Intro
In this game the player has to find out which disease is affecting a patient by looking at the results of several clinical tests of known statistical significance.
One out of three possible diseases can be selected, hence the name trilemma (choice among three possibilities).
The state of belief can be graphically represented on a triangle with vertexes A, B or C using three numbers that represent the probability associated with disease A, B or C (PrA, PrB and PrC), respectively.
The statistical significances for tests 1 to 8 are shown in a table and represent the probability that a patient with a given disease (A, B or C) will result positive to the test.
You have 8 possible clinical tests to choose from and based on the results of previous tests and the significance of tests still to be performed, determine the correct disease.
How to play
First, select one of the available patients (1,2 or 3). Once a patient is selected you need to reset the game before selecting another patient. The message panel will inform you if any invalid operation is performed.
Second, choose a clinical test. Clinical tests cannot be repeated for the same patient, so you can decide the order.
Remember that test results are affected by randomness therefore repeated test sequences may generate different outcomes.
Options
The use seed option will introduce a seed in the random number generator. Therefore, repeated sequences of clinical tests on the same patient will be forced to produce the same probabilities PrA, PrB and PrC.
Using Use Known Outcome option will produce pre-defined test results.
This option can be used to play the game of finding which sequence leads to the quickest assessment of the disease.
References
A reference for this game can be found here.
The diagnosis path for diagnosis results in Dunedin can be obtained by selecting Patient 1 and Use Known Outcome.
Solutions
Pass with the cursor over the text below to find out the correct diseases.
Patient 1 has disease A.
Patient 2 has disease B.
Patient 3 has disease C.