Accurate and verifiable predictions of flow patterns and contaminant transport across  a wide range of environmental flows are notoriously tedious because of complexities  introduced by turbulent flows, spatial geometries and natural uncertainties. The lack of sufficient site characterization, computational resources, and occasionally,  the inadequacy of conceptualizations and mathematical models of relevant physical  phenomena complicate modeling efforts further. These problems introduce a

fundamental lack of certainty about any predicted flow and cast doubts on the  feasibility of obtaining a single deterministic prediction of a contamination scenario.

In this line of work we take methods for assesing risk that have traditionally been used  in systems engineered by humans (e.g. nuclear power plants, space shuttle) and try to  extend them to environmental contamination scenarios. The difficulty here is that this  typicallly involves the combination of engineered and natural systems. Engineered  systems are typically well understood and characterized while natural systems are  not. As such combining these two provides an interesting challenge.

Relevant Papers

A. Jurado, F. De Gaspari, V. Vilarrasa, D. Bolster, X. Sanchez-Vila, D. Fernandez-Garcia, E. Vazquez-Sune, D. M. Tartakovsky
Probabilistic analysis of groundwater-related risks at subsurface excavation sites, Engineering Geology 125 (2012) 35–44,doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2011.10.015

D Fernandez-Garcia, D Bolster, X Sanchez-Vila and DM Tartakovsky
A Bayesian Approach to Integrate Time Data into Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Remediation Efforts in NAPL-Polluted Sites
Advances in Water Resources, Vol 36, P 108-120

D Pedretti, M Barahona-Palomo, D Bolster, D Fernandez-Garcia, X Sanchez-Vila and DM Tartakovsky
Probabilistic Analysis of Maintenance and operation of Artificial Recharge Ponds
Advances in Water Resources, Vol 36, P 23-35

FPJ de Barros, D Bolster, X Sanchez-Vila and W Nowak
A Divide and Conquer Approach to Cope with Uncertainty, Human Health Risk and Decision Making in Contaminant Hydrology
Water Resources Research, VOL. 47, W05508, 13 PP., 2011 doi:10.1029/2010WR009954

Bolster D., Barahona , Dentz M., Fernandez Garcia D., Sanchez-Vila X., Trichero P,
Volhondo C, Tartakovsky DM (2009)
"Probabilistic Risk Assessment applied to contamination scenarios in porous media"
Water Resources Research, 45, W06413, doi:10.1029/2008WR007551.