Class Number & Date	Subject	DUE
Class 1, 16	Introduction
Class 2, 1/18	Overview of USFP
Class 3, 1/23	Theoretical Concepts
Class 4, 1/25	Theoretical Concepts
Class 5, 1/30	Theoretical Concepts
Class 6, 2/1	The Policy Process and the Cuban Missile Crisis
Class 7, 2/6	The Policy Process and the Cuban Missile Crisis
Class 8, 2/8	The Policy Process and the Cuban Missile Crisis
Class 9, 2/13	The Policy Process and the Cuban Missile Crisis
Class 10, 2/15	Midterm Review
Class 11, 2/20	Midterm	MIDTERM
Class 12, 2/22	USFP History to World War I (WWI)
Class 13, 2/27	World War I and World War II
Class 14, 3/1	World War I and World War II
Class 15, 3/6	Cold War	FIRST PAPER
Class 16, 3/8	Cold War <SB>
Class 17, 3/20	Vietnam War
Class 18, 3/22	Gulf War with emphasis on the role of the media
Class 19, 3/27	Gulf War with emphasis on the role of the media
Class 20, 3/29	Resources and the Environment
Class 21, 4/3	Economics: Trade, Aid, Development, Globalization
Class 22, 4/5	Economics: Trade, Aid, Development, Globalization <EB>
Class 23, 4/10	WMD, Terrorism, Proliferation, and Arms Control
Class 24, 4/12	WMD, Terrorism, Proliferation, and Arms Control
Class 25, 4/17	WMD, Terrorism, Proliferation, and Arms Control	SECOND PAPER
Class 26, 4/19	Ethnic Conflict, Humanitarian Intervention, and Peacekeeping
Class 27, 4/24	Ethnic Conflict, Humanitarian Intervention, and Peacekeeping
Class 28, 4/26	The Future and What We Should Do About It
Class 29, 5/1	The Future and What We Should Do About It
THURSDAY MAY 10	10:30-12:30	FINAL EXAM

Part I: Introduction; Theoretical Concepts and Policy Process

 

Class 1: Introduction

 

Welcome to USFP! Introduce Professor and TAs. Review syllabus. Overview of themes of course. Start overview of USFP.

 

Class 2: Overview of USFP

 

What is a foreign policy? Does the U.S. have a foreign policy? What is important in the world? How can the U.S. promote its interests and/or improve the quality of life for its citizens and other people?

 

Readings (88 pages)

 

¨        President George Bush, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, D.C.: The White House, March 2006). [51, in packet] This is the master strategy for U.S. foreign policy. It appears that we do have a foreign policy. What do you think? If you were spying on the U.S., what would you be able to tell your bosses after reading this document?

 

¨        “New World Coming: American Security in the 21^st Century: Major Themes and Implications” U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century. [9, in packet] Note the first conclusion. These folks have received good press for being so prescient. Many of these sorts of reports were ignored until 9/11/01. Why? Human Nature? Bureaucratic politics? Wishful thinking? Any reasons that can be fixed? More reports by this Blue Ribbon commission at: http://www.fas.org/man/docs/nwc/

 

¨        National Intelligence Council, CIA, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts, NIC-2000-02, December 2000, pp. 5-18. [13, in packet] An amazingly comprehensive survey of future problems ranging from economic to environmental to security. To read the black and white graphs, the order of the lines in the box is the order of the lines in the graph on the right side of the Y axis. This is the last reading in the packet. For the full color version, check out: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/globaltrends2015.pdf

 

¨        The World Almanac and Book of Facts, 2006, (New York, NY: World Almanac Education Group, Inc 2006) pp. 72, 74, 75, 77, 105-107, 112. 854 [9, in packet] John W. Wright, The New York Times Almanac, 1998 (New York, NY: New York Times, 1997), pp. 140-141; 151; 292-293. [5, in packet] What is important to the U.S.? Who else can threaten the U.S.? It is always wise to start with the basics. The basics are economic and military power. Here are rankings on gross domestic product, military strength, imports, etc.

¨        “Emerging-market indicators,” The Economist, Vol. 380, No. 8484 (July 1^st, 2006) pp. 90 [1, in packet]

 

 

Classes 3, 4, 5: Theoretical Concepts

 

Here we review some theories which help us analyze USFP. We will also discuss methodology in the social sciences. How do we know what we know? How can we make arguments when the data are not always clear?

 

Some of these articles and arguments should be familiar from your intro IR Classes...

 

We cover some systemic influences on foreign policy such as the security dilemma and balance of threat theory; some cognitive and decision-making theories, as well as collective action problems, two-level games, culture, and racism.

 

Readings (214 pages)

 

¨        Robert Jervis, "Offense, Defense, and the Security Dilemma," in Robert J. Art and Robert Jervis, International Politics, 3^rd ed. (New York, 1992), pp. 146-169. [24, in packet] Why do states fear each other? How do arms races arise? What can be done to temper the corrosive effects of anarchy?

 

¨        Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976), pp. 58-84. [27, in packet] Carrots and Sticks are the two main policy instruments. When should a state use carrots to despiral or sticks to deter? A bad choice can be disastrous. This reading about spirals suggests some conditions under which it is wise to pick carrots, and others when it is wise to pick sticks. Are carrots and sticks mutually exclusive? (carrots may also be used to induce and sticks used to coerce).

 

¨        Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1987), pp. 17-49; 274-285. [45, in packet] A central question facing policy makers is: Why do states make or end up with certain friends and enemies? Walt's writings offer many candidate explanations, all of which hold some water. But he prefers balance of threat theory. His conclusion offers some interesting insights about U.S. Cold War policy. How would you write the conclusion for today's post-Cold War world?

 

¨        Robert Jervis, "Hypotheses on Misperception," in G. John Ikenberry, ed., American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays (Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman, and Co. 1989), pp. 461-482. [22, in packet] Plus: Meg Greenfield, "They Won't...They Can't..." Newsweek, June 1 1997, p. 78; and Tim Weiner, "Naivete at the CIA: Every Nation's Just Another U.S." New York Times, June 7, 1998. [2, in packet] The above Jervis readings suggest that some policies may have unintended consequences. This Jervis piece suggests that policy makers may be inherently prone to misperception. Uh Oh. Jervis outlines fourteen hypotheses here; if you boil them down to their essence, how many remain? The Greenfield and Weiner articles dramatically illustrate the relevance of the Jervis piece. Jervis should be required reading at the CIA. Students: do the country a favor -- read the Jervis piece and get a job in Washington.

 

¨        Irving Janis, “Escalation of the Vietnam War: How Could It Happen?” in G. John Ikenberry, ed., American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays, 3 ed. (New York, NY: Addison-Wesley, 1999), pp. 533-560 [27, in packet] Welcome to Groupthink. As with many other theories, be aware of this one in your professional and personal lives.

 

¨        Elinor Ostrom, Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1990), pp. 1-7 [7, in packet] A short but important reading that is particularly relevant to environmental and alliance issues.

 

¨        Robert D. Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games,” in Peter B. Evans, Harold K. Jacobson, and Robert D. Putnam, eds., Double-Edged Diplomacy: International Bargaining and Domestic Politics (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1993), pp. 431-468 [30, in packet]

 

¨        Essays in Merrill, Dennis, J. and Thomas G. Paterson, Major Problems in American Foreign Policy Volume II: Since 1914, 6 ed. (Houghton Mifflin, 2005), pp. 1-30 [30] (hereafter Merrill and Paterson, Major Problems). These cover a host of FP influences from culture to racism.

 

 

 

Classes 6, 7, 8, 11: The Policy Process and the Cuban Missile Crisis

 

Here, I will review the policy process in the first day or two of lecture while you plunge ahead into the readings. I will sketch out who the various actors (President, Congress, etc.) are, what their legal rights and powers are, and what their powers are in reality. Think about Allison's models as I discuss the actors. Who or what sets the policy agenda? How are decisions made? And once decisions are made, how well are they executed? Can you apply insights from this segment of the course to jobs you have had (or will have)?

 

Readings [482 pages]

 

¨        Thomas G. Paterson, J. Garry Clifford, Shane J. Maddock, Deborah Kisatsky, and Kenneth J. Hagan, American Foreign Relations, A History Since 1895, Vol. 2, 6 ed. (Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath and Co, 2005), pp. 337-342 [4] (Hereafter: Paterson, Clifford, Maddock, Kisatsky, and Hagan, American Foreign Relations). Start with this for a big-picture summary history that will help you understand the details in Allison.

 

¨        Merrill and Paterson, Major Problems, chapter on the Cuban Missile Crisis (10), pp. 367-412 [55]

 

¨        Allison, Graham, and Zelikow, Philip, Essence of Decision : Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2 ed., (New York, NY: Addison-Wesley, 1999), 3 segments: pp. 1-142, pp. 143-254, pp. 255-407. The book is the best extant illustration of how theories work as lenses. Imagine each theory to be a lens and note how different facts come into focus with each theory. Don't worry about the minutiae of each model as you first read it; just grasp the big picture (lecture will help with this, because minutiae will be helpful for you for the midterm, etc.). The Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest the U.S. and Soviet Union came to nuclear war.

 

¨        Robert Kaiser and Steven Mufson, “‘Blue Team’ Draws a Hard Line on Beijing,” Washington Post, February 22, 2000 [6, in packet]. An inside look at some of the forces shaping foreign policy. Is this sinister and conspiratorial? Or just the way a democracy works? What other causes receive similar support? Are there lines which should not be crossed? If so, where and how would you draw it?

 

¨        FP Roundtable “The War over Israel’s Influence” Foreign Policy, No 155 (July/August 2006) pp. 57-66 [10, in packet]

 

 

 

Class 9: MIDTERM REVIEW

 

Class 10: MIDTERM

 

 

Part II: History of USFP

 

 

Class 12: USFP History to World War I (WWI)

 

Here we begin to look at the history of USFP in the hopes that knowing our past will help us analyze the present and predict the future. As I said above: "Know Yourself."

 

Readings [80+ pages]

 

¨        Washington's Farewell Address, 1796; The Monroe Doctrine: President Monroe's Annual Message to Congress, December 2, 1823; and The Open Door Note, 1899 and Circular Note to the Great Powers, 1900, in Thomas G. Paterson, ed., Major Problems in American Foreign Policy, Documents and Essays, Volume I: To 1914 (Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath and Co, 1978), pp. 85-89, 167-168, 296-299 [11, in packet] Three fun-to-read actual historical documents about some of the major policies of the first 100 years of USFP.

 

¨        Merrill, Dennis, J. and Thomas G. Paterson, Major Problems in American Foreign Policy Volume I: To 1920, 5 ed. (Houghton Mifflin, 2000), Chapter 11, pp. 346-375 [30, in packet]. The Spanish-American war helped launch the U.S. onto the world stage. Read all about it! (and find out why in this context that phrase is a sick joke).

 

¨        Paterson, Clifford, Maddock, Kisatsky, and Hagan, American Foreign Relations, read Chapter 1, skim chapter 2 (but read sections "The Constable..." and "Japan, China...") pp. 1-32 [33+]. Standard background on the material being covered.

 

 

Classes 13, 14: World War I and World War II

 

Perhaps no issue is more worrisome than the prospect of a Third World War. While we discuss this in the last few sessions of class, it is instructive to learn why the U.S. entered the first two world wars. We did not have to. We made choices. What choices did we make? What influenced our policy? Are these same influences present today? Will future threats resemble the threats that cost us such large amounts of blood and treasure in the past?

 

Readings [117+137 (254) pages]

 

WWI

 

¨        Paterson, Clifford, Maddock, Kisatsky, and Hagan, American Foreign Relations, chapters 3 and 4. [72]

 

¨        John G. Coogan, "Wilson's Unneutrality and Its Costs," in Thomas G. Paterson, ed., Major Problems in American Foreign Policy, Documents and Essays, Volume II: Since 1914, 3 ed. (Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath and Co, 1989), pp. 63-71. [9, in packet]

 

¨        Merrill and Paterson, Major Problems, World War I chapter (2), pp 33-69 [36]

 

 

WWII

 

¨        Paterson, Clifford, Maddock, Kisatsky, and Hagan, American Foreign Relations, chapters 5 and 6. [82]

 

¨        Jonathan G. Utley, "Roosevelt's Failure of Leadership, Bureaucracy, and War with Japan," in Thomas G. Paterson, ed., Major Problems in American Foreign Policy, Documents and Essays, Volume II: Since 1914, 3 ed. (Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath and Co, 1989), pp. 226-229. [3, in packet]

 

¨        Jonathan G. Utley, Going to War With Japan 1937-1941 (Knoxville, KY: University of Tennessee Press, 1985), pp. 151-156 [5, in packet]

 

¨        Waldo Heinrichs, The Threshold of War: Franklin D. Roosevelt and American Entry into World War II (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1988), pp. 141-142, 177-79, 246-247 (note 68) [6, in packet]. "Was the crucial American decision to cut off oil exports to Japan taken by a bureaucracy out of control? Utley and Heinrichs disagree. How can this mystery be unraveled?" Credit to Prof. Van Evera, MIT, for Utley vs Heinrichs and this quote from his CoW syllabus (http://web.mit.edu/17.423/www/Archive98/Syllabus.html)

 

¨        Merrill and Paterson, Major Problems, U.S. Entry into WWII chapter (4), pp. 112-153 [41]

 

 

Classes 15, 16: Cold War

 

     The United States and the Soviet Union were locked in a global struggle and threatened to destroy each other with nuclear weapons for almost forty years. It seems strange, even absurd, in retrospect. How did we get into such a potentially disastrous situation? How did we manage to survive? Are we really in the clear now? Note: we will also touch on some of the Cold War's strategic nuclear issues when we cover Weapons of Mass Destruction in future classes.

 

Readings (141+pages)

 

¨        Paterson, Clifford, Maddock, Kisatsky, and Hagan, American Foreign Relations, chapters 7, and 8 pp. 269-275, 295-308 [95]

 

¨        John Lewis Gaddis, Surprise, Security, and the American Experience (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2004). Read carefully chapter 4 (21^st century), skim the rest [121 pages, 46 to read carefully]. Here we put 9/11 into perspective with thoughts and analysis from one of the US’ premiere diplomatic historians.

 

¨        George F. Kennan’s Long Telegram, Winston S. Churchill's "Iron Curtain" Speech, 1946; The Truman Doctrine, 1947; The Marshall Plan (Economic Cooperation Act of 1948); and National Security Council Paper No. 68 (NSC-68), 1950 in Merrill and Paterson, Major Problems, all within the Origins of the Cold War chapter (6), within pp. 186-243. These are some of the documents that marked the start of the Cold War and helped set it in motion. One thing to note in these documents is their clarity of purpose. How does Bush’s “National Security Strategy” document compare?

 

 

Class 17: Vietnam War

 

     The Vietnam War was a scarring experience for the U.S. that continues to affect policy to this day. How did an initially small involvement turn into such a heart-wrenching, soul-searching debacle? What lessons were learned, or should have been learned? Could it happen again?

 

Readings (86 pages)

 

¨        Paterson, Clifford, Maddock, Kisatsky, and Hagan, American Foreign Relations, chapter 9 (skip Cuban Missile Crisis) and pp. 391-402 [48]

 

¨        Merrill and Paterson, Major Problems, Vietnam War, chapter 11 [38]

 

 

Class 18, 19: Gulf War with emphasis on the role of the media

 

     To date, this is the major war of the post-Cold War period. The Persian Gulf has long been declared an area vital to U.S. national interests. A vital interest is one for which the U.S. is willing to spend blood to protect. Why did we fight the Gulf War? Would you have sent troops to push Iraq out of Kuwait? Why? Why was the Congressional vote for the war so close, especially in the Senate (see "Authorization..." below)? The readings provide a number of varied and passionate viewpoints that address these questions.

We are spending two days on the Gulf War, not just because of its intrinsic importance and because it is a recent case study of the policy process in action, but also because we will use the event to analyze the role of the media in influencing policy and to explore the ethical issues raised by decisions to go to war.

 

Readings (94 pages). All but the first reading and the Merrill and Paterson item under President Bush are in the packet

 

¨        Paterson, Clifford, Maddock, Kisatsky, and Hagan, American Foreign Relations, pp. 491-496. [5] Again, an overview that will help you integrate and understand the rest of the readings.

 

¨        Elizabeth Drew, "Washington Prepares for War," excerpts from "Letter from Washington," New Yorker, February 4, 1991 in Micah L. Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds., The Gulf War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions (New York, NY: Times Books/Random House, 1991), pp. 180-193. [14, in packet] A glimpse at what was going on in Washington. Who was making what decisions, and what considerations were most important?

 

¨        Thomas L. Friedman, "Washington's 'Vital Interests'" originally published as "Confrontation in the Gulf: U.S. Gulf Policy - Vague 'Vital Interest,'" New York Times August 12, 1990 and reprinted in Micah L. Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds., The Gulf War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions (New York, NY: Times Books/Random House, 1991), pp. 203-206. [4, in packet] A critique of the war-for-oil argument. Good to see some facts in some of these arguments...

 

¨        Representative Stephen J. Solarz, "The Case for Intervention," originally published as "The Stakes in the Gulf," in The New Republic, January 7/14, 1991 and reprinted in Micah L. Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds.,The Gulf War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions (New York, NY: Times Books/Random House, 1991), pp. 269-274; 282-283. [8, in packet] A summary of many of the standard justifications for going to war. Which do you dis/agree with?

 

¨        Patrick Buchanan, "Have the Neocons Thought This Through?" originally published as a nationwide syndicated column, "How the Gulf Crisis is Rupturing the Right" on August 25, 1990 and reprinted in Micah L. Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds., The Gulf War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions (New York, NY: Times Books/Random House, 1991), pp. 213-215. [3, in packet] Generally, Republican conservatives were more in favor of the war than Democrats. But here is a critique of the movement toward war from inside the conservative camp. Note his assumptions about what the war would look like once underway.

 

¨        "Authorization for Use of Military Force," Joint Congressional Resolution of January 12,1991, reprinted in Micah L. Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds., The Gulf War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions (New York, NY: Times Books/Random House, 1991), pp. 287-289. [3, in packet] Note the close vote. This is how these resolutions are written.

 

¨        President George Bush, "The Liberation of Kuwait has Begun," Speech of January 16, 1991, reprinted in Micah L. Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds., The Gulf War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions (New York, NY: Times Books/Random House, 1991), pp.. 311-314. Bush's justifications for war. A motivational call to arms by the one responsible. Also Merrill and Paterson, Major Problems, p. 550-551.[4, in packet]

 

¨        Saddam Hussein, "The Mother of All Battles," Speech of January 20, 1991 reprinted in Micah L. Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds., The Gulf War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions (New York, NY: Times Books/Random House, 1991), pp. 315-316. [2, in packet] In a sense, this is Hussein's response to Bush.

 

¨        Janice Gross Stein, "Threat-Based Strategies of Conflict Management: Why Did They Fail in the Gulf?" in Stanley A. Renshon, ed., The Political Psychology of the Gulf War: Leaders, Publics, and the Process of Conflict (Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1993), pp. 121-144. [23, in packet] (but endnotes should be part of packet, adding 10pp) This reading to returns us to the role of policy analyst and assesses the questions raised in the theory section above: when do carrots or sticks work and under what conditions? Was it possible to coerce Hussein? What mistakes were made and could we do better in the future?

 

 

**The following readings shift our attention to the role of the media and public opinion in the foreign policy process. We are a democracy. Do leaders follow public opinion? Should they? Or do leaders shape public opinion? And how does the media filter, distort, transmit, or otherwise help and hinder communications between leaders and the public?

 

¨        John E. Reilly, ed., "American Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy 1995" (Chicago, IL: Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, 1995), pp. 6-12. [6, in packet] An overview of U.S. public opinion on various USFP-related issues.

 

¨        Everette E. Dennis, et. al., "Censorship. The Military and the Media: The Gulf Conflict in Historical Perspective," in The Media at War: The Press and the Persian Gulf Conflict (New York, NY: Gannett Foundation Media Center, Columbia University, June 1991), pp. 8-20. [12, in packet] How does media coverage during the Gulf War compare to coverage during past wars? What has changed? There are certainly good arguments on all sides of the issue. What do you think the rules for the media should be?

 

¨        Marvin Kalb, "A View from the Press," and Lt. General Thomas W. Kelly (ret.) "A View from the Military," in W. Lance Bennett and David L Paletz, eds., Taken By Storm: The Media, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Gulf War (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1994), pp. 3-8. [5, in packet] Contending views on the role of the media during the Gulf War.

 

¨        David Pearson, "The Media and Government Deception," Propaganda Review (Spring 1989), pp. 6-11 [5, in packet] A grim picture. Based on the above readings and your own experience, do you agree?

 

¨        Barbara Crossette, “The FP Memo: How to Defuse the Bolton Bomb” Foreign Policy, No. 155 (July.August 2006) pp. 68-72 [5, in packet]

 

 

Part III: ISSUES AND DEBATES

 

 

Class 20: Resources and the Environment

 

How much should we worry about the environment? Can environmental problems lead to war? The U.S. depends on imported resources for its well-being -- or does it? Under what conditions should we go to war for resources?

 

Readings (80 pages, of which 18 are to skim). All are in the packet

 

¨        Introduction and Chapter 10, "Should We Conserve Resources for Others' Sakes? What Kinds of Resources Need Conservation?" in Julian L. Simon, The Ultimate Resource (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1981), pp. 3-8 and 144-155. [18 - skim; focus on Economist article below] A provocative set of arguments that suggest we needn't worry about resources. Note that many of those who take an economic view about resources and the environment are often more optimistic than those who start with political, moral, or other assumptions. Why is this so?

 

¨        “Steady as she goes,” The Economist, Vol. 379, No. 8474 (April 22^nd, 2006) pp. 65-67 [3, in packet]

 

¨        Editors of The Economist, "Environmental Scares: Plenty of Gloom" in The Economist, Vol. 345, No. 8048 (December 20, 1997), pp. 19-20. [2, in packet] A skeptical view on the significance of reports of environmental problems.

 

¨        Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, "Environmental Scarcity and Mass Violence," in Gearoid O Tuathail, Simon Dalby, and Paul Routledge, eds., The Geopolitics Reader (London, UK: Routledge, 1998), pp. 204-211 (reprint from Current History 1996). [8, in packet] Is this a warning about the future? If scarcity is on the rise, what problems will we face?

 

¨        Vaclav Smil, "Some Contrarian Notes on Environmental Threats to National Security," in Gearoid O. Tuathail, Simon Dalby, and Paul Routledge, eds., The Geopolitics Reader (London, UK: Routledge, 1998), pp. 212-214 (reprint from Canadian Foreign Policy 1994). [3, in packet] Somewhat of a counterargument to Homer-Dixon. Are environmental problems properly conceived of as national security problems?

 

¨        Lester R. Brown, "The Future of Growth," in Lester R. Brown, et. al., eds., State of the World: 1998 (New York, NY: W. W. Norton and Co., 1998), pp. 3-20. [18, in packet] Another fairly standard, on the pessimistic side, view of our future.

 

¨        World Resources Institute, World Resources, 1998-1999: A Guide to the Global Environment (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press), pp. 170-178. [9, in packet]

 

¨        National Intelligence Council, CIA, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts, NIC-2000-02, December 2000, pp. 19-31. [12] To read the black and white graphs, the order of the lines in the box is the order of the lines in the graph on the right side of the Y axis. This is the last reading in the packet. For the full color version, check out: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/globaltrends2015.pdf

¨        Thomas L. Friedman, “The First Law of Petropolitics,” Foreign Policy, No 154 (May/June 2006) pp. 28-26 [9, in packet]

 

¨        Christopher Dickey, “The Oil Shield,” Foreign Policy, No 154 (May/June 2006) pp. 37-39 [3, in packet]

 

 

Classes 21, 22: Economics: Trade, Aid, Development, Globalization

 

Here we survey some of the major economic issues facing US foreign policy makers.

 

Readings (162 pages). All are in the packet

 

¨        John W. Wright, ed., The New York Times Almanac, 1998 (New York, NY: New York Times, 1997), pp. 508-518. [11] Again, we start with the basic facts. Who is trading with who, etc. Keep your eye on the big picture, although stats fans (like me) are always trying to find unexpected facts and odd relationships.

 

¨        FY 2007 International Affairs Summary pp. 1-7 [7, in packet]

 

¨        Millennium Challenge Corporation, Budget Justification 2007, “Executive Summary,” pp. 1-6 [4, in packet]

 

¨        Steven Radelet, “A Primer on Foreign Aid,” (Center for Global Development, July 2006) pp. 1-23 (+5pgs) [28, in packet]

 

¨        U.S. Department of State, FY 2007 Budget in Brief (February 6^th, 2006) [7, in packet]

 

¨        “A glimmer of light at last,” The Economist, Vol. 379, No. 8483 (June 24^th, 2006) pp. 51-52 [2, in packet]

 

¨        Eric J. Labs, "The Role of Foreign Aid in Development," (Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office, May 1997), pp. 7-10. [4, in packet] A survey of U.S. foreign aid by fellow MIT grad, Dr. Labs. Focus on arguments and graphs

 

¨        David G. Victor, “Recovering Sustainable Development,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, No. 1 (January/February 2006) pp. 91-103 [13, in packet]

 

¨        “The magnificent seven,” The Economist, Vol. 379, No. 8475 (April 29^th, 2006) pp. 51-52 [3, in packet]

 

¨        Richard Odingo, “We can’t solve poverty until we stop climate change,” The Independent, May 15^th, 2006 [3, in packet]

 

¨        Michael A. Fletcher and Paul Blustein, “Millenium Challenge Will Give More Grants to Well-Governed Nations” The Washington Post, January 26^th, 2006 [4, in packet]

 

¨        Larry Elliott, “Millennium Challenge: UN spells out the stark choice: do more for world’s poor or face disaster” The Guardian, September 8^th, 2005 [3, in packet]

 

¨        Editors of The Economist, "Kill or Cure?" in The Economist, Vol. 346, No. 8050 (January 10, 1998), pp. 13-14. [2, in packet] By now, you will have read stories in the newspaper about Russian economic problems. Loans from the U.S.-supported IMF dwarf regular U.S. foreign aid. But these loans are often wasted or become subject to politics. Is there an alternative?

 

¨        Theodore H. Moran, "Trade and Investment Dimensions of International Conflict" in Chester A. Crocker and Fen Osler Hampson with Pamela Aall, Managing Global Chaos: Sources and Responses to International Conflict (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1996), pp. 155-170. [14, in packet] A good summary of the possible effects of trade on relations between states.

¨        Samuel J. Palmisano, “The Globally Integrated Enterprise,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, No. 3 (May/June 2006) pp. 127-136 [10, in packet]

 

¨        Editors of The Economist, "The future of the state;" "Markets go global;" "Still in command;" and "Ballad of the Global Worker," in The World Economy Survey in The Economist, Vol. 344, No. 8035 (September 20, 1997), pp. 1-42 (15 pp. actual). [15, in packet] A series of articles assessing the extent of globalization.

 

¨        Timothy Samuel Shah and Monica Duffy Toft, “Why God is Winning,” Foreign Policy, No. 155 (July/August 2006) pp. 38-43 [5, in packet]

 

¨        Editors of The Economist, "If Japan Should Crash?" in The Economist, Vol. 347, No. 8063 (April 11, 1998), p. 12. [1, in packet] ”Coming to market,” The Economist, Vol. 379, No. 8473 (April 15, 2006) pp. 69 [3, in packet] More articles casting a critical eye on the extent of globalization.

 

¨        Richard N. Haass, "Sanctioning Madness," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 76, No. 6 (November/December 1997), pp. 74-85. [12, in packet] From Serbia and Iraq to India and Pakistan, the U.S. government loves sanctions. Haass doesn't. Many counter-arguments to Haass exist. What do you think they are?

 

¨        National Intelligence Council, CIA, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts, NIC-2000-02, December 2000, pp. 34-38. [4] To read the black and white graphs, the order of the lines in the box is the order of the lines in the graph on the right side of the Y axis. This is the last reading in the packet. For the full color version, check out: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/globaltrends2015.pdf

 

¨        The Fund for Peace and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The Failed States Index,” Foreign Policy, No. 154 (May/June 2006) pp. 50-58 [8, in packet]

 

 

 

Classes 23, 24, 25: Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Terrorism, Proliferation, and Arms Control

 

As weapons and delivery know-how, technology, and materials spread, the likelihood increases of cities being blown up by Nuclear weapons or gassed by Biological or Chemical weapons (NBC weapons are the three WMD). What is the extent of the problem? And what can be done about it? Arms control sounds good, but how well has it worked in the past?

 

The stakes with WMD are huge. What kind of world will you inherit and what kind of world will you leave behind?

 

Readings (258 pages)

 

¨        U. S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, The Effects of Nuclear War (Washington, DC: OTA, 1979), pp. 1-12 [12, in packet] Skim. Nuclear weapons are destructive.

 

¨        Falkenrath, Richard A. Robert D. Newman, and Bradley A. Thayer, America's Achilles' Heel: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998). [7, in packet]. Various pages; note facts about the NEST on p. 42, the effects of attacks, and the recommendations in the conclusion, including the chart on pp. 270-71)

 

¨        Russell D. Howard and Reid L. Sawyer, eds., Terrorism and Counterrorism: Understanding the New Security Environment, revised and updated edition (Guilford, CT: McGraw-Hill/Dushkin 2004), Various chapters and sub-chapters, including: Richard K. Betts, "The New Threat of Mass Destruction," pp. 232-241, Richard F. Pilch, “The Bioterrorist Threat in the United States, pp. 263-297; All of Chapter 7: “The Challenges of Terrorism,” (with four sub-chapters), pp. 383-432; All of Chapter 8, “Strategies and Approaches for Combating Terrorism,” (with five sub-chapters), pp. 433-494; All of Chapter 9: “Organizing to Fight Terrorism,” pp. 495-530 (with five sub-chapters).

¨        The Center for American Progress and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The Terrorism Index,” Foreign Policy, No. 155 (July/August 2006) pp. 49-55 [7, in packet]

 

¨        "The CTB Treaty and Nuclear Non-Proliferation: The Debate Continues," Arms Control Today, Vol. 28, No. 2 (March 1998), pp. 7-11 [5, in packet]. A debate about the ability of states to limit the danger of WMD with arms control. The central points in this debate could be applied to almost any weapon or arms control treaty.

 

¨        “The long, long half-life,” The Economist, Vol.379, No. 8481 (June 10^th, 2006) pp. 21-23 [3, in packet]

 

¨        Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier, Securing the Bomb 2006, (Cambridge, Mass., and Washington, D.C.: Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, and Nuclear Threat Initiative, July 2006) pp. v-6, 106, 110 [18, in packet]

 

¨        Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, “The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, No 2 (March/April 2006) pp. 42-54 [13, in packet]

 

 

Classes 26, 27: Ethnic Conflict, Humanitarian Intervention, and Peacekeeping

 

 

Many people have died or will die in conflicts in places like Bosnia, Somalia, Rwanda, Cambodia, and the Sudan. Should we care? Why? If we decide we care, what should we do about it? The readings run through a number of arguments including summarizing U.S. interests in the developing world, the role of human rights in foreign policy, the extent and nature of ethnic conflict, and a case study of what happened in the former Yugoslavia to help tie these various arguments and themes together.

 

Readings (126 pages)

 

¨        John Rapely, “The New Middle Ages,” Foreign Affairs, Vo. 85, No. 3 (May/June 2006) pp. 95-103 [9, in packet]

 

¨        “The illusion of Empire Lite,” The Economist, Vol. 379, No. 8483 (June 24^th, 2006) pp. 13-14 [2, in packet]

 

¨        Richard K. Betts, "The Delusion of Impartial Intervention," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, No. 6 (November/December 1994), pp. 20-33. [14, in packet] According to Betts, military interventions in civil wars involve numerous pitfalls.

 

¨        Chapter 12, "Human Rights and Foreign Policy," in Jack Donnelly, Universal Human Rights in Theory and Practice (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989), pp. 229-249. [21, in packet]

 

¨        The United Nations, “The Universal Declaration of Human Rights,” (December 10, 1948) http://www.un.org/Overview/rights.html [7, in packet

 

¨        “Bringing the wicked to the dock,” The Economist, Vol. 378, No. 8468 (March 11^th, 2006) pp. 20-22 [3, in packet]

 

¨        “Still fiddling while it burns,” “Africa’s most wanted,” The Economist, Vol. 379, No. 8480 (June 3^rd, 2006) pp. 43-44 [2, in packet

 

¨        Helena Cobban, “Think Again: International Courts,” Foreign Policy, No. 153 (March/April 2006) pp. 22-28 [6, in packet]

 

¨        Paterson, Clifford, Maddock, Kisatsky, and Hagan, American Foreign Relations, pp. 482-491, 499-509. [17]

 

¨        Michael E. Brown, excerpts from "Introduction," in Michael E. Brown, ed. The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996), pp. 1-12. [12, in packet]

 

¨        Ivo Daalder, "Fear and Loathing in the Former Yugoslavia," in Michael E. Brown, ed. The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996), pp. 35-67. [33, in packet]

 

 

Part IV: Forecasts and Strategies for the Future

 

 

Classes 28-29: The Future and What We Should Do About It

 

Will there be another World War? Why? Is the U.S. a declining power? Who, if anyone should we be afraid of? What should be the future U.S. grand strategy? We opened with a look at current U.S. grand strategy and we close with various arguments about the future of U.S. grand strategy.

 

Readings (145 pages)

 

This section's readings suggest different U.S. grand strategies. Posen and Ross review a number of grand strategies and go up the middle: we should be involved in some places, some of the time, when it's important. Gholz, Press, and Sapolsky seductively apply the Yellowstone natural fire policy to USFP and argue that we should butt-out (ie.: let it burn and that's good for us). Howard argues for pre-emption, while Walt highlights some possible dangers – though focusing on grand strategy more generally. Optional: For my views on the war on terrorism, beginning with the point that it is not a war but a campaign involving more than military force, see: http://www.nd.edu/~krocinst/ocpapers/op_22_1.PDF

 

¨        Barry R. Posen and Andrew L. Ross "Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy," International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Winter 1996/97). pp. 5-48 [43, in packet]

 

¨        Eugene Gholz, Daryl G. Press, and Harvey M. Sapolsky, "Come Home America: The Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation," International Security, Vol. 21, No. 4 (Spring 1997), pp. 5-53 [48, in packet].

 

¨         “A giant stirs, a region bridles,” The Economist, Vol. 379, No.8477 (May 13^th, 2006) pp. 25-27 [3, in packet]

 

¨        “Look out, Europe, they say,” The Economist, Vol. 379, No. 8483 (June 24^th, 2006) pp. 29-34 [3, in packet]

 

¨        Peter Hakim, “Is Washington Losing Latin America?” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, No. 1 (January/February 2006), pp. 39-53 [15, in packet]

 

¨        Michael Mandelbaum, “David’s Friend Goliath,” Foreign Policy, No. 152 (January/February 2006), pp. 50-56 [6, in packet]

 

¨        National Intelligence Council, CIA, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts, NIC-2000-02, December 2000, pp. 59-86 [27, in packet]. An amazingly comprehensive survey of future problems ranging from economic to environmental to security. To read the black and white graphs, the order of the lines in the box is the order of the lines in the graph on the right side of the Y axis. For the full color version, check out: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/globaltrends2015.pdf