Lindley: remaining outlines

REMAINING OUTLINES

POLS 324: Start History of AFP: Founding Up To WWI

1. Review of themes and central questions:

a. What are US interests?

b. What is the role of values in defining interests?

c. How is policy made and what explains sub-optimal outcomes?

d. Patterns in USFP

i. Realism vs. Idealism and Liberalism

ii. Interventionism and Globalism vs. Isolationism

e. Why Study History?

i. Source of lessons

ii. A tool for leaders

iii. A source of predictions

f. How to Study History

i. Always be alert to alternative explanations and multiple motivations

2. Washington's Farewell Address 1796

a. Idealism

b. Commercialism

c. Realism

i. Caution against passions/entanglements

d. Isolationism/neutrality

i. Fear of external manipulation (also realist)

3. Early Wars - Naval Battles, War of 1812

4. Monroe Doctrine 1823

a. Our hemisphere

b. For ideology, profit, power...

c. Dependent on...

d. Note historical context and evolution of term

5. Manifest Destiny ~1845

a. A fancy name for filling a (less densely) populated power vacuum

6. Mexican American War 1846

7. Spanish American War, 1896

a. Why did it start? What reasons were offered?

b. What would Allison say? What would Walt say? Putnam? You? (etc)

c. What were the effects?

i. We were on our way to being a global, imperial power...

8. Open Door Policy

9. Caribbean Intervention graph

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POLS 324: WWI Outline

1. Why did it start?

(agenda: will situations like this recur? Are these conditions present today?)

a. Nationalism

b. Tight Alliances/All-or-Nothing Mobilization

c. (perceived) Offense Dominance

d. Shifting power, colonial rivalries, arms races

e. Miscalculation

2. Why did we get involved? And with and against who?

(agenda: why do we get into wars? When will we again?)

a. Pro-Brit Leadership (Birds of a Feather?)

b. Pro-Brit Leadership (Penetration?)

c. Pro-Brit Leadership (Bur Pol?)

d. Economics (Rational Actor?)

e. Aggression against Americans (Rational Actor?)

f. Principles (Jervis?)

i. Coogan article

g. Preserve European BOP (BoT/Rational Actor?)

3. What did we do with victory?

(agenda: what have we learned for the next time?)

a. 'World is our Oysterism'

b. ‘Fixing the last warism'

c. Fourteen Points

d. League of Nations and League fight

i. Collective Security?

4. Interwar Period

a. Pacifism and disarmament

i. Neutrality acts

ii. Kellogg-Briand Pact

iii. Naval arms agreements

b. LON experience

c. Great Depression

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World War II

1. Themes

1. Do you need legitimate grievances to go to war?

1. Do conditions really need to be bad for scapegoating to work?

2. What does it take to ID an aggressor?

3. Errors of old lessons and creation of new lessons/analogies

4. Spirals toward autarky

2. And same big questions as for WWI:

1. Why did it start?

1. (agenda: will situations like this recur? Are these conditions present today?)

2. Why did we get involved? And with and against who?

1. (agenda: why do we get into wars? When will we again?)

3. What did we do with victory?

1. (agenda: what have we learned for the next time?)

3. Hitler's rise

1. Semi-real grievances

1. Most stemming from Versailles Treaty

2. Societal/Economic turmoil and inflation

1. scapegoats

3. Electoral Manipulation

4. Germany on the March

1. salami tactics

2. appeasement (what choices?)

5. US Response to Germany

1. Overcoming isolationism and neutrality

2. Long term lesson: Munich analogy

6. Japan on the march

1. more racist nationalism

2. security dilemmas and backing itself corner w/US help

7. US Response to Japan

1. Naval buildup,

2. Steadily rising tensions

3. Hawks push oil embargo

4. Long term lesson: Pearl Harbor analogy

8. Conduct of the War

1. Wartime conferences and alliance management

1. stage being set for Cold War?

2. Decision to drop the bomb

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POLS 324: Cold War

Three Parts to the Cold War Lectures:

1. Historical Overview Focusing on Why Did It Start?

Big Question: How might one start again?

2. Thematic Overview of the Cold War

3. Kennan and AFP

1. History and Questions

a. Why did it start?

b. What was it about?

c. Whose fault was it?

d. Could it have been prevented?

e. How can future cold wars be prevented?

2. Start of Cold War

a. Interwar years

b. WWII Conferences

i. Yalta and Potsdam

ii. Hopes, vagueness, lies, and political necessity

c. The Bomb, the Atomic Bomb

3. Immediate Post WWII Period

a. Testing in E Eur, Iran

b. Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan

i. Czech coup

c. National Security Act of 1947

d. Berlin, 1948

e. NATO 4/1949

f. Israel 1948-56

g. Soviet Bomb 9/1949

h. China "lost" late 1949

i. McCarthy and McCarthyism

j. NSC 68 4/1950

Thematic Overview of Cold War:

4. Great Danger

5. Great apparent certainty of purpose and apparent overall consistency of policy

a. Containment

i. Zero-sum chessboard and global extended deterrence/alliances

(1) Credibility and Dominoes

(a) belief it was a bandwagoning world

(b) Munich, Pearl Harbor

ii. "Pacto-Mania"

b. Global competition of Cold War involved:

i. pacts

ii. real wars

iii. proxy wars

iv. crises

v. subversion

vi. propaganda and 'image wars'

vii. arms race, space race...

viii. spending

6. Great changes in power and politics

a. BOP

b. Technology

c. Colonialism

d. USFP

7. Some learning and evolution of policies

a. Doctrines

b. Gaps

c. Rules of road

d. Frequency of crises

8. End of Cold War

a. What made it possible?

b. Why was it so sudden?

9. Today: Debates and Questions

a. Why did CW start? Why did it end?

b. Are we safer?

i. Long Peace?

c. What grounds our FP? What are our purposes?

POLS 324: Kennan and NSC-68

Kennan

1. Major Themes:

1. Realism vs. Idealism

2. Containment

3. Democracy: pros and cons

2. Communist Ideology + Communist Circumstances

1. Innate antagonism + drive to maintain power, but

2. No timetable for inevitable communist victory, and

3. Respect for facts and power, thus:

3. Containment

1. resist communist pressures worldwide

2. exploit their internal weakness

3. exploit true strengths of US

1. while minimizing our weaknesses

(1) or else bandwagoning towards Soviets

4. A test of our worth, must face up to moral and political leadership that history intended us to bear.

NSC-68

1. Problem: Shifting Power and Soviet Threat

2. Solution:

1. Develop healthy intl community

2. Containment

1. Block Soviets

2. Expose their falsities

3. Foster seeds of internal collapse

(1) Pre-reqs for above: strength, readiness, credibility

3. Notes on infiltration and A-bombs

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Vietnam

1. Background: French and Indochina

2. Themes

1. Cold War context and (mis)perceptions

2. Slippery-slope entry

3. Incremental war-fighting

4. Importance of public support

5. Decades of after-effects

(1) Vietnam Syndrome

(2) Weakened FP consensus

(3) Domestic economic and spiritual costs

(4) Changed military policies

(1) Weinberger/Powell Doctrine

(5) What are new syndromes and doctrines?

Some Facts:

0. Financial aid to French: $150m in 1950; $2-2.6B bet 1945-1954. In 1952 US covered costs of war. 300 US advisors in 1954 while covering 78% of costs of war.

1. Begin 1961: 400 spec forces and 100 more advisors. By end of 1961, 3205 Amcans in Vnam;

2. 1962 = 9000,

3. end of 1963, 16,700. (109 US dead in 1962; 489 dead in 1963.)

4. 4/65 first big troops #s: 40k to go.

5. By end of 1965, up to 200,000 and

6. By 1969: 543k

7. By End: 58k US dead; 1.5-3 million Vietnamese

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Gulf War Class Outline

1. Background

a. US cares about oil

b. Iraq is ruthlessly aggressive

2. Why Iraq invaded and was not deterred

a. Vulnerable pot of gold

b. Poor deterrence policy

c. Misperceptions

3. Why US went to war

a. Lots of reasons (Class Exercise)

b. What about sanctions?

c. Reasons to avoid war?

d. Evaluating the arguments:

i. Necessity and Proportionality

e. Domestic politics of the war

4. How US/UN fought the war

a. coalition building and maintenance

b. Nuclear WMD deterrence

5. Aftermath

a. UN sanctions and WMD inspections

Media, Public Opinion, and War

1. Public Opinion

2. Press

a. press and agenda setting

i. organizational motivations

b. press gets us into war

i. yellow press

ii. CNN effect

c. press gets us out of war

d. press affects conduct of war

e. Censorship and war

i. Vietnam vs. Gulf War

f. Globalization and the press

Table: Basic Components of Military Strength 324S04: DO NOT WORRY ABOUT THESE NUMBERS; ENJOY THEM AT YOUR LEISURE.

Total Active Armed Forces

1990 Defense Expenditures

1990 GDP

1990 Population

Turkey

647,000

$3.28 Billion

$78.8 Billion

55.9 Million (20% Kurds)

Iran

504,000

$8.76 Billion

$44.7 Billion

52.0 Million

Syria

404,000

$2.5 Billion

$20.3 Billion

12.4 Million

Iraq

1,000,000

$13.3 Billion

$58.5 Billion

19.1 Million

Israel (1983)

141,000+

$6.3 Billion

$39.9 Billion

4.6/3.7 Million

Saudi Arabia

67,500

$13.8 Billion

$78.5 Billion

14.1 Million

Kuwait

20,300

$1.54 Billion

$23.1 Billion

2.0 Million

IISS MilBal 90-91, a few figures are 1989 or most recent available.

Table: Basic Components of Military Strength

Total Active Armed Forces

1996 Defense Expenditures

1996 GDP

1996 Population

Turkey

639,000

$7.0 Billion

$182 Billion

63.2 Million (20% Kurds)

Iran

518,000

$3.4 Billion

$67.3 Billion

68.7 Million

Syria

320,000

$1.6 Billion

$32.7 Billion

15.3 Million

Iraq

387,500

$1.3 Billion

$15.0 Billion

22.4 Million

Israel (1983)

176,000

$6.8 Billion

$65 Billion

6 Million

Saudi Arabia

101,000

$16.5 Billion

$122 Billion

12 Million

Kuwait

13,700

$13 Billion

$21.2 Billion

1.5 Million

IISS MilBal 96 or 97

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POLS 324: Environment and Resources

1. Exercise: USFP and Environment/Resource Issues

a. (make list to overview problems)

2. Big Questions:

a. What is extent of the problem(s)?

i. Quick survey

ii. THEME: Drivers: population + development

iii. Global Trends - survey

(1) Population

(2) Food

(3) Water

(4) Oil and Energy

(5) Environment

b. What can we do about it? Spur or slow development?

c. What are we doing about it?

3. Questions for future

a. Development and growth: a threat? A hope? Both?

b. Are we heading towards tipping points?

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324: Economic Instruments of USFP: Foreign Aid, Sanctions, Trade Policy (+globalization)

1. Foreign Aid

a. Overview of preconditions for development

i. Political Stability and Social Order

(1) good governance

ii. Low corruption

iii. Legal and physical infrastructure: Protection of property rights, other econ/social basics (justice, etc), some roads, plumbing, electricity, phones, etc.

(1) Infrastructure helps to attract investment

iv. Decent educational system

v. Question: Is this not a chicken egg problem?

(1) Maybe not: quick overview of lessons from Asian ‘tigers.'

(2) Maybe yes: new UNDP report

(3) Bottom line: little progress

b. Overview of Aid levels and history

i. parsing the US aid budget(s)

c. Two types of aid:

i. Ameliorative

ii. Long term

2. IFIs

a. Bretton Woods System, 1944

b. World Bank (development)

c. IMF (debt, bankrupt countries)

i. a big deal in aid world...

ii. moral hazard

iii. for whose benefit?

iv. Debt Forgiveness...

3. Free Trade Areas/Organizations

a. Themes:

i. Free trade vs. protectionism

(1) short term vs. long term competitiveness

ii. Sovereignty...

b. WTO, 1993 (was GATT, 1947)

c. NAFTA

i. FTAA

d. EU

e. APEC

4. Political Effects of Trade

a. Distributional Effects of Trade: Who gets what, and who get more or less?

b. Interdependence and War

i. Manchester liberal view

c. Relative vs. Absolute Gains

i. Times of plenty vs...

d. Domestic Politics

e. Moran's 6 discrete conflict areas

5. Decline Debate

a. Are differential rates of growth inevitable?

i. Japan vs. US in 1989...

ii. China vs. US in 2001? EU vs. US?

(1) Relative vs. Absolute Gains

6. Sanctions

a. What are they?

i. Unilateral vs. Multilateral

b. Why have them?

i. Moral vs. practical vs. political reasons

c. Do they work?

i. A little, when needed little

ii. Factors favoring success (invert for favoring failure):

(1) Can control valuable commodities

(2) Goals are modest

(3) Target regime is open/democratic

iii. Case of Iraq

d. Targeted sanctions...

1. Globalization and Trade Policy

a. Define

i. ME: Greater flows of goods, money, info, people

(1) Less transaction costs

ii. Others: A. Attempts to manage these flows and their impacts/externalities and/or B. Effects of these flows on war/peace, poverty/wealth (Causes vs. Effects)

b. Possible Effects

i. Faster displacement w/capital flows (not just money).

(1) Winners and losers.

ii. Greater efficiency and overall wealth

iii. Spread of norms and transparency

(1) Structuralism applied to economics, but may subvert assumption of states as primary actors

iv. Health

v. Global village, NEC

(1) Spread of common info

(a) vs. balkanized info.

(2) Culture

vi. Interdependence and war and peace

(1) mutual dependence

(2) vulnerability

vii. Sovereignty and the fate of the state

(1) taxation and provision of protection and common goods

c. USFP and Globalization

i. Big Tension: Free Trade vs. Managing harmful effects for US

(1) Free trade helps productive states when field is level (and beats econ nationalism), but...

ii. Lower trans costs + factor mobility = luxuries like high wages, environ regs, workplace regs are threatened

iii. Solutions:

(1) Export our regulations

(a) Note Unions and Env groups are joining forces to balance against common threats.

(2) Keep productivity high

(a) to keep wages up and afford other luxuries

(b) the key to productivity is:

(i) Education

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POLS 324: WMD, War, Terrorism, and USFP

1. WMD - What they are and what they do

a. Nuclear weapons

i. Sort of hard to make (tech easy, materials hard), easy to deliver, Huge effects

b. Biological weapons

i. Pretty easy to make, maybe hard to deliver, Huge effects

c. Chemical weapons

i. easiest to make, maybe hard to deliver, relatively minor effects (a real WMD?)

d. Aum Shinrikyo as case study

e. Overall characteristics: lethality, portability, and fair accessibility = offense dominance, hard to defend against

f. Overall effects: bad

g. Plain old conventional terrorism

2. WMD Threats

a. War

i. Nuclear war with Russia? China?

ii. War between others? India/Pak? MidEast?

iii. Bio/Chem war?

(1) Is there a taboo?

b. Accidents/Inadvertent war

c. Terrorism

i. Old Conventional Wisdom: mass terror is unlikely

(1) Despite this, many NEST deployments

ii. New 9/11 CW: will stop at nothing

(1) + Fairly massive global WMD proliferation = would be BAD

iii. Bin Laden and Al Qaeda

iv. Loose Nukes and nuclear materials trafficking

d. Proliferation of WMD

i. Case study: North Korea

(1) Capabilities and Intentions

(2) 1994 Agreed Framework...

3. Managing the Problems/WMD Solutions

a. Arms Control to Stall Proliferation

b. Nunn Lugar

c. World Coordination of Everything from Policing, to Intel to Banking Info

d. Using Sanctions and Other Instruments to Punish and Coerce Proliferators and Terrorist Sponsors

e. Humanitarion Aid/Marshall Plan for Critical Areas

(1) Failed States and New Links to Domestic Security

f. Promoting Energy Conservation and Oil Exploration to Reduce Persian Gulf Oil Dependence;

g. Promoting the Growth of Middle Classes Throughout the Middle East (values, transparency, etc will follow)

h. Using Information Campaigns and Policy Adjustments to Reduce Enmity Toward the U.S. and the West;

i. Fostering Israeli/Palestinian Peace.

j. Homeland Security

k. Cost Issues: We can afford anything we want

4. Utility of Military Force

a. Very useful: Osiraq, Gulf War, Afghanistan

b. Partial Myths about Force

i. Doesn't solve problems

ii. Creates more problems

c. Iraq: What is the Threat and What Should We Do?

i. Very Bad Behavior:

(1) started two wars that killed 1.3++ million people,

(2) massive WMD programs which he prefers to protect rather than end sanctions, used WMD on own people,

(a) Repeated lied to and abused UN inspectors

(3) rejected oil for food for five years,

5. USFP and Terrorism

a. Realization of how bad things are

b. Catalyst for change?

6. Concluding Points

a. Lucky to be fighting this war now

b. We should be really scared

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POLS 324: USFP, Peacekeeping and Ethnic Conflict

1. What is it and who cares?

1. Death

2. Refugees

3. Spill-in/Spill-out

4. GPs

5. IOs

2. What Causes It?

1. Ancient Hatreds? Political and Economic Gain?

2. Underlying vs. Proximate Causes

3. Why more now?

4. Anarchy, but within states

3. How to reduce/prevent/ameliorate ethnic conflict?

1. Peacekeeping operations (when, at what cost?)

1. Peacekeeping vs Peace enforcement vs Multi-dimensional operations

2. Betts

2. Democratization (backfires? preconditions?)

3. Development (how?)

4. Sanctions (vs. Constructive Engagement)?

5. Partition (vs. Sovereignty)

4. USFP: Peacekeeping and Ethnic Conflict

1. Grand Strategy

2. Bosnia

3. Kosovo

4. Force Structure

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324 USFP: GRAND STRATEGIES

1. Grand strategy: "a political-military, means-ends chain, a state's theory about how it can best "cause" security for itself....A grand strategy must identify likely threats to the state's security and it must devise political, economic, military, and other remedies for those threats....Priorities must be established...resources are scarce."

2. But what are U.S. interests and goals? And what means will work to protect and promote them? Need theory and good history esp. to answer 2nd question.

3. Theories address these sorts of questions: Do states balance or bandwagon against threats? Is offense dominant? What are the effects on stability of nuclear weapons? Do conflicts spread? Is US involvement in future wars inevitable? If so, where?

4. GS Options, Definitions, Pros/Cons (Posen/Ross)

a. Option 1: Neo-Isolationism

b. Option 2: Selective Engagement

c. Option 3: Cooperative Security

d. Option 4: Primacy

e. Key questions:

i. What are costs and benefits of engagement?

ii. What strategies are feasible?

iii. Is US involvement in some wars inevitable?

iv. What is effect of US engagement on militarism and proliferation? And what is effect of militarism and proliferation on USFP?

5. Sapolsky, Gholz, Press: "Restraint"

a. Goals: Security and Prosperity

b. Means: Restraint

i. Goals for most strategies are the same but means and rationales differ

c. Rationales (why do it)..

i. Who's rationales are (more) correct? How to know?

d. Theoretical Pillars for Restraint

i. O/D balance

ii. BOT

iii. Nukes = Def Dom

e. What to do: Out of Europe, Our of Asia, Reduce in Gulf

f. Counterargs:

i. Sel Eng

ii. Primacy

iii. Prolif

iv. Values

v. Global Econ

vi. Restraint not possible

g. When to reengage...

6. Focus on Global Trends

a. Driver Recap

b. Future of Conflict

c. Regions

d. Future Scenarios

i. Table of 4 scenarios

324 USFP: Course Review

7. Theories and Concepts

a. What good are they?

8. Policy Process

a. Role of information

b. Who sets agenda?

c. Who makes policy?

9. History

a. Why is it important?

b. Patterns

c. Lessons and analogies

10. Policy Issues and Debates

a. Is the world becoming more dangerous?

b. What can we do about it?

11. Larger themes

a. Simple questions, basic facts

b. Sources of values and interest

i. head and heart; pain and pleasure

c. Do no harm