Lindley War Prediction Table, November 27, 2000
|Factor Present?||Russia?||Elsewhere? (1)||WWI|
|Rapidly shifting power?||X|
|Offense dominance? (real and/or perceived)||X|
|Ethnic brethren abroad?|
|State backed into corner?||?|
|Malignant historical lessons and analogies?||?|
|Factors particular (mostly) to ethnic conflict:|
|Weak social and political institutions?|
Key: the more boxes you check, the more likely war becomes. Repeat exercise often to avoid surprise.
1. China? Terrorists? India/Pakistan? China/India? Middle East? Ethnic Groups?