" Justin Trudeau top pick for Liberal leader: poll

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Justin Trudeau top pick for Liberal leader: poll

Norma Greenaway, Canwest News Service  Published: Tuesday, October 28, 2008

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David Boily/AFP/Getty ImagesA poll puts new Liberal MP Justin Trudeau as the top choice for Liberal leader.

OTTAWA -- He is tall, dark-haired and handsome. He won a seat in the House of Commons on his first try. He's got a famous name. He has a picture-perfect young family. On top of all that, Justin Trudeau is the top pick among Canadians of all political stripes and most age groups as the next leader of the federal Liberal party, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll.

Trouble is, the 36-year-old first-born son of the late Pierre Trudeau says he's not interested in the party's top job this early in his nascent political career.

Pollster John Wright says he suspects most Canadians know Mr. Trudeau ""can't be taken seriously as a serious candidate"" to replace outgoing leader Stephane Dion, given his lack of political and life experience in the face of such economically challenging times.

Instead, Mr. Wright says he interprets Canadians' choice of Mr. Trudeau as meaning either the party is bereft of recognizable leaders, or it has a genuinely clean slate heading into the leadership contest. Mr. Wright comes down on the side of the latter.

""There's no heir apparent. There's no air of excitement. There's no air of appointment,"" Mr. Wright, senior vice-president of Ipsos Reid, said in an interview.

The online survey, released Tuesday and conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National, explored Canadians' support for nine potential Liberal leadership candidates. Among Canadians of all parties, it said, Mr. Trudeau finished first with 16 per cent of the vote. He also scored the most support among those aged 18 to 55, and he was the hands-down favourite among women voters.

Michael Ignatieff, the party's current deputy leader, and Frank McKenna, the former New Brunswick premier who announced Tuesday he would not be a candidate, were tied for second with 12% of the vote. The two men also were the most popular choice among Canadians 55 and older, each garnering 16% of the vote. Toronto MP Bob Rae, a former NDP premier of Ontario, finished in third spot at nine per cent.

Other potential contenders were well back. John Manley, a former deputy leader, had five per cent, and Toronto MP Gerard Kennedy, a former leadership candidate, had three per cent. New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc, who has all but officially declared his candidacy, and Toronto-area MPs Martha Hall Findlay and Ruby Dhalla each registered one per cent.

Among the 26% of those surveyed who said they would vote Liberal if an election were held today, Messrs. Ignatieff and McKenna each pulled 19% of that support and Trudeau pulled 17% putting the three men into a statistical dead heat, given the survey's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Mr. Rae was next at 10%.

The other potential contenders finished well back. Mr. Kennedy had five per cent support, Mr. Manley and Ms. Hall Findlay each had three per cent, and Mr. LeBlanc and Ms. Dhalla came in under one per cent.

Mr. Wright said the poll, which also said one in 10 of those surveyed said ""none of the above"" when asked to make a choice, points to a wide-open race.

""It doesn't rule anybody in. It doesn't rule anybody out. It's an opportunity,"" he said.

Mr. Wright said the findings, taken in conjunction with the results of other surveys, suggest there is a yearning in the Liberal party and the country as a whole for something new, but not necessarily at the expense of experience.

Mr. Wright says Mr. Trudeau can be ""part of the solution"" for the party if Liberals use his youth, crowd appeal and fundraising abilities. But they need someone different for leader, he says.

""I think the issue over the next number of years may be how much experience people [potential leaders] have had with the economy and running a government, someone who can go eye-to-eye go toe-to-toe with Stephen Harper and help rebuild the party,"" he said.

The online survey, involving 1,012 adults, was conducted Wednesday through Saturday. Ipsos Reid said the sample's composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census data and is considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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