COVID-19's Impact On US Economy

Project Description

This project visualizes changes in the United States economy by sector and location to examine in particular the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our data set spans 2005 to 2021 Q3 by quarter, but we will focus in particular on the changes from 2018 to 2021.

Industry

The following graphs display how the output of each U.S. industry has changed over time and demonstrate the effects of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2). The output of these graphs is expressed in 2012 chain dollars seasonally adjusted at annual rates

Analysis

This graph displays the change in output for industries across the U.S. economy from 2018 to 2021 (use the play/pause buttons to animate). Industries with a 2021 Q3 output above 1.5 trillion are excluded. The widespread impact on the economy can be readily seen in 2020 especially in the manufacturing of motor vehicles and in the accommodation and food industries.

Industry Graphs By Sector

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Overview
This graph displays the overall economic impact of and recovery from COVID-19.

Analysis
Food, entertainment and recreation industries were likely affected drastically by lockdown, social distancing, and masking requirements. The output of petroleum and coal products, oil and gas, mining, and motor vehicles were likely affected by lockdowns and closed borders leading to a decreased demand for travel and cars. Air transportation suffered due to decreased commercial travel and tourism.

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Analysis
Essential and rural industries such as farming, fishing, hunting, forestry, and agriculture seem to be only minorly affected, while less essential industries such as mining and industries connected to the decreased demand for transportation like oil and gas extraction saw larger (likely demand side) impacts during COVID-19.

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Analysis
Utilities and the manufacturing of most durable goods were not drastically affected by COVID since the demand for these goods and services remains fairly constant over time. The production of motor vehicles, bodies and trailers, other parts, and other transportation equipment, however, did decline as individuals remained at home and driving decreased. This could also have been affected by increased chip cost needed to produce modern cars.

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Analysis
The overall output of industrial sectors did not see huge decreases especially in construction which saw only a small drop which could also have been tied to increased lumber prices.

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Analysis
The output of large nondurables fluctuates highly over time, but petroleum and coal especially saw huge losses over COVID.

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Analysis
Small nondurables remained largely unaffected by COVID. These materials are ubiquitous and degrade quickly so they constantly need to be produced and replaced.

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Analysis
Although industries related to movies did take a hit as theaters closed or were avoided, most informational industries actually benefited from COVID. Data processing and internet publishing especially accelerated over 2020 as individuals reminded home and spent more time online.

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Analysis
Retail and trade saw some losses, but did not suffer as greatly as one may expect. It is likely that losses due to decreased in person shopping were replaced by online orders and pickup and to-go orders.

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Analysis
Real estate and leasing saw small dips, but housing experienced no noticeable shift during COVID-19. This could be because of the necessity of housing, while the small changes to real estate and leasing could be because people were less inclined to move during the uncertainty brought about by the pandemic.

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Analysis
Most of these sectors’ outputs increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. The demand for financial and insurance services seems to be highly inelastic since people are unlikely to change their finances in banks and insurance agencies without significant cause. A health crisis also could have caused some to increase their insurance policies. Institutions regarding investments could also have been more widely used since the wildly fluctuating markets required changes in investment portfolios.

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Analysis
Most sectors of transportation took a large hit during the pandemic. This is because people traveled much less during the stay-at-home orders. Air travel took the highest hit, likely because international flights underwent widespread restrictions and it is easier for airborne transmission of the virus on planes.

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Analysis
These sectors did not undergo very substantial changes during the pandemic. Because so many jobs were moved remote the need for computer services would remain constant.

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Analysis
Management and Waste sectors experienced few dips during the pandemic; however, the larger dips are on the administrative side. Management and waste services are necessary for most businesses, so it makes sense that these sectors did not experience large decreases in output.

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Analysis
These sectors had minor dips during the COVID-19 pandemic, the largest of which was health care. While the pandemic created an increased need for very specialized health care, because people stayed at home, motor vehicle collisions and other emergencies decreased, so there was less demand for ambulances. Many hospitals also decreased their capacities and cancelled elective (or non-emergent) surgeries, which decreased revenue. Additionally, hospitals lost much of their staff due to vaccine mandates and immunocompromised, so they had to shell out more money to employees. The need for education and social assistance remained even as many schools moved online.

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Analysis
These sectors all experienced large dips during the pandemic. This is likely due to them being unnecessary in some cases, so people were much less inclined to seek them out while stay-at-home orders were in place.

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Analysis
The sectors on this graph portray slight fluctuations during COVID-19 with a slight upward trend. This could be explained by the many political emergencies that needed to be taken care of along with the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Analysis
The federal governmental sectors displayed on this graph do not experience much change during the COVID-19 pandemic. This could be due to necessary spending that could not be compromised even during a health crisis.

States

These graphs examine how each US state's economy was affected differently during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Analysis

The most impacted states were Hawaii, Nevada, Connecticut, Wyoming, Alaska, and Louisiana in that order. Since air travel was so heavily impacted by the pandemic, states with tourism as a large part of their economies suffered most. In particular, according to a Stateline analysis of the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis, Hawaii and Nevada ...have by far the largest economic dependence on tourism and Louisiana also has high tourism. Mining, also largely affected, is a large portion of the economic output of Wyoming and Alaska. Furthermore, a large majority of Alaska’s GDP comes from oil and gas production which saw an 18.55% decrease in output from Q1 to Q2 of 2020. According to the official state website of Connecticut, Connecticut’s economy relies heavily on manufacturing industries—especially those related to transportation. The transportation sector was among the most affected, so this could correlate to the large impact COVID-19 had on Connecticut’s GDP. One of Louisiana’s largest sectors is the manufacturing of coal and petroleum products. On the other hand, the least affected states were South Dakota and Utah. The largest sector contributing to South Dakota’s GDP is finance, which increased output nationally during the pandemic (IBISWorld). Utah has a diverse economy that includes well performing industries such as finance and information technology as well as poor performing industries such as tourism, mining, and petroleum production. Its reliance on the former, however, seems to have prevented drastic impacts to its economy.

Analysis

The top sectors for both best performing states, Tennessee and New Hampshire are health care and social assistance, retail trade and professional, scientific, and technical services. These services recovered quickly after lockdowns ended and likely had makeup sales such as delayed surgeries and individuals taking advantage of being able to shop in person again.

Analysis

Worst performing states include Iowa (with no improvement), Maine, Alaska, and Florida in that order. Seasonal immigration aside, many agricultural jobs in rural states like Iowa likely remained stable. Furthermore, it is likely that some rural states recovered too quickly to be noticeable in our data which only takes into account the change from ...November 2020 to november 2021 and does not provide insight on what happened with jobs during the initial lockdowns in March 2020. The same quick recovery story may hold in Maine which lifted capacity and distancing restraints by May 13 and has a entertainment and food heavy economy. The data seems to be accurate regarding Florida’s recovery, however, as Florida’s case numbers did not peak till the beginning of 2022 due to minimal restrictions and the abundance of travel into the state both for vacation and winter homes.

Sources

“Bureau of Economic Analysis.” U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/.

“Coronavirus Will Slam States Dependent On Tourism.” The Pew Charitable Trusts, https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2020/03/16/coronavirus-will-slam-states-dependent-on-tourism.

“Economy of Louisiana.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., https://www.britannica.com/place/Louisiana-state/Economy.

“Economy.” CT.gov, https://portal.ct.gov/About/Economy.

“Maine Industry Market Research, Reports, and Statistics.” IBISWorld, https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/economic-profiles/maine/.

“Maine Response Timeline.” Maine.gov COVID-19, https://www.maine.gov/covid19/timeline.

“South Dakota Industry Market Research, Reports, and Statistics.” IBISWorld, https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/economic-profiles/south-dakota/#:~:text=Overview%20of%20the%20South%20Dakota%20Economy&text=The%20top%20three%20employment%20sectors,in%20March%202020%20was%205.3%25.

“Tennessee Industry Market Research, Reports, and Statistics.” IBISWorld, https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/economic-profiles/new-hampshire/.

About

This investigation on the effect of COVID-19 on the U. S. economy was completed as a final project in the EG10118 - Engineering Computing class at the University of Notre Dame. The project team consisted of William Hoppe (whoppe@nd.edu) and Patrick Schlosser (pschloss@nd.edu). The data was parsed through using Python in Google Colab and used to generate Plotly visuzalizations. These graphs and images were then converted into html divs and inserted into our website design. The website was created using Atom and Bootstrapr.io. Created 3 May 2022.