Syllabus

Spring 2005:
Instructor: Professor Barry Keating
Office: 226 Mendoza College of Business
Business Forecasting (FIN 480/602/602a)
Syllabus -- Spring 2005: Jump to Assignment Sheet directly.

Textbook: J. Holton Wilson and Barry Keating. Business Forecasting, Fourth Edition
(McGraw Hill/Irwin, 2001) ISBN 0-07-252646-7

ForecastX For Excel (statistical software available in the Notre Dame Campus Clusters and the London computing cluster - also included with the textbook)

A calculator can be a valuable resource in this course (especially for exams). You are allowed to use a calculator on the exams. The most useful calculators for this course are programmable calculators.

Forecasts may be either subjective or objective. A subjective forecast can be prepared by reading extensively about a situation and the economy, and then combining this information through some unspecified judgement process to come up with a forecast. A disadvantage of this form of forecasting is that there is no systematic way to improve forecast accuracy by learning "correct" techniques.

The objective approach to forecasting, on the other hand, involves developing a model which is generally constructed by studying past relationships between the item to be forecast and the factors thought to affect it. Objective forecasting methods have several advantages over the subjective variety. Because they are objective, the forecasts are not affected by what the forecaster wishes the outcome to be. Many of the objective methods also include processes by which the forecasting model learns from its past errors. Perhaps most importantly, objective methods provide a basis for evaluating forecast accuracy and for developing confidence ranges for forecasts. This course concentrates on these objective methods of forecasting.

Economic forecasting in general, and this course in particular, are designed to explain the nature of the real world; the intent here is to integrate theory and application. Theory is only justified by its power of application in this course.

All forecasting problems can be divided into three types. The first type involves forecasting the amount of something, e.g., sales, customers served, birth rates, or stock prices. The second type of forecast involves the timing of some event, such as the date on which a machine part will fail. The third type of forecast involves the probability of some events occurring, such as the probability of rain on July 15 of next year. This course will concentrate on the first of these types of forecasts -- forecasts of amounts. These are the most common of forecasting problems encountered in business. There is a certification process available to forecasters much like the Certified Financial Analyst designation or the Certified Professional Accountant designation. The Certified Professional Forecaster designation is available through the Institute for Business Forecasting.

Attendance:

Regular attendance is essential to the successful completion of this course. Attendance will regularly be taken and you are responsible for material covered in class whether or not you have attended class. Missing more than three class sessions (for any reason) will result in an automatic reduction in course grade. Unsatisfactory attendance may result in a failing grade. You should plan on spending at least two hours of independent study for each hour of class attendance.

Grading:

A course grade will be assigned on the basis of student performance on two examinations, a final examination, assignments, and textbook problems. The assignments and textbook problems will be presented in class.

Assignments/Problems/Class Participation 35%
First Midterm Exam 20%
Second Midterm Exam 20%
Final (comprehensive) Exam 25%

Assignments/Problems

On the attached "assignment sheet" you will find a class-by-class list of topics to be covered and your reading assignment. Reading assignments in the textbook are to be completed before the class day under which they are listed in the assignment sheet. Problem assignments are to be completed on the date listed and the solutions will be presented by selected students to the class on transparencies for projection (with the transparencies presented to the instructor immediately after the presentation).

Assignments (essentially longer problems, directed exercises, or reviews of articles presented in class) will be assigned for most of the topics covered and will be presented by students in class. The class presentation of assignments and textbook problems (using transparencies) is an important and integral part of the course.

In Class presentations will be evaluated according to a rubric.

Midterm Examinations

Each of these examinations will be a full-period examination of essentially a problem-solving nature; problems will be similar to those in the textbook. Because of the technical nature of these examinations, students are allowed to use calculators. These examinations, however, are to be completed without reference to the textbook, class notes or any other materials. The tests may also include a practicum using the econometric modeling software assigned for class use.

Sample Test Questions

Final Comprehensive Examination

A comprehensive final examination will be administered during the "final examination period" of the university at the Registrar's selected time and date:

Monday May 2, 2005 for the all sections in DeBartolo 138 (see below).

Sample Test Questions

THE Project

Note: The 2005 undergraduate students will not have a project!

The following applies to students registered for Fin 602 or Fin 602a.

This is both a final exercise for the course and an ongoing effort throughout the semester. The project involves gathering and analyzing data. The project will be summarized in a multimedia display for class presentation late in the semester; a written report will also be required. Complete guidelines for the project are available on the homepage under term projects.

Missing Assignments

Assignments turned in late (that is, after the class meeting time on the assigned due date), without a valid University approved excuse, will receive a grade of zero.

Assignment Sheet

(Lecture Slides Here)

Final Examination for All Sections of Business Forecasting:
Monday May 2, 2005
7:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m.
Room 138 DeBartolo

Sample Test Questions

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