POLS 241 F03, slides for the second half of the semester.

POLS 241: World War I, October 7, 2003


1.         Overview: Who cares about WWI?

2.         Why did the war start? (and do these conditions exist today?)

            a.         Tight alliances/rigid mobilization schedules

                        i.         dragged into war that cannot be stopped

            b.         Nationalism

                        i.         Social Darwinism

                                    (1)       war=good

            c.         Imperialism;

                        i.         led to competition and crises

            d.         Militarism

                        i.         war=useful

            e.         Perceived offense dominance

                        i.         war=easy & necessary

            f.         Shifting power

                        i.         deterrence harder, testing more frequent


3.         Lead up to war

            a.         July Crisis


4.         How was it fought?

            a.         Defense dominance

                        i.         Optimistic Miscalculation....a frequent COW


5.         How did it end and how did it shape IR?

            a.         Who is up and who is down?

            b.         What ideas are up and which are down?

            c.         League of Nations

            d.         Seeds sown for WWII?


POLS 241: Causes of War


1.         Review causes of war (a-f from WWI)

            a.         Nationalism

                        i.         Social Darwinism

                                    (1)       war=good

            b.         Imperialism;

                        i.         led to competition and crises

                                    (1)       zero-sum

            c.         Militarism

                        i.         war=useful; only tool in tool box

            d.         Perceived offense dominance

                        i.         war=easy & necessary

            e.         Shifting power

                        i.         windows of opportunity

                        ii.        preventive wars (relative gains concerns heightened)

                        iii.       deterrence harder, testing more frequent

            f.         Tight alliances/rigid mobilization schedules

                        i.         dragged into war that cannot be stopped

                                    (1)       chainganging


            g.         Add other causes of war

                        i.         Territory disputes

                                    (1)       Resources

                                    (2)       Identity (+glory, etc.)

                                                (a)       Irridentism

                                                            (i)        Worse if have (former) nationals in that territory

                                                (b)       Ethnic cleansing is often about territory


                        ii.        Identity/Ethnic/internal conflict (more later, but...)

                                    (1)       Who rules?

                                    (2)       ID conflict

                                                (a)       ingroup and outgroup

                                                            (i)        fundamentalism/relig self-righteousness

                                                            (ii)       ideo confilct (often a figleaf)

                        iii.       Scapegoating

                                    (1)       a bit true in WWII

                                    (2)       oft true in ethnic conflict

                                                (a)       But can a weak country fight well?


                        iv.       Some big debates on causes of war:

                                    (1)       Is war an accident or irrational (based on misperceptions, events that get out of control, etc)? Or is war a rational choice arising from conflicts of interests?

                                    (2)       Is war ever just?

                                                (a)       If not, that is pacifism.

                                    (3)       Levels of analysis and causes of war


            h.         War prediction table


2.         Schelling: Diplomacy of Violence

            a.         What is the political purpose of force?

                        i.         When is force political and when is it not?

            b.         Victory as a prereq for coercion?

            c.         Role of nuclear weapons and politics of war

3.         Art: Four Functions of Force

            a.         Defense

            b.         Deterrence

            c.         Compellent

            d.         Swagger

4.         Big Themes about Force

            a.         Is force still useful?

            b.         What good are nuclear weapons?


POLS 241: WMD, War, and Terrorism


1.         Questions:

            a.         What are WMD?

            b.         How serious are WMD Threats?

                        i.         Proliferation

                        ii.        Terrorism

            c.         How to manage WMD threats?


1.         WMD - What they are and what they do

            a.         Nuclear weapons

                        i.         Sort of hard to make (tech easy, materials hard), easy to deliver, Huge effects

            b.         Biological weapons

                        i.         Pretty easy to make, maybe hard to deliver, Huge effects

            c.         Chemical weapons

                        i.         easiest to make, maybe hard to deliver, relatively minor effects (a real WMD?)

            d.         Aum Shinrikyo as case study


            e.         Overall characteristics: lethality, portability, and fair accessibility (+speed for some) = offense dominance, hard to defend against


            f.         Overall effects: bad, yes bad. Very bad.


            g.         Plain old conventional terrorism: can be very bad too.


2.         WMD Threats

            a.         War

                        i.         Nuclear war with Russia? China?

                        ii.        War between others? India/Pak? MidEast?

                        iii.       Bio/Chem war?

                                    (1)       Is there a taboo?


            b.         Accidents/Inadvertent war


            c.         Proliferation of WMD

                        i.         Incentives to proliferate

                        ii.        Means of proliferation

                                    (1)       “Traditional”

                                    (2)       Loose Nukes, state “sharing”

                        iii.       Case study: North Korea

                                    (1)       Capabilities and Intentions

                                    (2)       1994 Agreed Framework...

                        iv.       Theories about Proliferation: Sagan-Waltz debate


            d.         Terrorism

                        i.         Old Conventional Wisdom: mass terror is unlikely

                                    (1)       Despite this, many NEST deployments

                        ii.        New 9/11 CW: will stop at nothing

                                    (1)       + Global WMD proliferation = BAD

                        iii.       Bin Laden and Al Qaeda

                        iv.       Loose Nukes and nuclear materials trafficking

                                    (1)       Other capabilities issues re WMD terrorism...

                        v.         WMD Terrorism: what hasn’t happened....

                        vi.       Conventional Terrorism: what hasn’t happened....

3.         Managing the Problems/WMD Solutions


            a.         Arms Control

                        i.         Basic Goals

                                    (1)       Lessen risk of war

                                    (2)       Lessen death/damage in war

                                    (3)       Reduce spending on weapons

                        ii.        Other effects:

                                    (1)       Rules of the road/Predictability

                                    (2)       A norm with which to punish and browbeat

                                    (3)       Talk and communications

                                    (4)       Transparency

                                    (5)       Attention/awareness

                                    (6)       Maybe moving to a rules-based world...

                        iii.       Critiques:

                                    (1)       Is a smokescreen?

                                    (2)       A false comfort?

                                    (3)       Limits the US?

                        iv.       Lindley: Beats nothing, more good than harm

                        v.         Hinder Proliferation

                        vi.       Help responses to proliferation

            b.         Nunn Lugar

            c.         Better Worldwide Coordination ranging from Policing, to Intel to Banking Info

            d.         Using Sanctions and Other Instruments to Punish and Coerce Proliferators and Terrorist Sponsors

            e.         Humanitarian Aid/Marshall Plan for Critical Areas

                                    (1)       Failed States and New Links to Domestic Security

            f.         Promoting Energy Conservation and Oil Exploration to Reduce Persian Gulf Oil Dependence;

            g.         Promoting the Growth of Middle Classes Throughout the Middle East (values, transparency, etc will follow)

            h.         Using Information Campaigns and Policy Adjustments to Reduce Enmity Toward the U.S. and the West;

            i.         Fostering Israeli/Palestinian Peace.

            j.         Homeland Security

                        i.         Domestic preparedness

                        ii.        Civil Defense

                        iii.       Civil Liberties

            k.         Defenses: NMD

                        i.         Pros/Cons

                        ii.        Cold War vs post-Cold War

            l.         Deterrence

                        i.         Some problems w/ WMD and terrorism...

            m.       Cost Issues: We can afford anything we want


4.         Summary Themes....

5.         Utility of Military Force

            a.         Very useful: Osiraq, Gulf War, Afghanistan

            b.         Partial Myths about Force

                        i.         Doesn’t solve problems

                        ii.        Creates more problems


            c.         Iraq: What is the Threat and What Should We Do?

                        i.         Very Bad Behavior:

                                    (1)       started two wars that killed 1.3++ million people,

                                    (2)       massive WMD programs which he prefers to protect rather than end sanctions, used WMD on own people,

                                                (a)       Repeated lied to and abused UN inspectors

                                    (3)       rejected oil for food for five years,


6.         USFP and Terrorism

            a.         Realization of how bad things are

            b.         Catalyst for change?


7.         Concluding Points

            a.         Lucky to be fighting this war now

            b.         We should be really scared





POLS 241: Ethnic Conflict


1.         What is it and who cares?

            a.         Death

            b.         Refugees

            c.         Spill-in/Spill-out

            d.         GPs

            e.         IOs


2.         What Causes It?

            a.         Ancient Hatreds?

            b.         Underlying vs. Proximate Causes

            c.         Why more now?

            d.         Anarchy, but within states

            e.         Brown’s punchline


3.         How to reduce/prevent/ameliorate ethnic conflict?

            a.         Peacekeeping operations (when, at what cost?)

                        i.         Peacekeeping vs Peace enforcement vs Multi-dimensional operations

                                    (1)       Peace to keep, Impartiality, Consent, Level of Force, Nation-building/elections

                        ii.        Betts: why fighting? Who rules?

            b.         Democratization (backfires? preconditions?)

            c.         Development (how?)

            d.         Sanctions (vs. Constructive Engagement)?

            e.         Partition (vs. Sovereignty)



POLS 241: Cyprus: Peacekeeping and Ethnic conflict


1.         History and Background: Colonial Legacy

2.         Constitutional design puzzle: how to protect minorities when they need it most and still make government work

3.         Anarchy, the security dilemma, offense dominance, and ethnic conflict

4.         Peacekeeping and ethnic conflict

            a.         Pre-1974

            b.         Post-1974

                        i.         Operational Definition of Consent

                        ii.        Roulette Wheel analogy

5.         Identity, Propaganda, and ethnic conflict

6.         Role of external powers

            a.         balance of power

            b.         Greece

            c.         Turkey

            d.         US

            e.         Britain

            f.         NATO

            g.         UN

            h.         EU



1.         Traditional Peacekeeping: The Golan Heights

            a.         History

            b.         Functions


1.         Transparency and multifunctional operations

If one excludes the number of deaths in several major wars in which Western states

fought or intervened in Third World nations, such as the Korean War, France in Indochina and

Algeria, and the United States in Indochina, one sees that the next significant group might be

called “the great domestic slaughters.” Between 1955 and 2000, 13 out of 19 of these events took

place in Africa (see table below).

Table 1

War-Related Deaths, 1955 – 2000, Selected Countries

Country Years Estimated Deaths

Sudan 1955–1972 750,000

Indonesia 1965 ca. 400,000–450,000

Nigeria/Biafra 1967–1970 1 million civilian plus 1 million military

Bangladesh/East Pakistan 1971 1 million civilian plus 500,000 military

Uganda [Idi Amin] 1971–1978 ca. 300,000

Burundi 1972 ca. 250,000

Indonesia/East Timor 1975–1980 ca 100,000 (out of a population of 2 million)

Cambodia/Khmer Rouge 1975–1978 ca. 2 million, of which ca. 90,000 murdered

Angola 1980–1988 ca. 700,000

Mozambique 1980–1988 ca. 1 million (1989 UN figure was 900,000)

Uganda [Obote] 1981–1985 ca. 300,000

Sudan 1983–2000 2 million (as of April 2001)

Iraq/Kurds first half 1988 ca. 100,000 killed in a pure WWII Nazi mobile unit-style extermination campaign

            (Since 1970, had destroyed 3,000 Kurdish villages and displaced 1.5 million Kurds.)

Somalia 1991–1992 350,000 died due to starvation and warfare; 1.5 million refugees

Bosnia/Yugoslavia 1992–1995 ca. 200,000

Angola 1993–1994 over 100,000. In September 1994, a UN Secretary General’s Report quoted a “death

rate” of 1,000/day, or over 300,000/year, “the highest of any conflict in the world.” Two million refugees.

Burundi October 1993 ca. 200,000

Rwanda 1994 800,000; 4 million refugees (In December 2001 the Rwandan government reported this

            number to have been 1.07 million.)

Zaire/Congo 1997–April 2003 1.75 million (Between 3.3 and 4.7 million have been killed or died of starvation due to fighting in the Congo in the time span indicated: only a portion of that sum is counted here to remain within “the 20th Century.”)

TOTAL DEATHS Approximately 15 million


campaigns” were published in the post-Mao period after 1977, in nearly all instances by the

Chinese government:

C 1949–54 land reform movement 4,500,000 (civilians)

C 1949–54 “suppression of counterrevolutionaries” 3,000,000 (civilians)

C 1959 “Anti-Rightists” campaign approx. 900,000 (civilians)

C 1959–61 Great Leap Forward/starvation 30 million (civilians)

C 1965–75 “Cultural Revolution” 1,613,000 civilians 537,000 military, totalling: 2,150,000

additional deaths in labor camps during Cultural Revolution 6,000,000







Overview of IPE Topics

2.         Why Important?

3.         Fundamentals of Trade

            a.         Supply and Demand, Invisible Hand, Comparative Advantage

            b.         Market Imperfections

            c.         Balance of Trade

4.         Fundamentals of Finance

            a.         Balance of Payments

            b.         Exchange Rates

5.         Productivity, Competitiveness, and Wages

6.         Trade Strategies

            a.         Liberalism (free trade)

            b.         Protectionism (biased trade)

            c.         Mercantilism (exploitive trade)

            d.         Autarky (no trade/all extraction)

7.         Trade Regimes and Institutions

            a.         WTO

            b.         FTAs

            c.         EU

            d.         Bretton Woods: World Bank and IMF

8.         Misc IPE Phenomena

            a.         Multinational Corporations (MNCs) and their impacts

            b.         Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

9.         Globalization

            a.         Less transaction costs

            b.         Big Picture: Full Range of Issues

10.       Development: The Problem

            a.         What to do?

                        i.         Preconditions for Development

                        ii.        Aid

11.       General/Misc IPE Issues

            a.         De-communization (end of command economies)

            b.         Intellectual Property Rights

12.       Specific Readings and Issues

            a.         Asian Financial Crisis

            b.         Globalization

POLS 241 IPE December 10, 2003

1.         Why Important?

            a.         War, Peace, Poverty

            b.         Who wins and who loses?

            c.         Fate of the sovereign state?

2.         Fundamentals of Trade

            a.         Supply and Demand,

                        i.         Adam Smith and the Invisible Hand

                                    (1)       Supply and Demand = Good

                                                (a)       Preconditions for competition:

                                                            (i)        multiple suppliers

                                                            (ii)       good information to consumers

                        ii.        David Ricardo and Comparative Advantage

                                    (1)       Trade = Good

                                                (a)       Market Imperfections

                                                            (i)        taxes

                                                            (ii)       regulations

                                                            (iii)      tariffs

                                                            (iv)      sanctions

            b.         Balance of Trade

3.         Fundamentals of Finance

            a.         Balance of Payments

            b.         Exchange Rates

                        i.         Gold standard vs. Free floating rates

4.         Productivity, Competitiveness, and Wages

5.         Trade Strategies

            a.         Liberalism (free trade)

            b.         Protectionism (biased trade)

            c.         Mercantilism (exploitive trade)

            d.         Autarky (no trade/all extraction


6.         Trade Regimes and Institutions

            a.         WTO

            b.         FTAs

            c.         EU

            d.         Bretton Woods: World Bank and IMF

7.         Misc IPE Phenomena

            a.         MNCs

            b.         FDI

8.         Globalization

            a.         Less transaction costs

            b.         Big Picture: Full Range of Issues

                        i.         Information, health, culture, sovereignty, WMD...

9.         Development

            a.         The Problem

            b.         What to do?

                        i.         Preconditions for Development

                        ii.        Aid

10.       Specific Readings and Issues

            a.         Asian Financial Crisis

                        i.         Liquidity Crisis

                                    (1)       a bit like US depression

                        ii.        Currency down>interest rates up>growth prospects down>stocks down>liquidity down>bankruptcies up.

                                    (1)       All aggravated by myths, fears, and spirals.



            b.         Globalization

                        i.         Kearney

                        ii.        Krugman: don’t buy the hype

                        iii.       Rodrik



Dan Lindley

Fundamentals of International Trade and Finance

v. .06 early edition; November 25, 2000


Fundamentals of Trade


Supply and Demand determine price. As supply goes up, price goes down. As demand goes up, price goes up (if supply remains constant).


Increased prices imply higher profits. Higher profits generally motivate other competitors to provide the same good. Supply goes up, prices go down. If prices go down enough, competitors will go out of business, and supply will go down. Prices will begin to rise. In the end, there tends to be enough supply, and enough suppliers, to meet demand at prices that guarantee some but not overly high profits. This magical equilibrium is Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand (invisible hands are one reason economists are famous for and can get away with saying “on the one hand...).


This equilibrium is the cornerstone of faith in liberal economics. Liberal in economics means belief in free trade and unregulated markets.


Natural equilibrium of markets depends on two core assumptions. The first is that there are multiple suppliers. Lack of multiple suppliers erodes competition, raises prices, reduces efficiency, and is called oligopoly or monopoly. The second is that consumers have good information and can make informed decisions about products. Competition wouldn’t work if you didn’t know the same thing was available for cheaper around the corner.


Why is trade beneficial?


            David Ricardo's Comparative Advantage: Comparative advantage works when goods are produced by the parties that will trade with different rates of productivity. This means that one party has a comparative advantage in producing one good, while another party can better produce another good. Here is an example:


1.         I make 2 bottles of wine or 1 cork per unit of labor

2.         You make 2 corks or 1 bottle of wine per unit of labor

3.         Thus we can make 2 corked bottles each for 4 units of labor each.

4.         BUT, if you make 6 corks and I make 6 bottles for 3 units of labor respectively, and IF we trade, then we can each end up with 3 corked bottles for the same labor. No trade: 2 bottles each. Trade: 3 bottles each.

5.         Trade essentially expands our production-possibility frontier


6.         Note that when trade is possible, it is never worth my time to make corks, and not worth your time to make wine. We Specialize. We become interdependent.


Here is a neat comparative advantage trick: it can be worth my while to trade, even if I make both things better, if the price is right:

1.         I make 2 bottles of wine or 3 corks per unit of labor, but wine sells for 2 dollars and corks for .50. Per unit of labor I can make 4 dollars or 1.5 depending on what I produce.

2.         You make 2 corks per unit of labor and no wine. You can earn 1.00 per unit of labor. (ie you're the poor inefficient country, I'm the rich productive one - sorry)

3.         A corked bottle of wine sells for 2.50. With five units of labor and without trade, I can make 6 bottles worth 15.00 (3 lab units to make 6 bottles; 2 units for 6 corks). You can make 10 corks worth 5.00.

4.         If I make only wine, and no corks, I can make 10 wines worth 20.00 for the same five units of labor. But I have no corks. Invent trade. Let me exchange 2 bottles for 8 corks (with equal values of 4.00). I now have 8 corked bottles worth 20.00 (instead of 15.00), for the same 5 units of labor. Meanwhile, you now have 2 corked bottles of wine (worth 5.00). I make $5, you at least have useable bottled wine... You could probably raise the price of corks and we'd still profit.


This sounds weird, but it helps explain a number of things: why economically advanced countries may no longer want to produce lower value items (textiles), why rich countries get richer (sometimes), and why attorneys might hire a secretary even if they can type faster than the secretary (they can earn more lawyerizing). Most importantly, this is the fundamental argument for free trade.



Market Imperfections


            In addition to insufficient competition and incomplete or imperfect information, other market imperfections include: taxes, tariffs, regulations, quotas, sanctions, and so forth. These are “imperfections” because they affect the price of goods. “Imperfections” like taxes or environmental regulations may provide public goods. The cost of these goods are higher prices and perhaps reduced competitiveness.


Fundamentals of Finance


            Finance is about the price of money. Money does have a price. The price for money varies, in part because the supply and demand for money also vary. The price of money is expressed in interest and currency exchange rates. Other facets of finance are the sources of investment capital (such as international banks, the IMF, the World Bank, aid, stock markets, and private investors) and the flow of capital (international currency traders, exports, imports, and investment flows).


Below are some basic elements of finance: balance of trade, balance of payments accounts, and currency exchange rates.


Balance of trade is the balance between exports and imports of goods and services. If you export the same value of each, there is a perfect trade balance. If you import more than you export, there is a trade deficit because you are exporting more dollars than you are importing. Where do those dollars come from? How can you get them back?

















Balance of payments accounts is balance of the total amount of dollars flowing into and out of the country. This adds to the exchange of good sand services to include: investment flows, purchases of government bonds by foreign investors (and vice versa), and tourist dollars (see table 9.2 from Goldstein, 5th ed. p. 409 which adds these finance aspects to the basic trade balance). This is part of the answer to the questions in the last paragraph. The other great equalizer, and hidden hand, in the finance department is currency exchange rates.




POLS 241: Environment and Resources


1.         Big Questions:

            a.         What is extent of the problem(s)?

                        i.         Drivers: population + development

            b.         What can we do about it?

                        i.         Stop development? Stop population growth? Increase development?


2.         Overview of some problems

            a.         Pollution

            b.         Biodiversity

            c.         Resources

            d.         Patterns discerned and some lessons learned


3.         Points of View/Overall Approaches to Problems

            a.         Malthusian

            b.         Classical Economics

            c.         Values/Morals

            d.         Organizational


4.         Solutions

            a.         Theories/concepts

                        i.         Tragedy of the Commons

                        ii.        Collective Action Theory

                                    (1)       Balance of Threat

                        iii.       Hegemonic leadership, but...

                                    (1)       veto power by most powerful, but...

                                                (a)       WTO-like problems –> Env. regulations tend to help the rich

            b.         Some Actual Solutions

                        i.         Montreal Protocol

                                    (1)       history and lessons learned

                        ii.        Kyoto Protocol

                                    (1)       history and lessons learned


5.         Questions for future

            a.         Development and growth: a threat? A hope? Both?

            b.         Are we heading towards tipping points?





POLS 241: International Institutions

Security Institutions: Progress toward Collective Security?

1.         Collective Security vs. Balance of Threat

            a.         Definition of CS (vs. alliances)

2.         Pre-reqs for CS:

            a.         Indivisible threat

                        i.         shared and enough to solve CAPs

                        ii.        future vs. real, distant vs. proximate, other alliances/friendships superceded

            b.         Projection forces

                        i.         diffuse power (vs. hegemonic/GP leadership)

            c.         Universal membership

                        i.         free riding vs. CAPs

            d.         Definition of aggression

                        i.         assumes ability to agree

                        ii.        simple rules help, favoring sovty and status quo

                                    (1)        (Chechnya?)

3.         Concert of Europe

            a.         Origins/Purpose

            b.         Events

            c.         Lessons

4.         League of Nations

            a.         Origins/Purpose

            b.         Events

            c.         Lessons

5.         U.N.

            a.         Origins/Purpose

            b.         Events

            c.         Lessons

International Organizations Continued...

            a.         U.N. Lessons

                        i.         Depends on great power consensus

                                    (1)       compare to Cold War gridlock

                        ii.        Trend toward needing ‘blessing’

            b.         Other U.N. functions

                        i.         IAEA (and NPT)

                        ii.        ECOSOC

                        iii.       UNDP

                        iv.       UNICEF

                        v.         UNHCR

1.         Economic Organizations

            a.         Trade

                        i.         GATT

                        ii.        WTO

            b.         Regional Trading Blocs

                        i.         EU

                        ii.        ASEAN

                        iii.       NAFTA

            c.         Lending

                        i.         IMF

                        ii.        World Bank

2.         General IO Themes:

            a.         War is a catalyst

                        i.         but organizations often formed to reduce causes of previous problems

            b.         Heg leadership and/or consensus marks periods of formation and/or success

            c.         Insts, both security and economic, have gotten more complex and powerful over time. Often intertwined.




POLS 241: International Law and Ethics

1.         International Law

            a.         Formal

                        i.         Treaties: bilateral, multilateral, (near) universal

                        ii.        ICJ

                        iii.       UN

            b.         Customary

2.         Ethics

            a.         Just War

            b.         Necessity and Proportionality

            c.         Pre-emptive vs. Preventive war

            d.         Current Debates and Trends:

                        i.         Humanitarian intervention and changing sovereignty

                        ii.        Human rights

                        iii.       War Crimes

                                    (1)       Tribunals

                                    (2)       Peace vs. Justice; forgive and forget vs. punish

            e.         (some) Issues to discuss:

                        i.         Iraq

                        ii.        Chechnya

                        iii.       Rwanda

                        iv.       Sudan

                        v.         Sweatshops and other labor issues

                        vi.       Environment

3.         Lessons:

            a.         Norms can change, and change fairly rapidly

                        i.         So can institutions that embody norms

            b.         But, under what conditions?

            c.         What causes progress and what could cause reversals?





Core Questions and Arguments of Course:


1.         How vicious is anarchy and how can it be tamed?


2.         To what extent and why is world globalizing and/or fragmenting? With what effects?


3.         Both threats and solutions/remedies seem to be multiplying or growing at ever faster rates.

            a.         Solutions may be ‘evolved towards’ or catalyzed by disasters and big events.

            b.         Magnitude of solutions must, I think, match magnitude of problems.


4.         So, we live in interesting times that may be characterized as a race of solutions against problems.


5.         Reality is likely to be lumpy and weird, marked by fits and starts, progress and regression, disaster and relief.


6.         In weird and fast times, analytical skills are key.

            a.         You must be able to dissect and construct arguments.


The Future of War: Mearsheimer vs. Van Evera


1.         Mearsheimer

            a.         What explains peace of Cold War?

            b.         Why war is now more likely

            c.         Prescriptions

            d.         Why other prescriptions are wrong


2.         Van Evera

            a.         Why war is now less likely

            b.         Why other forecasts are wrong

            c.         What might go wrong?

            d.         Prescriptions


3.         Questions and Issues

            a.         How much do security concerns drive foreign policy?

                        i.         How vicious is anarchy?

                        ii.        Under what conditions?

            b.         Where do Mearsheimer and Van Evera agree?

            c.         What do these arguments tell us about the rest of the world?

Huntington: Clash of Civilizations


1.         Main Argument: future conflicts will mostly be between civilizations


2.         What is a civilization?

            a.         The largest ID group short of all humanity

            b.         Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic Orthodox, Latin American, and maybe African


3.         Why will Civs clash?


4.         Where are the fault lines?


5.         West vs. the Rest


6.         Torn Countries


7.         Conclusions

POLS 241: War Prediction Table

Factor Present Today?


Elsewhere? Footnote


Rapidly shifting power?




Arms races?




All/Nothing mobilization?




Offense dominance? (real and/or perceived)




Tight alliances?




Aggressive leadership?








Malignant nationalism?




Identity/Ethnic issues?




Contested territory?




Ethnic bretheren abroad?




State backed into corner?




Historical grievances?




Malignant historical lessons and analogies?




Severe Misperceptions?




Societal/Economic turmoil?








Always Assess:


Useable Capability?




Credible Intentions?





Key: the more boxes you check, the more likely war becomes. Repeat exercise often to avoid surprise.