Research
Working Papers (most recent first):
6. "Unconventional
Monetary Policy According to HANK" with Cynthia Wu
and Ji Zhang, June 2022, pdf.
5. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks Using
the Central Bank's Information Set" with Ruediger
Bachmann and Isabel Goedl-Hanisch, November 2021, pdf.
4. "Wall Street QE vs. Main Street Lending"
with Cynthia Wu, July 2021, pdf.
3. "Bury the Gold Standard? A Quantitative
Exploration" with Anthony Diercks and Jonathan Rawls, June
2021, pdf.
2. "Can New Keynesian Models Survive the
Barro-King Curse?" with Guido Ascari and Louis Phaneuf, March
2019, pdf (also NBER
working paper #22941, link), revise
and resubmit.
1. "Growth or the Gap? Which Measure of Economic
Activity Should be Targeted in Interest Rate Rules?" November
2013, pdf.
Peer-Reviewed
Publications (most recent first):
24. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic
Conditions" with Christiane Baumeister and Danilo
Leiva-Leon, November 2021, pdf. Link to data
dashboard: link.
Accepted for publication, Review of Economics
and Statistics. Online appendix: pdf.
23. "The Four Equation New Keynesian Model" with
Cynthia Wu and Ji Zhang, June 2021,
pdf (previous
version NBER working paper #26067, link),
accepted for publication, Review of Economics and
Statistics. Online appendix: pdf.
22. "Revisions in
Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News
Shocks" with Andre Kurmann, May 2021, pdf (also NBER working
paper #23142, link), Review
of Economics and Statistics 103(2):
216-235.
Online appendix: pdf.
Link to published version: link.
21. "Evaluating Central Banks' Tool Kit: Past,
Present, and Future" with Cynthia Wu, March 2021, pdf (also NBER working paper
#26040, link),
Journal of Monetary Economics 118: 135-160.
Link to published version: link.
20. "Are QE and Conventional
Monetary Policy Substitutable?" with Cynthia Wu, February
2020, pdf, International Journal of
Central Banking 16(1): 195-230. Link to published
version: link.
19. "Without
Looking Closer, it May Seem Cheap: Low Interest Rates and
Government Borrowing" with Julio Garin, Robert Lester, and
Jonathan Wolff, July 2019, pdf, Economics
Letters 180, 28-32. Link to published version:
link.
18. "Are Supply Shocks
Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted
TFP Data" with Julio Garin and Rob Lester, March 2019, pdf, Review of
Economics and Statistics 101(1): 160-175.
Link to published version: link.
17. "On the Welfare and Cyclical
Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation" with Guido
Ascari and Louis Phaneuf, November 2018, pdf, (also NBER WP #21392, link),
Journal of Monetary Economics (99), 56-71.
Link to published version: link.
16. "The Output
and Welfare Effects of Government Spending Shocks over the
Business Cycle" with Jonathan Wolff, August 2018, pdf, International
Economic Review 59(3), 1403-1435. Link to published
version: link.
Online appendix to accompany published version: pdf
15. "The State-Dependent
Effects of Tax Shocks" with Jonathan Wolff, August 2018,
pdf, European
Economic Review 107, 57-85. Link to published
version: link
14. "Inflation, Output, and Markup
Dynamics with Forward-Looking Wage and Price
Setters" with Louis Phaneuf and Jean Gardy Victor,
June 2018, pdf
(also NBER WP #21599, link),
European Economic Review 105, 115-134.
Link to published version: link
13. "Raise Rates to Raise
Inflation? Neo-Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model"
with Julio Garin and Rob Lester, February 2018, pdf, Journal of
Money, Credit and Banking 50(1), 243-259. Link to
published version: link
12. "The Relative Importance of Aggregate
and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic
Fluctuations" with Julio Garin and Michael Pries, January
2018, pdf, American
Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10(1),
119-148. Link to published version: link
11.
"State-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers: Calvo vs.
Rotemberg" with Jonathan Wolff, October 2017, pdf,
Economics Letters 159, 190-194. Online
appendix: pdf.
Link to published version: link
10.
"What's News in News? A Cautionary Note on Using a
Variance Decomposition to Assess the Quantitative
Importance of News Shocks" December 2016, pdf, Journal
of Economic Dynamics and Control 73, 41-60. Link to
published version: link
9. "On the Desirability of Nominal GDP
Targeting" with Julio Garin and Robert Lester, August
2016, pdf, Journal of
Economic Dynamics and Control 69, 21-44. Link to
published version: link
8. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness
to Spend at the Zero Lower Bound: Cross-Sectional Evidence"
with Rudi Bachmann and Tim Berg, February 2015, pdf, American
Economic Journal: Economic Policy 7(1), 1-35.
Link to published version: link
7. "Volatility and Welfare" with Robert Lester and
Michael Pries, January 2014, pdf, Journal
of Economic Dynamics and Control 38(1), 17-36.
Link to published version: link
6. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from
Business Survey Data" with Ruediger Bachmann and Steffen
Elstner, April 2013, pdf,
American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics 5(2), 217-249. Link to
published version: link
5. "News, Non-Invertibility, and Structural VARs"
2012, pdf, Advances in Econometrics 28, 81-136.
Link to published version: link
4. "Taylor Rules and Technology Shocks" July 2012, pdf, Economics Letters 116(1), 92-95. Link
to published version: link
3. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of
Innovations in Consumer Confidence" with Bob Barsky, pdf, June 2012, American Economic Review 102(4),
1343-1377. Link to published version: link
2. "Confidence and the Transmission of
Government Spending Shocks" with Ruediger Bachmann, April
2012, pdf,
Journal of Monetary
Economics 59(3), 235-249. Link to published
version: link
1. "News Shocks and Business Cycles"
with Bob Barsky, April 2011, pdf, Journal of Monetary Economics 58(3),
273-289. Link to published version: link
Other Publications:
2. "Federal Reserve
Policy in a World of Low Interest Rates" with Cynthia Wu,
October 2019, pdf,
forthcoming, Cato Journal
1. "Credit Market Frictions, Business Cycles, and Monetary
Policy: The Research Contributions of Charles Carlstrom and
Timothy Fuerst" with Todd Clark and Matthias Paustian, Federal
Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary 2020-07,
March 25, 2020, pdf
Resting Papers:
4. "Differences in Quarterly
Utilization-Adjusted TFP by Vintage, with an Application to
News Shocks" May 2016, pdf.
Link to different data by vintages and replication
materials, link (also NBER
WP #22154, link),
results subsumed in "Revisions in Utilization Adjusted TFP and
Robust Identification of News Shocks"
3. "Reallocation and the Changing Nature of Economic
Fluctuations" June 2013, with Mike Pries and Julio Garin, pdf, replaced by
"The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and
the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations"
2. "Permanent and Transitory Technology Shocks and
the Behavior of Hours: A Challenge for DSGE Models"
August 2011, pdf
1. "The Effects of Real Gasoline Prices on Automobile
Demand: A Structural Analysis Using Micro Data" with Lutz
Kilian, April 2006 pdf
Discussions:
7. Discussion of Bhandari,
Borovicka, and Ho, "Identifying Ambiguity Shocks in
Business Cycle Models Using Survey Data" at the Cowles
Summer Conference June 2017: pdf
6. Discussion of Crump, Eusepi, Tambalotti, and
Topa, "Subjective Intertemporal Substitution" at the 2016
spring NBER ME Meeting: pdf
5. Discussion of Basu and House,
"Challenges for New Keynesian Models with Sticky Wages"
for the Handbook of Macroeconomics, Volume 2
conference, April 2015: pdf
4. Discussion of Herrera, Jung,
and and Rosanna "Just-in-Time Inventories, Business
Cycles, and the Great Moderation" at 2015 ASSA
conference: pdf
3. Discussion of Hagedorn, Handbury, and Manovski, "Inflation
and Demand Stimulus: Empirical Evidence" for the 2014 St.
Louis Fed Fall Conference: pdf
2. Discussion of Baker, Bloom, and Davis
"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" at conference on
"Labor Markets and the Business Cycle in the Aftermath of the
Great Recession," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis,
2012: pdf
1. Discussion of Blanchard, L'Hullier, and Lorenzoni
"News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration" for
the summer 2009 NBER EF&G Meeting: pdf
Other:
My IDEAS page: link
My Google Scholar page: link