" Opinion: Russia Capitalizes on New World Disorder - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News



Tuesday, 10/28/2008

International

 

 
08/14/2008
 

Font:

OPINION

Russia Capitalizes on New World Disorder

By Gerhard Spörl

The war in the Caucasus is a truly global crisis. Russia's action against the western-looking Georgia testifies to an extreme craving for recognition and is reminiscent of the Cold War. It reveals the reality of the chaotic new world order -- a result of the failures of President Bush's foreign policy.

AP

Ossetian soldiers on top of a tank enter Tskhinvali next to a giant portrait of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

When the German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier describes the overall situation in the world, he likes to refer to what he calls a ""new complexity"" of circumstances. Yet things were already complex before the war in the Caucasus region, which has its roots in the 19th century more than in the 21st, but now we have been deprived of one small piece of ignorance. Who would have even bothered to try and pinpoint South Ossetia on the map or to carefully differentiate it from North Ossetia before the conflict? And this is supposed to be a world crisis?

But it is one indeed, because the crisis has given oil and gas producer Russia an alibi for cleaning up along its borders in places like Georgia, where the United States and NATO were beginning to exert their influence. It is a world crisis, because this wounded ex-superpower decided, some time ago, that it was going to put an end to a phase of humiliation and losses, of NATO and American expansion.

People took to the streets in the Baltic states, and the Polish president traveled to Georgia to participate in a show of solidarity among the weak, among countries with a long historical memory of what Russia can do to the weak. It is no coincidence that Eastern Europeans suspect that the West is hedging its bets, as it did in 1938, 1956, 1961 and 1968, in loud silence and inactive appeasement. Their illusions are suddenly dropping away like autumn leaves.

REPRINTS

Part of the truth is that the United States had rather relished treating Russia and its then president, Vladimir Putin, as yesterday's superpower and leader. US President George W. Bush withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and invented a missile shield in the Czech Republic and Poland. The revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia, reverberations of the revolutionary fall of 1989, were made possible by the gracious assistance and coaching of American foundations and think tanks. There was nothing wrong with this approach, but America, the overwhelmingly superior superpower, was petty enough to gloat over its achievements.

A Touch of the Old Cold War

John McCain, who hopes to become the 44th US president, has come up with the spectacular idea of establishing a league of democracies that would address the world's problems whenever the United Nations is gridlocked, in other words, whenever there is an important issue on the table. If this league existed today, would intervention forces already have been deployed to the Caucasus? And now McCain has come up with the no less original idea of excluding Russia from the golden circle of G8 nations. Does anyone have any other bright ideas on how to punish the miscreant?

RELATED SPIEGEL ONLINE LINKS

The new complexity consists of the fact that a few opportunities were missed after 1989, such as the chance to develop a resilient relationship among the European Union, NATO and Russia. Before long, our only concern will be over whether we should in fact entrust the Russia, as uninterested in democracy as they are, with our energy security.

It is true that there is a touch of the old Cold War to August 2008. And yet it is also true that the month's events constitute only a subcategory of the larger complexity in which the world finds itself today. The United States is the common denominator. On the one hand, it had no qualms about tormenting Russia, and yet it is incapable of coming to Georgia's aid. It was also apparently unable to dissuade the Georgian president from embarking on his adventure. CNN is so enamored of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili that he is constantly asked to appear on the news network for interviews, so that he can instill his view of things -- of Georgia on the road to democracy, and of Russia succumbing to revanchism -- in Americans, to the delight of the White House.

A Lopsided Multipolarity

The world ceased to be a unipolar place when the Iraq war began. When the neocons used the word unipolarity, they were referring to the idea that the world's sole superpower, thanks to its military superiority, could assume that it was entitled to the role of global cop, and that the world must bend to its will, whether it wanted to or not.

Now a new technical term has come into circulation: multipolarity. It means that a number of powers can do as they please, without punishment, and no one can do much about it. China can do as it pleases with Tibet, the Uyghurs and its dissidents, and it can buy its energy where it pleases. India can sign a nuclear treaty with the United States, and can then vacillate between choosing to ditch the agreement and keep it in place. Iran can decide to become a nuclear power and then wait to see what happens, to see whether Israel and the United States, for example, will issue empty threats of air strikes while Russia and China obstruct the superpower in the UN Security Council whenever it calls for effective resolutions.

NEWSLETTER

But the new multipolarity is lopsided. America is still the power without which nothing works -- whether it be sensible or senseless. China is moving in its own orbit and is unlikely to move forward as quickly as it had hoped until recently. It's easier to win gold medals than establish a stable world power by combining capitalism with communism. India is drifting along behind China, struggling with its own domestic problems and unable to decide whether it should throw in its lot with China or the United States.

And Russia? It has a tremendous craving for recognition and a ludicrous amount of money. That money could be put to great use, to develop a nation, for example. That would be a goal that made sense. In the long run, Putin will have to stop playing the bare-chested macho man, the great loner who couldn't care less about alliances and world opinion.

And so the world finds itself in a state of new complexity. It's a nice, inoffensive term, one difficult to criticize. Things are already tremendously in flux. But aren't things always in flux, sometimes more, sometimes less? In 1957, the new British Prime Harold Macmillan was asked what would determine the course of his government. ""Events, my good man, events,"" he replied. Yesterday there was Iraq, today there is the Caucasus, and the Palestinian problem never seems to go away.

What will tomorrow bring?

CONFLICT IN THE CAUCASUS

Georgia and the Breakaway Regions

Since peeling away from Georgia in a 1990-1992 war, South Ossetia has been de facto independent. Russians participated in a mixed peacekeeping force following a ceasefire agreement in 1992. Although under international law the breakaway region of Abkhazia is part of Georgia, it is financially backed by Russia. Most Abkhazians hold Russian passports.

Both in 1992 and 2006 South Ossetians voted for independence from Georgia, but the referenda were not recognized by the international community. President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia has repeatedly announced his intention to bring the renegade region under the control of the central government in Tiflis.

Russia's Role

Friction between Russia and Georgia over control of the Caucasus regions has redoubled during past months. Georgia accuses Russia of wanting to annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Russia is in a difficult position. Moscow warned the West against recognizing Kosovo's declaration of independence earlier this year, saying that similar declarations among former Soviet satellites would result. The Russian argument that South Ossetia has a right to autonomy, however, was never extended to Chechnya. The West recognized Kosovo over Russian protest. Now the Kremlin's revenge may well be to officially acknowledge South Ossetia's independence from Georgia.

The US Role

The US takes Georgia's side in the conflict. Americans consider President Mikhail Saakashvili a faithful ally, and US military advisors support him given Georgian participation in the Iraq war. US President Bush has accused Russia of a ""disproportionate"" response and US Ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad said Russia was following a ""campaign of terror."" Russia has rejected the accusations.

Current Conflict and the UN

The UN Security Council could not agree on a position regarding the situation proposed by Russia Friday. The Russian document urged Georgia and South Ossetia to cease fighting immediately. Russia requested the council's Friday emergency meeting. Since then, debate in the Security Council has degenerated into a tit-for-tat between Russia and the United States.

Members did not reach an agreement on the text proposed by Russia. The Security Council nevertheless expressed its alarm over the escalation of the conflict. The Russian proposal requested ""immediate cessation of violence"" and a return to the negotiating table. Georgia, backed up by the US, viewed the proposal as hemming its opportunity to defend itself. So no agreement was reached.



RELATED SPIEGEL ONLINE LINKS



© SPIEGEL ONLINE 2008
All Rights Reserved
Reproduction only allowed with the permission of SPIEGELnet GmbH



PICTURE THIS
  • AP

TODAY'S STORIES


THE SUMMER WAR IN GEORGIA
  • AP

THE US ELECTIONS


NEWS FROM NRC.NL
NRC Handelsblad



NEWS FROM ABCNEWS.COM
ABC News




NEWS FROM IHT.COM
International Herald Tribune



NEWS FROM NYT.COM
New York Times




DER SPIEGEL

Highlights from the latest issue of Germany's newsmagazine.


SPIEGEL SPECIALS
  • DPA

ADVERTISING WITH SPIEGEL