1. Worry, fear, and hope seldom lead to wise policy prescriptions

2. Wise prescription depends on analysis

3. Analysis amounts to discerning patterns in the events of concern

4. Specifying what the pattern(s) is and how it works is theory building

5. A well specified pattern is a theory. A theory is a causal statement (AB>B) along with an explanation of why.

6. A theory which is accurate (rests on firm evidentiary and methodological foundations) is at least roughly predictive.

7. Policy recommendations are predictions.

Govt 241: Lecture 2, Main Outline

  1. Review last class
    1. Policy requires analysis and analysis is theory
    2. Thinking analytically about different arguments and theories requires methodology
  2. IR is complex
    1. Levels of Analysis
    2. Waltz and the structural level
  3. Methods:
    1. Guns and Butter
      1. correlation vs. causation
      2. quantitative and case study
    2. Relative gains?
    3. Global governance?

    Levels of Analysis

  4. Structural
    1. Ordering principles, functions, and capabilities of units
    2. Anarchy, Functional Similarity (even with Different Capabilities)
    3. Three Effects (for now): 1. Self Help; 2. Relative Gains; 3. Collective Action Problems
  5. State - internal structure
  6. People - innate and idiosyncratic variants
  7. Trans-national? IOs, NGOs, media...
  8. What questions are best answered by looking at what level? What kind of solutions for problems exist at each level?

    9. Capra's Prelude to War

    Themes/Questions (write this down - we'll discuss it on Tuesday, and I'll want answers...):

  9. International relations changes fast. As seen in the film, the 1920s saw agreements outlawing war (Kellogg/Briand Pact), various arms control deals, and the League of Nations. But early in the 1930s saw the rise and march of Fascism.
  10. What happened? Could it happen again? What today makes the recurrence of similar events harder or easier? If bad things happen, how will they be different or the same?
  11. This Academy Award best documentary for 1943 was made for a purpose. What was the purpose? How much of this film is the truth, and how much is spin?
  12. If you were making an anti-American film then, what would you include? And now?

    13. Prisoner's Dilemma

    Prisoner # 1

    Silent Confess

    Silent

    #2

     

    Confess

     

     

    Fisherperson=s Dilemma

    Fisher # 1

    Cooperate Cheat

     

    Cooperate

    Fisher #2

    Cheat

    +5 +5

    +10

    -5

    -5

    +10

    -10

    -10

    Class outline for Lecture 3 F01

  13. Housekeeping
  14. CEs
  15. Review
    1. Starting point for realism: structure
      1. anarchy vs hierarchy
    2. Anarchy leads to:
      1. War is always possible
        1. Self-help (aka, sort of, functional similarity)
          1. Concerns for Relative Gains
            1. security dilemma
          2. Collective action problems
            1. tragedy of the commons
    3. Distribution of capabilities:
      1. Unipolarity, Bipolarity, Multipolarity
        1. Which is most/least stable and why?
        2. (answered next class, under Walt)
  16. Methods:
    1. A Theory: Causal Statement (AC>B) + Explanation
    2. Guns and Butter
      1. correlation vs. causation
      2. quantitative and case study methods
    3. Relative gains? Global governance?
  17. Today=s Theme: Effects of Anarchy
  18. Jervis and the Security Dilemma
    1. What is it? (see SD slide)
      1. It is the relative gains problem, applied to military/security problems
      2. Often only means weapons, but I think it also describes a general level of fear in overall threat assessments
    2. Offense/Defense Balance
      1. Influences on the Balance
  19. Ostrom
    1. Three problems that hinder cooperation, all caused or exacerbated by anarchy:
      1. Tragedy of the Commons
      2. Prisoners= Dilemma
      3. Collective Action Problems
    2. How can one fix these problems? (for future classes)
      1. hints: enforcement, communication, reciprocity, shadow of the future/concern for reputation.

    Jervis, Security Dilemma

    The dilemma: "An increase in one state's security decreases the security of others."

    Anarchy ---> Fears ---> Security dilemma

    Security dilemma is: [ My security = \ Your security

    Security dilemma ---> Arms Races, Security Spirals

    [ Offense Dominance ---> [ Arms Races, Security Spirals

    (and vice versa with defense dominance)

    [ Offense Dominance ---> [ Instability

    (and vice versa with defense dominance)

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    GOVT 324 Lecture 4:

    Strategies for dealing threats and enemies: aims, side-effects, and psychological influences.

  20. Walt and Balance of Threat
    1. Q. Where do friends and alliances come from?
    2. A. Balancing against threats.
      1. vs. bandwagoning
    3. Four components of (influences on) threat are:
      1. aggregate power
      2. geography
      3. offensive power
      4. intentions
    4. Note competing explanations and structure of argument
    5. Note policy implications
  21. Jervis, Deterrence and Spiral
    1. When threatened do you deter or appease?
      1. Deterrence
        1. capability
        2. resolve
        3. communication
      2. Costs of Deterrence = spirals
        1. security dilemma
      3. How to Choose?
  22. Jervis, Misperception
    1. How does psychology influence decision-making?
      1. Newtonian Psychology hypothesis
      2. pre-Copernican Psychology
      3. Bowling Shoe hypothesis
    2. How do these relate to other theories?
  23. Review of Realism
    1. The consequences of anarchy
    2. Focus on power and the possibility of war
    3. Influence of the distribution of capabilities on state behavior
  24. Questions for next section:
    1. How much anarchy is there? How can it be mitigated?
  25. Misc: Budget numbers...

    26. Jervis, Deterrence and Spiral Models

    Deterrence Model:

    [ Strength ---> Back Down (Prevent War)

    Spiral Model:

    [ Strength ---> Rear Up (Arms Races, Security Spirals)

    [ \89

     

     

    Reward

    Risk

    Deter

    (sometimes similar to balancing)

    Deterrence works: no war

    Backfires: leads to spiral, arms race, tension

    Appease (or despiral)

    (sometimes similar to bandwagoning)

    Appeasement works: no war

    Fails: whets appetite of aggressor, so not just war, but war against stronger adversary

    Continuum of non-balancing policies:

    Bandwagon <C> Appease <C> Despiral

    Continuum of balancing policies:

    Pre-empt <C> Misc. denial <C>Build up/Ally w\others

    Prisoner's Dilemma

    Prisoner # 1

    Silent Confess

     

    Silent

    Prisoner#2

    Confess

    -1

    -1

    -.25

    -15

    -15

    -.25

    -10

    -10

     

    Game highlights basic incentives to cheat given certain assumptions: bad guys that can not talk to each other. One shot iteration.

    CC= both silent, nailed on minor charge, both get 1 year in jail

    DC, CD=one confesses (rats), the other silent. Silent guy is major league evil, gets 15 years. Rat gets time served.

    DD=both rat, both pretty evil, both get 10 years.

    C=Cooperate

    D=Defect

     

     

    Fisherperson=s Dilemma

    Fisher # 1

    Cooperate Cheat

     

    Cooperate

    Fisher #2

    Cheat

    +5 +5

    +10

    -5

    -5

    +10

    -15

    -15

     

     

     

     

    Common Goods/Tragedy of the Commons Problem (CPRs common pooled resources)

    Prior to beginning of crisis, both were earning about $10/day. Then the common goods crisis hits, and both are down to $5/day. Figures in cells are changes from the $5/day

    CC: both gain and pre-crisis stasis is restored.

    CD, DC: One gaining twice and one losing from thinned fish

    DD: Both losing everything from no fish, having to use savings to look for job, etc.

    C=Cooperate

    D=Defect

     

    Also relevant: Stag Hunt

     

    Oye/Cooperation under Anarchy: An Attack on Realism

  26. Assumptions for Cooperation to be achieved
    1. It must be preferred (aha!)
      1. How to increase payoff of cooperation (CC)?
  27. The assumptions that drive states to defect:
    1. Lack of enforcement
    2. Lack of communication
    3. Irrelevance of reputation
    4. Lack of Time/One shot iteration
      1. Oye and The Shadow of the Future...
        1. Time and its effect on reciprocity and retaliation
          1. Can defection be recognized?
    5. Barriers to cooperation and number of actors
      1. buckpassing
  28. Cooperation: Security vs. Economics
    1. Lipson: Special peril of defection
    2. Stakes are huge in security
    3. Security issues often more zero sum
      1. Not always true...
    4. Security issues may be more one-shot and less influenced by reputation and time
      1. Not always true...
    5. Monitoring/transparency more difficult with security

    Govt 241: September 27, 2001

    Main Question for Keohane and Institutions: Where do institutions come from? How and why are they created?

  29. What is an Institution?
    1. A continuum from norms to organizations
  30. How and when are institutions formed?
    1. Hegemonic stability
    2. Crises
    3. New ideas
    4. Keohane and market failure
  31. Measuring regime effectiveness: are they causes or consequences of great power interests and actions?
      1. If GPs C> regimes, then do regimes C> GP interests/actions?
    1. 3 possible ways regimes affect behavior:
      1. Feedback (GP <C> Regime
      2. Intermediation GP C>RegimeC>Influence
      3. Lags/Gaps/Life of Own:

    GPC>

    Influence

    RegimeC>

     

  32. Interdependence: A Force for Peace?
    1. Independence vs. Interdependence vs. Dependence
      1. (autarky vs. sensitivity/efficiency vs. vulnerability)
    2. Effects of interdependence
        1. Increases costs of actions
        2. Incs sources of power & options for deals & compromises
  33. Ideas and IR
    1. Democratic Peace (Doyle)
    2. Obsolescence of war (Mueller)
    3. Post-modernism/Constructivism (Wendt)
    4. Feminism (Tickner +)
  34. Institutions and Ideas:
    1. Evolution and the possibility of progress
    2. Lindley=s Rotten Apple Theory

      3. Tilly: A Darwinian View of History

    3. Coercion/WarC>StateC>Coercion/War
    4. War = coercion works, leads to wealth and power. But ability to coerce and wage war is relative. WHAT THEORY?
    5. To coerce and make war, States created institutions (courts, treasuries, etc.) which gained lives of their own. WHAT THEORY?
    6. To compete, smaller municipalities and kingdoms banded together. WHAT THEORY?
    7. As army sizes grew, mercenary armies went from pillaging to more organized systems of supply and pay to keep them happy and fighting. WHAT FACTOR IS MISSING?
    8. In what areas of the world has war NOT made the state?
    9. What is state expenditure on war today?
    10. What does it say about changing morality and new norms if mercenaries are relatively rare today?
    11. What is the future if Tilly is right? What if history is a Darwinian evolution towards more efficient coercion serving the state? What of liberal democracy? What current and future threats need to be efficiently balanced against?
    12. What are the functions of states?
    13. Counter-arguments?
    14. Apply arguments to:
        1. US history...
        2. Other areas...
  35. World History, History of IR
    1. Many changes, many categories of change.
    2. Where have we come from and where are we going?
    3. Big themes:
      1. Change Happens, and sometimes quite fast and often now faster
      2. Which changes are good and which are bad?
      3. What kind of race are we in?
    4. World civilizations
      1. Are we (in) a civilization today?
    5. States and Great powers
        1. Who are the upcoming great powers? What are the dangers of power transitions?
        2. The future of the state?
          1. Globalization vs. Fractionating Nationalism
    6. Imperialism/Colonialism
      1. Why did it happen? Why did it end?
      2. Are today=s rich GP=s neo-imperialists?
    7. Nationalism
      1. A force for good or ill?

       

       

       

       

    8. World Economy
          1. What are overall economic trends?
          2. $=power; SO Who dominates and with what effect?
          3. What are effects of economic changes and turbulence?
          4. Development: How?
  36. What categories did Goldstein skip or play down?
    1. Health
      1. Population explosion
      2. Lifespan/Old age explosion
      3. Few plagues left...Maybe
    2. Welfare state
      1. What is the function of the state? What do they do for you and where is your allegiance?
    3. Human rights and norms
      1. Slavery
      2. Group vs. individual rights
        1. Sovereignty vs. human rights
    4. Globalization
      1. What are the effects of Interdependence, MNCs? Telecoms? Internet? Of NGOs and IGOs? Trading blocs and free trade zones? What new world is emerging and what are the costs and benefits?
      2. Race to bottom? Or greater opportunity and wealth for all?
    5. Lethality
        1. Wars over time
          1. civil wars
        2. Technological
          1. kill rates
          2. nuclear history
          3. Cold War comparison
        3. Rules/norms of war
          1. Civilians at risk
          2. Rape
          3. Terrorism
    6. Ruling ideologies
        1. What are prevailing standards?
          1. Has history evolved and are ideas important?
        2. Is history over?
    7. Environment
        1. Sanitation
        2. Industrial Pollution
        3. Consumer/auto pollution
        4. Global commons