.

Resumen

El trabajo examinas las dramáticas fluctuaciones de las políticas macroeconómicas peruanas en los 1980s. Trazamos la fallida política "ortodoxa" o neoliberal de la primera mitad de la década debido a "shocks" externos, inconsistencias económicas y la erosión de las capacidades institucionales y administrativas del estado. Estas dificultades facilitaron el camino para el triunfo del partido Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana (APRA) en 1985 y la subsecuente adopción de un programa económico "heterodoxo." Este programa "funcionó" brevemente, después se derrumbó debido a la falta de atención del sector externo y del control inflacionario, incrementando el conflicto de clase, y a la ineptitud contínua del gobierno para implementar sus decisiones. Terminamos revisando el legado de la década: profundización de las divisiones sociales, políticas sumamente volátiles, aislamiento internacional, un estado severamente debilitado y una población desconfiada ante nuevos cambios políticos.


Manuel Pastor, Jr. teaches economics at Occidental College in Los Angeles. He has been a Guggenheim Fellow, a Kellogg National Fellow, and a Fulbright Fellow and is the author of several articles on debt and stabilization. He completed a book comparing the macroeconomic policies of Peru and Bolivia in the 1980s.

Carol Wise was a Kellogg Residential Fellow in 1988 and completed a doctoral dissertation, entitled "Peru Post 1968: The Political Limits to State-Led Economic Development," at Columbia University in 1990. She is presently Visiting Professor in the Political Science Department at the University of California at Los Angeles.

The authors would like to thank Luis Arreaga, Mercedes Inez Carazo, Daniel Carbonetto, Jorge Chavez Alvarez, Oscar Dancourt, Cesar Herrara, Jenny Hoyle Cox, Esteban Hynilizca, Jurgen Schuldt, Julio Velarde, and many others for their insightful comments and criticism during visits to Lima in 1985-88 and 1990. Thanks also to the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos and the Universidad del Pacífico for their institutional support. Finally, they thank the Fulbright Commission-Lima for its financial support over the years; Manuel Pastor also thanks the Guggenheim Foundation for its more recent support. This paper is dedicated to Alex Secada.


Reconstituting the Institutional Bases of Consent: Notes on State-Labor Relations and Democratic Consolidation in the Southern Cone

Paul G. Buchanan

Working Paper #160 - May 1991

Abstract

This paper examines the theoretical and practical problems involved in establishing the institutional bases for the achievement of class compromise in postauthoritarian processes of democratic consolidation, with particular reference to Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. Understanding that a democratic class compromise among the working classes, capitalists, and the state involves a mixture of dominant group concessions and subordinate group consent provided by an institutionalized range of choice that has the state as arbiter and enforcer of the specific terms of sectorial agreements, the paper explores the procedural and substantive issues involved, the institutional vehicles offered, and the structural and superstructural obstacles to the achievement of institutionalized forms of class conflict resolution in the Southern Cone. Attention is devoted to the nature of tripartite concentration, the role of national labor administration, and the dynamics of collective action in contexts of economic crisis and political reconstruction, with emphasis on the preauthoritarian legacies that impede or facilitate the establishment of consensual modes of sectorial strategic interaction. Tentative conclusions are drawn about the extreme difficulties of institutionalizing a durable democratic class compromise in countries such as those examined, and about the essential role of national labor administration as the key state apparatus involved in the pursuit of that objective.

Resumen

Este trabajo analiza los problemas teóricos y prácticos relacionados con el establecimiento de las bases institucionales para alcanzar un compromiso de clase en los procesos de consolidación democrática post-autoritarios, haciendo referencia particularmente al caso de Argentina, Brasil y Uruguay. Asumiendo que un compromiso de clase entre las clases trabajadoras, capitalistas y el estado implica una mezcla de concesiones de los grupos dominantes y el consentimiento de los groupos subordinados otorgadas mediante una serie de posibilidades institucionales que ponen al estado como árbitro y ejecutor de los términos específicos de los acuerdos sectorales, el trabajo explora los procedimientos y temas sustantivos tratados, los medios institucionales ofrecidos y los obstáculos estructurales y superestructurales para alcanzar formas institucionalizadas para la solución de conflictos de clase en el Cono Sur. Se da atención a la naturaleza de la concertación tripartita, el papel de la administración nacional de trabajo y la dinámica de acción colectiva en el contexto de la crisis económica y la reconstrucción política, recalcando los legados preautoritarios que impiden o facilitan el establecimiento de modos consensuales de interacción estratégica sectoral. Se esbozan conclusiones tentativas sobre las dificultades estremas para institucionalizar un compromiso de clase duradero en países como los analizados y sobre el papel esencial de las administraciones nacionales de trabajo, la clave del aparato estatal para alcanzar estos objetivos.


Paul G. Buchanan is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Arizona and previously served as Western Hemisphere Area Coordinator and Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. He has held visiting appointments at CEDES (Argentina), IUPERJ (Brazil), the Center for the Study of Foreign Affairs, the Foreign Service Institute, the Department of State, and the Kellogg Institute (spring semester, 1989). He has written articles on labor administration, labor relations, regime change, state terror, corporatism, and authoritarianism in the Southern Cone.

This paper is part of a larger project titled State, Labor, Capital: Institutionalizing Democratic Class Conflict in the Southern Cone. Financial support for the project has been provided by the Naval Postgraduate School Research Foundation, the USIS Fulbright Research Fellowship Program, and the Heinz Endowment. Portions of the paper were written at the Center for the Study of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Service Institute, Department of State, CEDES (Buenos Aires), IUPERJ (Rio de Janeiro), and the Kellogg Institute, to whom the author is indebted.


The Latin American Church in the Wojtyla's Era: New Evangelization or "Neo-Integralism"?

José-María Ghio

Working Paper #159 - May 1991

Abstract

This paper focus on two related topics: the ideological production of the Latin American Bishops Conference (CELAM) during the last two decades, and the dominant element that characterizes John Paul II's project for the Latin American Church. It attempts to show the institutional reaction to recent changes taking place in Latin American Catholicism. The author analyzes first how the conflict over Liberation Theology resulted in a program of systematic re-elaboration of the Social Doctrine of the Church, in which essential components of preconciliar Catholicism have re-emerged. Secondly, he examines the ideological foundation of what has come to be known as the "new evangelizing process." Here, he concentrates particularly on the analysis of the Theology of Culture and in the role it plays in the design of the new evangelization. Finally, the paper analyzes the "neo-integralist" elements that have emerged under the papacy of John Paul II.

Resumen

Este trabajo se concentra en dos temas relacionados: la producción ideológica de la Conferencia Episcopal Latinoamericana (CELAM) durante los últimos veinte años y los componentes centrales que caracterizan el proyecto eclesiástico de Juan Pablo II para la Iglesia Católica Latinoamericana. Se destaca la reacción institucional que acompañó a los recientes cambios del catolicismo latinoamericano. El autor analiza primero cómo el conflicto sobre la Teología de la Liberación implicó un programa de revisión sistemática de la Doctrina Social de la Iglesia, en donde han reaparecido elementos esenciales del catolicismo pre-conciliar. En segundo lugar, examina los fundamentos ideológicos, la denominada "nueva evangelización," deteniéndose especialmente en el estudio del rol desempeñado por la Teología de la Cultura dentró de este proyecto. Finalmente, analiza los elementos "neo-integristas" que han surgido durante el papado de Juan Pablo II.


José María Ghio, a Residential Fellow at the Institute during the 1990 spring semester, has been Visiting Fellow at the Center for European and Latin American Research (EURAL) in Buenos Aires since 1988 and Assistant Professor in the Department of History at the Universidad de la Plata since 1983. From 1981 to 1983 he was Assistant Professor in the Department of Social Sciences at the University of Rio Cuarto in Córdoba. He has also been the recipient of fellowships from the Ford Foundation, the Organization of American States (OAS), and the Argentine Scientific Research Council. Among his articles is "Puebla and the Return to Democracy: The Argentine Church," in a book on the Latin American Church edited by Margaret Crahan (Columbia University: 1989).

Portions of this paper were presented at the conference "The Right in Latin American Democracies," April 20-21, 1990, Columbia University, New York. The author wishes to thank Ralph Della Cava, Scott Mainwaring, and Timothy Scully for helpful comments.


Industrialists, Labor Relations, and the Transition to Democracy in Brazil

Leigh A. Payne

Working Paper #158 - April 1991

Abstract

This paper is a case study of Brazilian industrialists' attitudes towards changes in labor relations during the transition to democracy. It is based on extensive interviews with 155 industrial elites in Brazil during 1987-1988. It explores why business elites can and will tolerate democracy, even when it does not always act in their specific interests. It focuses on four key variables in the transition period: 1) the degree of radicalism in society; 2) the pace of change; 3) business elites' institutional channels; and 4) business elites' political strength.

Resumen

Este trabajo es un estudio sobre el caso de las actitudes de los industriales brasileños hacia los cambios en las relaciones laborales durante la transición a la democracia. Se basa en extensas entrevistas con 155 élites industriales en Brasil entre 1985-1988. Analiza por qué empresas élites pueden tolerar y toleran la democracia, incluso si no siempre responde a sus intereses específicos. El trabajo enfoca cuatro variables claves en el período de transición: 1) el grado de radicalización en la sociedad; 2) la pauta de cambio; 3) los canales institucionales de las firmas élites y; 4) la fuerza de las firmas élites.


Leigh A. Payne is a Lecturer in Political Science at Yale University. She recently completed her dissertation on "Pragmatic Actors: The Political Attitudes and Behavior of Brazilian Industrial Elites" at Yale University. Her research focuses on business elites, particularly capital-labor relations, in the transition to democracy in Latin America.

She has an article in Comparative Politics on "Working Class Strategies in the Transition to Democracy in Brazil."


Cuba y la Nueva Economia Mundial: El reto de la insercion en America Latina y el Caribe

Pedro Monreal

Working Paper #157 - April 1991

Abstract

This paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities that Cuba faces in the context of the recent developments of the world economy. Special attention is given to the issue of Cuban economic integration into Latin America and the Caribbean as a component of the restructuring of Cuba's external economic relations. This problem is currently discussed in Cuba as part of a broader debate on the restructuring of the Cuban socialist model.

Resumen

Este trabajo examina los retos y oportunidades que se les presentan a Cuba en el contexto de los más recientes desarrollos de la economía internacional. Se le dedica especial atención a la cuestión de la integración económica de Cuba en los marcos de América Latina y el Caribe como parte del inevitable proceso de rearticulación de los vínculos económicos externos de Cuba. El tema analizado forma parte de un debate más amplio que se desarrolla actualmente en Cuba acerca de la restructuración del modelo socialista cubano.


Pedro Monreal is a Research Associate of the Centro de Estudios sobre América (CEA) in Havana, Cuba. He is Adjunct Professor of the University of Havana and of the Institute for International Relations (Havana), and has written several articles and books on US-Latin American economic relations. In the fall 1990 semester he was a Fellow of the Kellogg Institute.


Present Stages of Economic Reforms and Privitization Programs in Eastern Europe: The Cases of East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Hungary

Lucjan T. Orlowski

Working Paper #156 - April 1991

Abstract

East European economies are in the process of experiencing an unprecedented transition from a central planning to a market system, parallel to the democratization of the political sphere. The main purpose of this paper is to show a sequencing of the economic deregulation and expectations at each stage of economic transformation. The author presents a critique of central planning and advocates a free market as a desirable direction for reform programs. Selected components of these programs are critically examined. Among them, far reaching and unrestricted privatization, discretionary monetary policy, full convertibility of domestic currencies and large-scale deregulation of businesses are favored. The author emphasizes the dangers for successful reform of excessive taxation, protectionism, and exaggerated regulatory involvement of governments. He advocates a comprehensive, gradually sequenced approach to reform programs somewhat different from the "shock therapy" proposed by several academic economists and government policymakers. The suggested transition to market structures is subdivided into three stages: 1. the period of decentralization of major pricing categories; 2. decomposition of monopolies and activation of competitive markets; 3. accelerated economic growth and capital accumulation. Anticipated patterns of inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, and national income are derived for each of these periods. The final section examines current problems of integrating the East German provinces and implementing reform programs in Czechoslovakia, Poland, and Hungary. Concluding remarks focus on aspects of East European restructuring that may affect multinational firms' strategic plans for their involvement in this region.

Resumen

Las economías de Europa Oriental están en el proceso de experimentar una transición sin precedentes de un sistema central planificado a un sistema de mercado, paralelo a una democratización de la esfera política. El propósito principal del trabajo presentado es el de mostrar una secuencia de deregulación económica y de expectaciones a cada etapa de la transformación económica. El autor presenta una crítica al sistema central planificado y aboga por el sistema de mercado libre como una dirección deseada de los programas de reforma. Componentes selectos de estos programas son examinados críticamente. Entre éstos son favorecidas una privatización de gran alcance y sin restricciones, una política monetaria discrecional, la convertibilidad total de las monedas nacionales y una deregulación a gran escala de empresas. Son recalcados los peligros de impuestos excesivos, del proteccionismo y de las políticas regulatorias exageradas por parte de los gobiernos para asegurar el éxito de las reformas. El autor persigue un análisis comprensivo, de secuencia gradual de los programas de reforma, algo diferente a las "terapias de choque" propuestas por varios economistas académicos y políticos gubernamentales. La transición a estructuras de mercado sugerida se subdivide en tres etapas: 1. el período de decentralización de las categorías de precios principales, 2. decomposición de monopolios y activación de mercados competitivos, 3. una acumulación de crecimiento económico acelerado y de capital. Patrones de inflación anticipados, tasas de cambio, tasas de interés y de ingreso nacional son derivadas para cada uno de estos períodos. La sección final examina los problemas actuales para integrar las provincias de Alemania Oriental y los programas de reforms en Checoslovaquia, Polonia y Hungría. Las observaciones finales enfocan aspectos sobre la reestructuración de Europa Oriental que pudiesen afectar los planes estratégicos de empresas multinaciones relacionados a su involucramiento en esta región.


Lucjan T. Orlowski is currently an American Council on Education and Faculty Fellow at the University of Notre Dame. His academic career began at the Academy of Economics in Katowice, Poland, where he received a doctorate in international economics. His dissertation focused on comparative systems of trade protectionism. In 1981 he was coauthor of a Solidarity sponsored draft on economic reforms completed at the Academy of Economics at Poznan. From 1981 to 1983 he was a Visiting Fulbright Professor at New York University Graduate School of Business Administration, where he taught and conducted research in international economics, finance, and banking. In 1983 he became a faculty member at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, Connecticut, where he held the positions of Chairperson of the Department of Financial Studies and, more recently, of Acting Provost and Academic Vice President. His publications concentrate on issues of informational economics, decentralization and marketization of economic systems, macroeconomic stabilization, and trade policy.


Industrial Organization and Comparative Advantage in Mexico's Manufacturing Trade

Jaime Ros

Working Paper #155 - March 1991

Abstract

This paper examines some features of Mexico's foreign trade in manufactures from the perspective of recent developments in international trade theory, while bringing some characteristics of Mexico's industrial organization into the analysis. After a brief review of the applied literature on Mexico's foreign trade, the paper develops a taxonomy of manufacturing industries, according to the nature and volume of its foreign trade. This exercise, which relies primarily on the distinction between intra- and inter-industry trade, provides a framework for an analysis of the relationships between trade flows, economies of scale, and market structure conditions. This analysis is based on Industrial Census data for 1975 and 1980, and on foreign trade data for the 1978-1983 period. The final section summarizes the main research findings and conclusions, and an appendix explains in detail the methods and data sources.

Resumen

Este trabajo examina algunas facetas del comercio exterior de manufacturas de México desde la perspectiva de los recientes desarrollos en la teoría del comercio internacional, e introduce al análisis algunas características de la organización industrial de México. Después de una breve reseña en la primera sección, sobre la literatura aplicada al comercio exterior de México, la segunda sección desarrolla una taxonomía de las industrias manufactureras, de acuerdo a la naturaleza y al volúmen de su comercio exterior. Este ejercicio se basa principalmente en la distinción del comercio intra- e interindustrial y provee un marco de análisis, en la tercera y cuarta sección, sobre las relaciones entre los flujos comerciales, las economías de escala, y las condiciones estructurales del mercado. Este análisis está basado en datos del Censo Industrial de 1975 y 1980 y en datos del comercio exterior del período 1978-1983. La quinta sección resume los logros y las conclusiones principales y un apéndice explica en detalle la método y las fuentes de datos.


Jaime Ros Bosch, a Mexican economist, is Associate Professor of Economics and Departmental Fellow of the Kellogg Institute at the University of Notre Dame. He was senior researcher at ILET (Instituto Latinoamericano de Estudios Transnacionales) and former Director of the Department of Economics, CIDE (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas), Mexico. He is a graduate of the Universidad Autónoma de México and of the University of Cambridge, England. He has done research and published numerous articles on Mexico's economic problems, applied macroeconomics, and industrial economics. He is currently working on inflation and macroeconomic policies in Latin America. In spring 1988 he was a residential fellow at the Kellogg Institute.

An earlier version of this paper was produced as a part of a larger research project on Industrial Organization in Mexico, at the Instituto Latinoamericano de Estudios Transnacionales (ILET), Mexico City. The present version was written during a stay at the Kellogg Institute for International Studies, University of Notre Dame. The author gratefully acknowledges the support and hospitality from both institutions. The ILET project provided much of the original data on which the paper is based; in this respect, he would like to thank Gabriela Dutrenit, Randolph Gilbert, and Susana Marvan for their excellent research assistance. He is also indebted for comments and suggestions to José Casar, Kwan Kim, Carlos Marquez, Juan Carlos Moreno, and Claudia Schatan, as well as to participants in seminars at ILET, Mexico City. The remaining errors are entirely his own responsibility.


When Failure Becomes Success: Class and the Debate over Stabilization and Adjustment

David F. Ruccio

Working Paper #154 - March 1991

Abstract

This paper criticizes the current debate over stabilization and adjustment and develops an alternative, class-analytic approach. First, the respective theories and policy recommendations of neoclassical and structuralist economists are analyzed. Then, the paper considers the recent experiences of Argentina, Brazil, and Peru where orthodox and heterodox policies have been attempted and declared failures. Finally, it is shown that those failures with respect to employment, inflation, and the balance of payments become successes to the extent that they involve increasing exploitation and otherwise strengthening the class aspects of capitalism.

Resumen

Este ensayo critica el debate actual sobre la estabilización y el ajuste y desarrolla una alternativa, una investigación analítica de clase. Primero, se analizan las respectivas recomendaciones teóricas y políticas de economistas neoclásicos y estructuralistas. Después, el ensayo considera las recientes experiencias de Argentina, Brasil y Perú, donde las políticas ortodoxas y heterodoxas han sido intentadas y declaradas como un fracaso. Por último, se muestra que estos fracasos con respecto al empleo, la inflación y la balanza de pagos se han convertido en éxitos al grado que implican una creciente explotación y en general el fortalecimiento de los aspectos de clase del capitalismo.


David F. Ruccio is Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and Director of Latin American Area Studies at the University of Notre Dame and an editor of the journal Rethinking Marxism. He specializes in Latin American development, international political economy, and methodology. He has published numerous articles and chapters on those topics and has coedited (with Kwan Kim) Debt and Development in Latin America (Kellogg Institute series with University of Notre Dame Press).

He completed a book on alternative theoretical approaches and policy responses to changes in the world economy. This paper was published in World Development, 1991.

Invaluable criticisms and suggestions on earlier drafts were offered by Stephen Resnick and Richard Wolff. Previous versions were presented at the conference on "Global Imbalances: Alternative Perspectives on the International Economy" at American University, the conference on "Bringing Classes Back In" at the University of Kansas-Lawrence, the Economic History and Economic Development Workshop at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, and the Economic Development Workshop and the Kellogg at the University of Notre Dame.


Wage Differentials and Efficiency Wage Models: Evidence from the Chilean Economy

Pilar Romaguera

Working Paper #153 - March 1991

Abstract

This paper conducts an empirical investigation of wage differentials and theories of wage determination for the Chilean economy. Competitive and efficiency wage theories of the labor market are examined and their implications for the existence of wage differentials are discussed. The investigation reveals the existence of statistically significant interindustrial wage differentials, and shows the consistency of their patterns across time, occupations, and firm size. It is not only the existence of wage differentials but also the regularities of their patterns that are particularly difficult to reconcile with a competitive explanation. Wages inside a firm are highly correlated across occupations, lending support to the hypothesis that equity considerations matter in wage determination. In agreement with other studies on wage differentials, the paper finds that high paying industries comprise large, capital-intensive firms, which are highly concentrated and earn above average profits. The extent to which this relation between wage differentials and firm characteristics supports efficiency wage models is discussed. In short, the behavior of the Chilean labor market poses a number of questions for the competitive hypothesis. The results of this research are consistent with the predictions of efficiency wage models.

Resumen

Este estudio realiza una investigación empírica sobre el tema de diferenciales de salario y teorías de determinación de salarios, analizando el caso específico de la economía chilena durante el período 1937-1987. El estudio examina tanto teorías competitivas, como teorías de salarios de eficiencia, y discute la relevancia de ambas en la explicación de los diferenciales de salarios. La investigación revela la existencia de diferenciales de salario estadísticamente significativos, y demuestra la consistencia del patrón de dichos diferenciales a través del tiempo, entre ocupaciones y firmas de distinto tamaño. Tanto la existencia de diferenciales de salario, como sus regularidades, son difíciles de reconciliar con explicaciones competitivas de determinación de los salarios. En particular, los salarios al interior de las empresas muestran ser altamente correlacionados, evidencia que apoya la hipótesis de que consideraciones de equidad son importantes en el proceso de determinación de las remuneraciones. En forma similar a otros estudios, encontramos que las industrias con elevados salarios relativos se caracterizan por estar compuestas por firmas de gran tamaño, intensivas en capital, con alto grado de concentración y utilidades superiores al promedio industrial. El estudio discute hasta que punto esta relación entre diferenciales de salario y características de la firma, apoya las hipótesis de los modelos de salarios de eficiencia. En resumen nuestro estudio demuestra que el comportamiento del mercado laboral chileno, en el período analizado, cuestiona la hipótesis de un comportamiento competitivo de dicho mercado. Por el contrario, los resultados de la investigación apoyan las predicciones de los modelos de salarios de eficiencia.


Pilar Romaguera is a graduate of the Universidad de Chile and of Boston University and currently a researcher at CIEPLAN (Corporación de Investigaciones Económicas para América Latina) in Santiago de Chile. In spring 1989 she was a residential fellow at the Kellogg Institute.

To a large extent this paper summarizes and reviews parts of her thesis. It was written during her stay at the Kellogg Institute and she would like to gratefully acknowledge the hospitality of the institution.


Argentina, de Nuevo

Guillermo O'Donnell

Working Paper #152 - February 1991

Abstract

This paper attempts to throw light on the recent crisis in Argentina. The author argues that the crisis, in addition to its economic, political, and social dimensions, affected the state itself in some of its most constitutive aspects. A state that lacked both currency and the power of coercion aggravated the crisis to a paroxysm. The paper begins with an account of the transition to democracy, stressing the heavy inheritance of the military regime: upheaval of the economy; impoverishment of the state apparatus; decreasing salaries; and, of course, the weight of the external debt. This inheritance did indeed impose severe limitations on Alfonsín's government, but at least he could have avoided making the situation worse. Without attempting a complete analysis of the causes of the Argentine crisis, the author develops some aspects that have been significant in precipitating it and that might be of interest for understanding other transitions: "the curse of populism," "the aparatismo," and "a certain style of making economic policy" in Alfonsín's government. Together these errors added up to one of the most determinant causes of the current situation.

Resumen

El autor intenta arrojar luz sobre la reciente crisis en Argentina. Analiza que la crisis, más allá de sus dimensiones económicas, políticas y sociales, afecta al propio estado en algunos de sus aspectos más constitutivos. Un estado sin moneda se complementó con un estado sin capacidad de coerción, impulsando así la crisis hasta su paroxismo. Comienza por hacer un recuento de la transición a la democracia. Señala que a pesar de la pesada herencia que dejó el régimen militar-desquicio de la economía; empobrecimiento del aparato del estado; caída de los salarios; y, agobiante el peso de la deuda externa-, la cual limitó de mil maneras al gobierno de Alfonsín, éste por lo menos podía no haber empeorado la situación. Sin intentar dar una respuesta total al por qué de la reciente crisis en Argentina, el autor desarrolla algunos aspectos que han sido importantes en la precipitación de la misma y que pueden ser de interés para otras transiciones: "la maldición del populismo", "el aparatismo", y "cierto estilo de hacer política económica" del gobierno de Alfonsín. Este último aspecto contribuyó a uno de los errores más determinantes de la crisis actual.


Guillermo O'Donnell, Helen Kellogg Professor of Sociology and Government and International Studies, is Academic director of the Institute.


Statecraft, Social Policy, and Governance in Latin America

James M. Malloy

Working Paper #151 - February 1991

Abstract

The paper develops an analytical framework designed to examine social policy as a strategic approach to issues of state-society relations and the problem of governance in Latin America. The paper argues that in Latin America and particularly Brazil social protection policy flowed from initiating capacity concentrated originally in the state, and specifically in a technobureaucratic elite connected to a strong executive. The policy, however, produced structures wherein initiative capacity was dispersed into a multiple of intermediate points at the nexus between the state and civil society. This in turn led to an immobilized dissipation of initiative capacity in this specific policy area which was symptomatic of, and reinforcing to, a generalized immobilism or power implosion that periodically has gripped these sociopolitical formations, producing shifts from formally democratic to authoritarian regimes and vice versa.

Resumen

El trabajo desarrolla un modelo analítico diseñado para examinar las políticas sociales como un acercamiento estratégico para las temas como la relación Estado-sociedad y el problema de la governabilidad en América Latina. El trabajo sostiene que la política de protección social en Latinoamérica y especialmente en Brasil, procedió de una capacidad inicial concentrada originalmente en el Estado, especificamente en una élite tecnoburocrática relacionada con un Ejecutivo fuerte. Sin embargo esta política produjo estructuras dentro de las cuales la capacidad de iniciativa fue dispersada en un múltiple de puntos intermediarios con un nexo entre el Estado y la sociedad civil. Ello a su vez llevó a una disipación inmobilizada de la capacidad de iniciativa en esta área específica de la política, que fue sintomática e impulsó un inmobilismo generalizado o una implosión de poder que periódicamente azota estas formaciones sociopolíticas produciendo cambios de democracias formales hasta regímenes autoritarios y vice versa.


James Malloy is Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh and Research Professor at the University Center for International Studies.

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