Working Papers (most recent first):
6. "Unconventional Monetary Policy According to HANK" with Cynthia Wu and Ji Zhang, June 2022, pdf.
5. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks Using the Central Bank's Information Set" with Ruediger Bachmann and Isabel Goedl-Hanisch, November 2021, pdf.
4. "Wall Street QE vs. Main Street Lending" with Cynthia Wu, July 2021, pdf.
3. "Bury the Gold Standard? A Quantitative Exploration" with Anthony Diercks and Jonathan Rawls, June 2021, pdf.
2. "Can New Keynesian Models Survive the Barro-King Curse?" with Guido Ascari and Louis Phaneuf, March 2019, pdf (also NBER working paper #22941, link), revise and resubmit.
1. "Growth or the Gap? Which Measure of Economic Activity Should be Targeted in Interest Rate Rules?" November 2013, pdf.
Peer-Reviewed
Publications (most recent first):
24. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions" with Christiane Baumeister and Danilo Leiva-Leon, November 2021, pdf. Link to data dashboard: link. Accepted for publication, Review of Economics and Statistics. Online appendix: pdf.
23. "The Four Equation New Keynesian Model" with Cynthia Wu and Ji Zhang, June 2021, pdf (previous version NBER working paper #26067, link), accepted for publication, Review of Economics and Statistics. Online appendix: pdf.
22. "Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks" with Andre Kurmann, May 2021, pdf (also NBER working paper #23142, link), Review of Economics and Statistics 103(2): 216-235. Online appendix: pdf. Link to published version: link.
21. "Evaluating Central Banks' Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future" with Cynthia Wu, March 2021, pdf (also NBER working paper #26040, link), Journal of Monetary Economics 118: 135-160. Link to published version: link.
20. "Are QE and Conventional Monetary Policy Substitutable?" with Cynthia Wu, February 2020, pdf, International Journal of Central Banking 16(1): 195-230. Link to published version: link.
19. "Without Looking Closer, it May Seem Cheap: Low Interest Rates and Government Borrowing" with Julio Garin, Robert Lester, and Jonathan Wolff, July 2019, pdf, Economics Letters 180, 28-32. Link to published version: link.
18. "Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data" with Julio Garin and Rob Lester, March 2019, pdf, Review of Economics and Statistics 101(1): 160-175. Link to published version: link.
17. "On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation" with Guido Ascari and Louis Phaneuf, November 2018, pdf, (also NBER WP #21392, link), Journal of Monetary Economics (99), 56-71. Link to published version: link.
16. "The Output and Welfare Effects of Government Spending Shocks over the Business Cycle" with Jonathan Wolff, August 2018, pdf, International Economic Review 59(3), 1403-1435. Link to published version: link. Online appendix to accompany published version: pdf
15. "The State-Dependent Effects of Tax Shocks" with Jonathan Wolff, August 2018, pdf, European Economic Review 107, 57-85. Link to published version: link
14. "Inflation, Output, and Markup Dynamics with Forward-Looking Wage and Price Setters" with Louis Phaneuf and Jean Gardy Victor, June 2018, pdf (also NBER WP #21599, link), European Economic Review 105, 115-134. Link to published version: link
13. "Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo-Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model" with Julio Garin and Rob Lester, February 2018, pdf, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 50(1), 243-259. Link to published version: link
12. "The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations" with Julio Garin and Michael Pries, January 2018, pdf, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10(1), 119-148. Link to published version: link
11. "State-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers: Calvo vs. Rotemberg" with Jonathan Wolff, October 2017, pdf, Economics Letters 159, 190-194. Online appendix: pdf. Link to published version: link
10. "What's News in News? A Cautionary Note on Using a Variance Decomposition to Assess the Quantitative Importance of News Shocks" December 2016, pdf, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 73, 41-60. Link to published version: link
9. "On the Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting" with Julio Garin and Robert Lester, August 2016, pdf, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 69, 21-44. Link to published version: link
8. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend at the Zero Lower Bound: Cross-Sectional Evidence" with Rudi Bachmann and Tim Berg, February 2015, pdf, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 7(1), 1-35. Link to published version: link
7. "Volatility and Welfare" with Robert Lester and Michael Pries, January 2014, pdf, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 38(1), 17-36. Link to published version: link
6. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data" with Ruediger Bachmann and Steffen Elstner, April 2013, pdf, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5(2), 217-249. Link to published version: link
5. "News, Non-Invertibility, and Structural VARs" 2012, pdf, Advances in Econometrics 28, 81-136. Link to published version: link
4. "Taylor Rules and Technology Shocks" July 2012, pdf, Economics Letters 116(1), 92-95. Link to published version: link
3. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence" with Bob Barsky, pdf, June 2012, American Economic Review 102(4), 1343-1377. Link to published version: link
2. "Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks" with Ruediger Bachmann, April 2012, pdf, Journal of Monetary Economics 59(3), 235-249. Link to published version: link
1. "News Shocks and Business Cycles" with Bob Barsky, April 2011, pdf, Journal of Monetary Economics 58(3), 273-289. Link to published version: link
Other Publications:
2. "Federal Reserve Policy in a World of Low Interest Rates" with Cynthia Wu, October 2019, pdf, forthcoming, Cato Journal
1. "Credit Market Frictions, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy: The Research Contributions of Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst" with Todd Clark and Matthias Paustian, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary 2020-07, March 25, 2020, pdf
Resting Papers:
4. "Differences in Quarterly Utilization-Adjusted TFP by Vintage, with an Application to News Shocks" May 2016, pdf. Link to different data by vintages and replication materials, link (also NBER WP #22154, link), results subsumed in "Revisions in Utilization Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks"
3. "Reallocation and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations" June 2013, with Mike Pries and Julio Garin, pdf, replaced by "The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations"
2. "Permanent and Transitory Technology Shocks and the Behavior of Hours: A Challenge for DSGE Models" August 2011, pdf
1. "The Effects of Real Gasoline Prices on Automobile Demand: A Structural Analysis Using Micro Data" with Lutz Kilian, April 2006 pdf
Discussions:
7. Discussion of Bhandari, Borovicka, and Ho, "Identifying Ambiguity Shocks in Business Cycle Models Using Survey Data" at the Cowles Summer Conference June 2017: pdf
6. Discussion of Crump, Eusepi, Tambalotti, and Topa, "Subjective Intertemporal Substitution" at the 2016 spring NBER ME Meeting: pdf
5. Discussion of Basu and House, "Challenges for New Keynesian Models with Sticky Wages" for the Handbook of Macroeconomics, Volume 2 conference, April 2015: pdf
4. Discussion of Herrera, Jung, and and Rosanna "Just-in-Time Inventories, Business Cycles, and the Great Moderation" at 2015 ASSA conference: pdf
3. Discussion of Hagedorn, Handbury, and Manovski, "Inflation and Demand Stimulus: Empirical Evidence" for the 2014 St. Louis Fed Fall Conference: pdf
2. Discussion of Baker, Bloom, and Davis "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" at conference on "Labor Markets and the Business Cycle in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 2012: pdf
1. Discussion of Blanchard, L'Hullier, and Lorenzoni "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration" for the summer 2009 NBER EF&G Meeting: pdf
Other:
My IDEAS page: link
My Google Scholar page: link
24. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions" with Christiane Baumeister and Danilo Leiva-Leon, November 2021, pdf. Link to data dashboard: link. Accepted for publication, Review of Economics and Statistics. Online appendix: pdf.
23. "The Four Equation New Keynesian Model" with Cynthia Wu and Ji Zhang, June 2021, pdf (previous version NBER working paper #26067, link), accepted for publication, Review of Economics and Statistics. Online appendix: pdf.
22. "Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks" with Andre Kurmann, May 2021, pdf (also NBER working paper #23142, link), Review of Economics and Statistics 103(2): 216-235. Online appendix: pdf. Link to published version: link.
21. "Evaluating Central Banks' Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future" with Cynthia Wu, March 2021, pdf (also NBER working paper #26040, link), Journal of Monetary Economics 118: 135-160. Link to published version: link.
20. "Are QE and Conventional Monetary Policy Substitutable?" with Cynthia Wu, February 2020, pdf, International Journal of Central Banking 16(1): 195-230. Link to published version: link.
19. "Without Looking Closer, it May Seem Cheap: Low Interest Rates and Government Borrowing" with Julio Garin, Robert Lester, and Jonathan Wolff, July 2019, pdf, Economics Letters 180, 28-32. Link to published version: link.
18. "Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data" with Julio Garin and Rob Lester, March 2019, pdf, Review of Economics and Statistics 101(1): 160-175. Link to published version: link.
17. "On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation" with Guido Ascari and Louis Phaneuf, November 2018, pdf, (also NBER WP #21392, link), Journal of Monetary Economics (99), 56-71. Link to published version: link.
16. "The Output and Welfare Effects of Government Spending Shocks over the Business Cycle" with Jonathan Wolff, August 2018, pdf, International Economic Review 59(3), 1403-1435. Link to published version: link. Online appendix to accompany published version: pdf
15. "The State-Dependent Effects of Tax Shocks" with Jonathan Wolff, August 2018, pdf, European Economic Review 107, 57-85. Link to published version: link
14. "Inflation, Output, and Markup Dynamics with Forward-Looking Wage and Price Setters" with Louis Phaneuf and Jean Gardy Victor, June 2018, pdf (also NBER WP #21599, link), European Economic Review 105, 115-134. Link to published version: link
13. "Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo-Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model" with Julio Garin and Rob Lester, February 2018, pdf, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 50(1), 243-259. Link to published version: link
12. "The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations" with Julio Garin and Michael Pries, January 2018, pdf, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10(1), 119-148. Link to published version: link
11. "State-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers: Calvo vs. Rotemberg" with Jonathan Wolff, October 2017, pdf, Economics Letters 159, 190-194. Online appendix: pdf. Link to published version: link
10. "What's News in News? A Cautionary Note on Using a Variance Decomposition to Assess the Quantitative Importance of News Shocks" December 2016, pdf, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 73, 41-60. Link to published version: link
9. "On the Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting" with Julio Garin and Robert Lester, August 2016, pdf, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 69, 21-44. Link to published version: link
8. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend at the Zero Lower Bound: Cross-Sectional Evidence" with Rudi Bachmann and Tim Berg, February 2015, pdf, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 7(1), 1-35. Link to published version: link
7. "Volatility and Welfare" with Robert Lester and Michael Pries, January 2014, pdf, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 38(1), 17-36. Link to published version: link
6. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data" with Ruediger Bachmann and Steffen Elstner, April 2013, pdf, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5(2), 217-249. Link to published version: link
5. "News, Non-Invertibility, and Structural VARs" 2012, pdf, Advances in Econometrics 28, 81-136. Link to published version: link
4. "Taylor Rules and Technology Shocks" July 2012, pdf, Economics Letters 116(1), 92-95. Link to published version: link
3. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence" with Bob Barsky, pdf, June 2012, American Economic Review 102(4), 1343-1377. Link to published version: link
2. "Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks" with Ruediger Bachmann, April 2012, pdf, Journal of Monetary Economics 59(3), 235-249. Link to published version: link
1. "News Shocks and Business Cycles" with Bob Barsky, April 2011, pdf, Journal of Monetary Economics 58(3), 273-289. Link to published version: link
Other Publications:
2. "Federal Reserve Policy in a World of Low Interest Rates" with Cynthia Wu, October 2019, pdf, forthcoming, Cato Journal
1. "Credit Market Frictions, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy: The Research Contributions of Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst" with Todd Clark and Matthias Paustian, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary 2020-07, March 25, 2020, pdf
Resting Papers:
4. "Differences in Quarterly Utilization-Adjusted TFP by Vintage, with an Application to News Shocks" May 2016, pdf. Link to different data by vintages and replication materials, link (also NBER WP #22154, link), results subsumed in "Revisions in Utilization Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks"
3. "Reallocation and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations" June 2013, with Mike Pries and Julio Garin, pdf, replaced by "The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations"
2. "Permanent and Transitory Technology Shocks and the Behavior of Hours: A Challenge for DSGE Models" August 2011, pdf
1. "The Effects of Real Gasoline Prices on Automobile Demand: A Structural Analysis Using Micro Data" with Lutz Kilian, April 2006 pdf
Discussions:
7. Discussion of Bhandari, Borovicka, and Ho, "Identifying Ambiguity Shocks in Business Cycle Models Using Survey Data" at the Cowles Summer Conference June 2017: pdf
6. Discussion of Crump, Eusepi, Tambalotti, and Topa, "Subjective Intertemporal Substitution" at the 2016 spring NBER ME Meeting: pdf
5. Discussion of Basu and House, "Challenges for New Keynesian Models with Sticky Wages" for the Handbook of Macroeconomics, Volume 2 conference, April 2015: pdf
4. Discussion of Herrera, Jung, and and Rosanna "Just-in-Time Inventories, Business Cycles, and the Great Moderation" at 2015 ASSA conference: pdf
3. Discussion of Hagedorn, Handbury, and Manovski, "Inflation and Demand Stimulus: Empirical Evidence" for the 2014 St. Louis Fed Fall Conference: pdf
2. Discussion of Baker, Bloom, and Davis "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" at conference on "Labor Markets and the Business Cycle in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 2012: pdf
1. Discussion of Blanchard, L'Hullier, and Lorenzoni "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration" for the summer 2009 NBER EF&G Meeting: pdf
Other:
My IDEAS page: link
My Google Scholar page: link