Lindley War Prediction Table, November 27, 2000

Factor Present? Russia? Elsewhere? (1) WWI
Rapidly shifting power? X
Arms races? X
All/Nothing mobilization? X
Offense dominance? (real and/or perceived) X
Tight alliances? X
Aggressive leadership? X
Militarism? X
Malignant nationalism? X
Identity/Ethnic issues?
Contested territory? ?
Ethnic brethren abroad?
State backed into corner? ?
Historical grievances? X
Malignant historical lessons and analogies? ?
Severe Misperceptions? X
Societal/Economic turmoil?
Factors particular (mostly) to ethnic conflict:
Media monopoly?
Weak social and political institutions?
Interspersed population?

Always Assess:

Useable Capability? X
Credible Intentions? X

Key: the more boxes you check, the more likely war becomes. Repeat exercise often to avoid surprise.

1. China? Terrorists? India/Pakistan? China/India? Middle East? Ethnic Groups?